"With live fire being deployed on a widespread basis in Myanmar since a military coup on February 1, the generals who seized power have lived up to fears that they would resort to lethal force against their own citizens. Early restraint in the face of peaceful protesters has been replaced with bullets, and security forces have killed more than 50 people to date. Several victims were killed by shots to the head -- a sign that the troops were shooting to kill as part of their intensifying crackdown that also has included curfews and nightly internet shutdowns, armored vehicles and armed troops on the streets and draconian laws limiting freedom of speech and assembly. Predictably, the coup and the violence against unarmed civilians triggered international condemnation, new sanctions by the US, the UK and Canada and threats of sanctions from the European Union. But statements like these have done little more than highlight just how limited the world's diplomatic arsenal is against crises of this nature -- especially when most governments are battling the Covid-19 pandemic or trying to revive their sagging economies and Myanmar's military leaders seem not to care about returning their country to pariahdom. "The army in Myanmar has a long track record of not listening to the outside world, not caring what people think, simply living off, in a vicarious way, the isolation that is then imposed," Southeast Asia expert Michael Vatikiotis told me. Indeed, it is hard to see how international opprobrium or even sanctions -- a blunt and controversial tool with a limited record of success -- are likely to convince the generals to release the government leaders they're detaining and accept that the military lost last November's election. Nor are measures against the military likely to get backing from China and Russia, which have taken a softer line to responding to the coup. So is there anything that could persuade the generals to back down? Myanmar is a member of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the political bloc that probably has the most influence over the generals. So far the bloc has failed to unite behind a strong call of action, but it's high time it did. If member countries such as Thailand begin to see a flood of refugees, transforming the unrest into a regional crisis, that could force ASEAN to relax its policy of non-interference in the affairs of member states and take a strong stance against the junta -- something it should do nonetheless for the sake of ASEAN's own credibility..."