A fitting way
for Burma to re-enter the world
By Mike Jendrzejczyk
WASHINGTON: Will Burma's military rulers mark the new millennium by
returning the country to civilian government and adopting a "pro-people stance,"
as recommended by the World Bank and the United Nations? Much will depend on the
actions of Japan, historically Burma's largest bilateral aid donor.
A
breakthrough will also require new flexibility by the Burmese government - and
by Western governments.
Japan's prime minister, Keizo Obuchi, has
clearly signalled Tokyo's interest in trying to rekindle democracy and respect
for human rights. He broke a 15-year taboo on high-level contacts with the
Burmese regime when he met General Than Shwe in Manila in November.
That
was followed by a "private" visit to Rangoon by former Prime Minister Ryutato
Hashimoto. He reinforced the message that resumption of large-scale aid,
suspended after the bloody military crackdown on anti-government demonstrations
in 1988, could occur in exchange for "visible" signs of political and economic
change.
Perhaps the generals were paying attention. The ruling State
Peace and Development Council delivered on a promise to Mr Hashimoto. Late last
month it began reopening universities that had been closed for three years. The
gesture fell far short of what was needed, but kept Japan's diplomatic
initiative alive.
The real test is yet to come for both the regime and
the opposition National League for Democracy led by the Nobel Peace laureate Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi. They must find a way to talk to each other.
Japan
could help bridge the gap if it could convince the regime to cooperate fully
with a joint effort by the United Nations and the World Bank. Tokyo can credibly
use the carrot of new bilateral loans, as well as the possibility of renewed
international lending. But Japan needs to be more explicit about the kinds of
changes it expects.
There is an urgent need to develop a road map.
The elements of a reform programme have been laid out. In the fall, the
UN General Assembly adopted a tough resolution urging the government to end
persecution of the league, open a "substantive political dialogue" with the
opposition and cease "widespread and systematic use" of forced labour,
especially in ethnic minority areas. The UN secretary-general's envoy went to
Burma in October, along with a World Bank official, but talks with the
government were inconclusive.
As reported by the International Herald
Tribune, the World Bank's latest report on Burma recommends crucial economic
reforms, coupled with political change, to reverse the country's slide into
poverty and misery. The regime has invited the bank to send a mission to Rangoon
for discussions, and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has been consulted by the bank on the
report's findings.
But talks between Burma's leaders and officials of
the United Nations or the bank will go nowhere unless Rangoon is ready to embark
on a reform path. Lifting restrictions on free _expression_ and assembly, and
releasing political prisoners, would be obvious first steps as
confidence-building measures. For meaningful dialogue between the government and
the opposition, there must be a climate of goodwill on both sides.
Concrete action by Burma could trigger a response by others in addition
to Japan. For example, if Burma took effective action to end the use of forced
labour, and this could be independently verified, the European Union could
reinstate trade preferences for Burma's agricultural and industrial exports,
suspended in 1997. The International Labour Organization could reverse its de
facto expulsion of Burma last year.
The Clinton administration could
consider lifting some US sanctions if all harassment and jailing of league
members ended (although providing direct aid to the government would not be an
option). In general, it may be useful for the United States to continue playing
the role of "bad cop" to Japan's "good cop." Yet Washington, too, must be
flexible. An incremental approach to sanctions is likely to be more effective.
Burma might not be ready to shed its international pariah status. But an
end to repression there would be a fitting way to start the new century, with
the long-suffering people of Burma as the greatest beneficiaries.-Dawn/The
International Herald Tribune News Service.
|