The Burmese junta?s failure to honor the spirit and letter of ceasefire agreements could be a roadmap to disaster... "Since seizing power in 1988, Burma?s State Law and Order Restoration Council—now the State Peace and Development Council—has brokered numerous ceasefire agreements with some of the country?s strongest armed ethnic minority groups. These groups have signed on with the regime in the interests of peace and reconciliation, while other groups have resisted the temptation to think that Burma?s ruling junta would ever keep its word. Recent developments suggest that such suspicions are certainly not misplaced. Burma?s ceasefire groups today face an increasingly untenable position. Mixed signals from Rangoon have left them in disarray as the junta makes gestures of peace with one hand and tightens its grip with the other. Government forces have increased their numbers in recent months in Karen, Kachin and Shan states and other ethnic areas. Despite proud claims of bringing peace to much of the country?s war-torn areas, it seems that Rangoon?s War Office has misrepresented the situation. An October 2005 report by the Human Security Centre, titled ?Human Security Report: War and Peace in the 21st Century,? ranks Burma at the top of its list of ?conflict-prone? countries, ahead of Israel, Iraq and several African nations. The report—three years in the making—covers the years between 1946 and 2003, in which Burma was engaged in 232 armed conflicts..."