Resolving the Northern Stalemate is the Key to Peace in Myanmar

Description: 

"Angshuman Choudhury considers options for the government in engaging with a new ethnic umbrella group...On 11-12 November, a delegation of senior government officials led by the Union Minister for Border Affairs, Lt-Gen Ye Aung, met with members of Myanmar?s largest Ethnic Armed Organisation (EAO), the United Wa State Army (UWSA), and its smaller ally, the National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA, also known as the Mongla Army), in the de facto Wa capital of Pangkham and Mongla Special Region-4, respectively. A large part of the discussions involved each party laying on the table their agenda for the ongoing ethnic peace process. This was a much-awaited icebreaker that came months after failed attempts by Naypyidaw to arrange talks with the northern groups that continue to dismiss the Nationwide Ceasefire Accord (NCA) ? the foundation of the current peace process? and flag their alternate framework for dialogue under a new alliance of seven non-ceasefire EAOs, known as the Federal Political Negotiation and Consultative Committee (FPNCC). The discussions that transpired indicate how differently the northern groups perceive the peace process and the federal imagination as compared to the union centres of power. Clearly, the FPNCC is a fresh challenge for the government, and could decisively stymie the already jittery relationship between the civilian government of State Counsellor (SC) Aung San Suu Kyi, the Tatmadaw (military), and the non-ceasefire EAOs. Insofar as the union government?s agenda for ethnic reconciliation is concerned, there is little doubt that the north, where the most powerful rebel armies operate, holds the key to a permanent negotiated settlement. There are few regions in the country where the need for de-escalation is as urgent as in the north, which has been ravaged by unprecedented levels of conflict for the past two years. Yet, the conditions for peace remain obscure as ever ? a point only reaffirmed by the recent meeting...What Happened At the Meeting? First, the FPNCC expressed that it wants to follow its own dialogue framework while the government and Tatmadaw insisted that all parties stick to the NCA. The two processes seem to be at serious loggerheads, especially in light of the recently-released FPNCC charter that proposes extensive devolution of powers to individual ?nations? within the Union? an agenda that radically challenges the centripetal sentiments of Naypyidaw?s ruling elite. There is little chance that the Tatmadaw would take up such a de-centralised model for discussion anytime soon. Second, the UWSA and NDAA insist that the government talk to them as a single group (i.e., as the FPNCC) along with the other EAOs, but the government/Tatmadaw side prefers individual meetings for reasons that are fairly obvious..."

Creator/author: 

Angshuman Choudhury

Source/publisher: 

teacircleoxford

Date of Publication: 

2017-11-28

Date of entry: 

2017-12-08

Grouping: 

  • Individual Documents

Category: 

Language: 

English

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