Studies on the Burmese economy by individual Burmese economists
Individual Documents
Description:
"Measuring Economic Governance for Private Sector Development
The Economic Governance Index (EGI) is a tool that has become widely accepted by governments to understand economic growth, attract investors, and engage in public-private sector dialogue. The Myanmar Business Environment Index (MBEI) follows in this tradition by adapting the EGI model to the Myanmar context. The MBEI is designed to provide Union and state/region government leaders, as well as stakeholders such as business managers, with a tool to understand and address the challenges Myanmar businesses face, and thereby encourage sustainable and inclusive economic growth..."
Edmund Malesky, Dean Dulay, "Pyinsa Yupa"
Source/publisher:
The Asia Foundation
Date of publication:
2019-05-06
Date of entry/update:
2019-05-06
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Individual Documents
Language:
English
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5.22 MB
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"...The realities that will define Myanmar?s political economy in the medium-term future seem to be coming into focus. For foreign firms and governments and international organizations that take Southeast Asia seriously, whose understanding of the region transcends the level that one associates with, say, the leadership of American chambers of commerce in Southeast Asian capitals or the pampered, parochial globalists-in-their-own-minds who staff the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, this is good news.
... The high Cold War in Southeast Asia is long over. But the country is beginning to present what look like familiar, even generic, contours of post-Cold War Southeast Asian political economies. It is worth tracing some eight of these contours..."
Myaungmya Aung Myint Myat (plus comments)
Source/publisher:
"New Mandala"
Date of publication:
2012-07-02
Date of entry/update:
2012-07-04
Grouping:
Individual Documents
Language:
English
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"...the resumption of ODA flows, even if they were to come in substantial amounts, might not by themselves, help to improve the welfare of the ordinary people of Myanmar – particularly welfare of the large majority of poor people at the bottom of the income scale..."
Source/publisher:
WORKSHOP ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT Traders Hotel, Yangon
Date of publication:
2012-03-01
Date of entry/update:
2012-03-18
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Individual Documents
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English
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INTRODUCTION:
"When Myanmar (then known as Burma) attained its independence in
1948, international agencies identified it as one of the most
promising regional candidates for economic take off. Its modern
technical and university education system, high rate of
literacy, well trained civil service and a cadre of educated
middle class, basic infrastructure, and a well run legal system
were considered as good ingredients for Myanmar?s expected take
off. In the 1950s, Myanmar?s gross domestic product (GDP) was
growing consistently at an annual average rate of over 4 per
cent, in contrast with the chequered performance of its
neighbours. In the early 1960s, the country was poised for
labour intensive industrialization with a number of textile and
consumer product firms manufacturing export quality goods. Then
came the putsch and the socialist revolution, followed by
stagnation and decline. Twenty six years passed before Myanmar
finally erupted and the change to market economy was forcibly
brought in. Myanmar is now in the throes of the struggle for
modernization and change. With the military still holding on to
the reins of power on the one hand and the contending democratic
opposition and the ethnic groups with diverse claims and
interests on the other, Myanmar has not come out of its pains of
growing up, to meet the challenges of the outside world.
This paper will review significant developments and changes
in 1993 and re examine the complex of situations influencing its
sluggish economic performance and the equally slow rate of
political transformation. Myanmar?s problems and prospects for
long term development and modernization are also analysed."
Khin Maung Kyi
Source/publisher:
"Southeast Asian Affairs" 1994,
Date of publication:
1993-00-00
Date of entry/update:
2012-01-03
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Individual Documents
Language:
English
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215.33 KB
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"..The objective of this report is to help the policy makers with an analysis of the
international sanctions effect and to try to explain the real current economic and social
conditions, impact on and Burma?s urgent need to combat poverty. Moreover, also try
to present the relationship between macro economic situation such as economic
growth, foreign trade, state budget, inflation, employment, wages and the conditions
of freedom, equity, security and human dignity in Burma. In addition, to explain how
the Burmese generals and their crony drug lords exploit the Burmese economy, and
how the Burmese military has become the sole beneficiary of foreign direct investment
by setting up its own industries separately from the state enterprises since 1988. And
also would like to explain the impact on the military?s confiscation of land, labor, crops
and capital assets or militarization on the whole economy..."
Sein Htay
Source/publisher:
Federation of Trade Unions-Burma (FTUB)
Date of publication:
2002-05-06
Date of entry/update:
2011-12-30
Grouping:
Individual Documents
Language:
English
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1.28 MB
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A number of papers in English and Burmese on the Irrawaddy hydro projects. In a day or so there will be a neater and lighter version, with some details of the Burmese and English contents
အမှတ် (၁) လျှပ်စစ်စွမ်းအားဝန်ကြီးဌာန-Minister for Electric Power No (1)... ပညာရပ်ဆိုင်ရာ အလုပ်ရုံဆွေးနွေးပွဲ (၃/ ၂၀၁၁) ... ၂၀၁၁ ခုနှစ် စက်တင်ဘာလ (၁၇) ရက် ... ဧရာဝတီမြစ်ဝှမ်း ရေအားလျှပ်စစ် စီမံကိန်း များကြောင့် ဧရာဝတီမြစ်နှင့် သဘာဝပတ်ဝန်းကျင် အပေါ် သက်ရောက်မှု အလုပ်ရုံဆွေးနွေးပွဲ... ၃/ ၂၀၁၁ အလုပ်ရုံ ဆွေးနွေးပွဲ ဖွင့်လှစ်ကြောင်း ကြေငြာခြင်း... အမှတ်(၁) လျှပ်စစ်စွမ်းအားဝန်ကြီးဌာန၊ ပြည်ထောင်စုဝန်ကြီးမှ အဖွင့် အမှာစကား ပြောကြားခြင်း... BANCA ဥက္ကဋ္ဌ ဒေါက်တာထင်လှ မှ ဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... CPIYN President Mr. Li Guanghua မှ ဆွေးနွေးခြင်း ... ရေအားလျှပ်စစ်စီမံရေး ဦးစီးဌာန၊ ညွှန်ကြားရေးမှူးချုပ်၊ ဦးကြီးစိုးမှ ဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... ကောင်းကျော်စေ ကုမ္ပဏီမှ Chairman/ CEO ဦးထွန်းနိုင်အောင်မှ ဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... ပတ်ဝန်းကျင်ထိန်းသိမ်းရေးနှင့် သစ်တောဝန်ကြီးဌာန ညွှန်ကြားရေးမှူး၊ ဦးလှမောင်သိန်မှ ဆွေးနွေးခြင်း ... ပို့ဆောင်ရေးဝန်ကြီးဌာန၊ ညွှန်ကြားရေးမှူး ဦးကိုကိုမှ ဆွေးနွေးခြင်း ... ပတ်ဝန်းကျင်ထိမ်းသိမ်းရေးနှင့် သစ်တောရေးရာ ဝန်ကြီးဌာန၊ ပြည်ထောင်စု ဝန်ကြီးမှ အကြံပြုဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... ပိုဆောင်ရေးဝန်ကြီးဌာန၊ ပြည်ထောင်စုဝန်ကြီး မှ အကြံပြု ဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... သတ္တုတွင်းဝန်ကြီးဌာန၊ ပြည်ထောင်စုဝန်ကြီးမှ အကြံပြုဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... လယ်ယာစိုက်ပျိုးရေးနှင့် ဆည်မြောင်းဝန်ကြီးဌာန ပြည်ထောင်စု ဒုတိယဝန်ကြီးမှ အကြံပြုဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... အမှတ်(၂) လျှပ်စစ် စွမ်းအားဝန်ကြီးဌာန၊ ပြည်ထောင်စု ဒုတိယဝန်ကြီးမှ အကြံပြုဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... ပညာရှင်များနှင့် လွှတ်တော်ကိုယ်စားလှယ်များမှ အကြံပြုဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... စာနယ်ဇင်းများမှ မေးမြန်းခြင်းနှင့်ဖြေကြားခြင်း... မြန်မာနိုင်ငံရင်းနှီးမြှပ်နှံမှုကော်မရှင်၊ ဥက္ကဋ္ဌမှ အကြံပြုဆွေးနွေးခြင်း... အမှတ်(၁) လျှပ်စစ်စွမ်းအားဝန်ကြီးဌာန၊ ပြည်ထောင်စုဝန်ကြီး မှ နိဂုံးချုပ်အမှာစကားပြောကြားခြင်း ...
Source/publisher:
Government of the Union of Myanmar: Ministry for Electric Power No (1); အမှတ် (၁) လျှပ်စစ်စွမ်းအားဝန်ကြီးဌာန
Date of publication:
2011-09-17
Date of entry/update:
2011-10-16
Grouping:
Individual Documents
Language:
Burmese (မြန်မာဘာသာ), English
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pdf
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Advising Burma?s generals on how to run the country?s economy is a risky business...
"During a rare economic forum held [in Rangoon?] in cooperation with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in December, U Myint, a retired economics professor at the Rangoon Institute of Economics, unveiled a few economic reform proposals.
Two Rangoon farmers chat in their feld after harvesting rice. About half of Burma?s GDP comes from agriculture. (Photo: AFP)
In a follow-up to this gathering, which was attended by former World Bank chief economist and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, U Myint, who has also served as an economic adviser to ESCAP, held a press briefing at the Myanmar Egress Capacity Development Center in Rangoon on Jan. 9.
In a press statement, U Myint recalled that someone at the earlier conference expressed the view that the only people worth talking to in Burma are the generals, but the generals are poor listeners, so it was a waste of time talking to them because nothing useful will result..."
Htet Aung
Source/publisher:
"The Irrawaddy" Vol. 18, No. 2
Date of publication:
2010-02-00
Date of entry/update:
2010-02-28
Grouping:
Individual Documents
Language:
English
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Description:
Revised and updated version of a paper presented to the Myanmar/
Burma Studies Conference, Singapore, 13–15 July 2006.....
Contents:
Introduction...
GDP Growth Rate...
Structure of GDP...
Per Capita GDP and the Question of Catching-Up...
Pattern of Household Consumption Expenditure...
Export Commodities...
Inflation...
The Exchange Rate...
Rethinking Policy and Implications for Regional Integration...
Concluding Remarks...
Appendix...
About the Author.....Introduction1
Building a modern developed nation
A stated objective of Myanmar is to become a modern developed nation that
will stand shoulder to shoulder – proud, dignified and tall – with the countries
of the world. How far has Myanmar come in achieving this goal, viewed
from an economic perspective?2 Where does it stand at present in relation to
other nations, and especially those in the Asian region?
This paper attempts to provide some thoughts along these lines by looking
at Myanmar?s official data on:
• Rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP)
• GDP growth in relation to gross domestic investment (GDI)
• Structure of GDP
• Level of per capita GDP
• Pattern of household consumption expenditure
• Commodity composition of exports
• Inflation rate
• Exchange rate
U Myint
Source/publisher:
Institute for Security and Development Policy (Sweden)
Date of publication:
2009-12-00
Date of entry/update:
2010-02-19
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Individual Documents
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English
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"According to official figures, Myanmar has achieved double-digit gross domestic
product (GDP) growth rates every year for the six years from 2000 to 2005. These
figures have proved controversial. A related and another contentious issue
regarding Myanmar?s economic performance in the same period is that high real
GDP growth rates have been achieved with comparatively low gross domestic
investment (GDI) to GDP ratios.
In order to gain a proper perspective on these issues, one approach is to use
cross-sectional data for a particular period to obtain a comparative view of
Myanmar?s performance vis-a-vis the performance of its neighbours in the same
period. The comparative approach has been adopted frequently and has been
useful in analysing developments in Myanmar?s economic and social situation
through the years.
Myanmar has, however, a rich tradition of data collection and analysis. National
accounts data, for example, go as far back as 1948, when the country gained
independence, and even beyond. In addition to cross-sectional analysis, therefore,
the available time-series data could be used to review Myanmar?s recent economic
performance, as reflected in official data of the country?s past experience. Such
a brief review is attempted in this chapter with specific attention devoted to
real GDP growth and GDI..."
U Myint
Source/publisher:
2007 Myanmar/Burma Update Conference via Australian National University
Date of publication:
2008-01-00
Date of entry/update:
2008-12-30
Grouping:
Individual Documents
Language:
English
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Executive Summary:
The State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) military junta claimed a 12.2 % growth in the
Burmese economy in 2006 but international sources say differently; they forecast a slim growth of
2 to 3 % rise. Production and exploration in the oil and gas sector is active, but the rest of
economy remains weak. Agriculture suffers from poor productivity, with output below
potential. Manufacturing is constrained by inadequate quantity and quality of inputs, due to
problems of imports and power shortages. Weak Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth reflects poor
prospects for consumption and investment.
In October 2005, the SPDC increased eight folds the state-subsidized petrol prices. This prompted
higher prices for basic commodities. Inflation returned to double digit rates. Monetary policy has
not addressed the inflationary pressures. Interest rates remain unchanged since 2001,
despite high inflation. But the SPDC increased the interest rates by two per cent points to 12 per
cent on 16 April 2006. Real rates are likely to be negative. Prices for important commodities soared
in the wake of junta?s decision to raise public-sector salaries in April 2006. Rice and fuel prices
remain high. Official data do not reveal the full extent of inflation reaching 14.3 % in December
2005 and 11 % in early 2006. Based on the official data series, the Economist Intelligent Unit (EIU)
estimates the annual inflation to average over 21 % in 2006.The true rate of inflation could be 50 %.
Strong growth in both narrow money supply (M1) and quasi-money (comprising time, savings
and foreign exchange deposits) contributed to a 26.8 % year-on-year expansion in broad money
supply (M2) at the end of May 2006. The junta demands credit from the Central Bank, which it uses
to fund its budget deficit. Total outstanding credit of the junta was 2.5 trillion kyat (nearly
US$440 billion at the official exchange rate, or US$1.9 billion at the free-market exchange rate) by
May 2006, an increase of 28 %.
The state budget remained unbalanced with substantial deficits during much of the 1990s.
Fiscal deficits are financed automatically by credit from the Central Bank, a source of domestic
inflation and instability in the economy. The Junta?s state expenditures are disproportionately
allocated on items that deny sustainable development of the people or the nation. Defense,
ceremonies and rituals, festivals, inspection tours, meetings and seminars, building physical
infrastructure-roads, railways, bridges, dams, monuments, museums, shiny office complexes and
fancy airports, represent wasteful consumption or constitute expensive capital outlays, undertaken
without proper feasibility studies and environmental impact assessments, and unclear, uncertain
and dubious returns on investment. Chronic state budget deficits contribute to rapid monetary
growth and everspiraling inflation.
In order to recover the budget deficit, the junta-increased taxes and collected money and
forced people to labor for developmental projects such as construction of roads, dams, and
bridges. The junta continues to control, command, and centralize Burma?s people and the
economy. Exchange rate distortions favor a few at the expense of many. Fiscal deficit comes at the
expense of social spending which has been reduced far below necessary levels. At the same time,
financing the fiscal deficit through central bank credit is one underlying factor of persistent high
inflation.
The nation?s tax revenue remains buoyant, rising by 28.1 % year on year in nominal terms in
the first 11 months of fiscal year 2005/06 (April-March). Total tax revenue reached 292 billion
kyat during this period (around US$50 billion at the inflated official exchange rate, or US$225
million at free-market exchange rate). Although revenue is still rising, growth has slowed since
2004/05, when revenue expanded by 77 % year on year for the whole fiscal year. This in part
reflects a correction after an increase in average import tariffs, imposed in mid-2004, brought a
424 % year-on-year surge in customs tax fell by 15.1 per cent year on year to 16.2 billion kyat. A
clamp-down on corruption among customs officials in recent months may be part of an effort to
boost revenue from customs tax. Other sources of tax revenue expanded in the first 11 months of
2005/06. Profit tax jumped by 49 per cent year on year, slightly ahead of commodities and services
tax (which rose by 47 per cent) and income tax (11 per cent)1.
2
Total public-sector deficit reached 6 % of GDP for 2004/05. Heavy losses by the state-owned
enterprises (SOE) typically accounted for over 60 % of the overall deficit. The SPDC?s fiscal position
is also weighted down by high off-budget spending on the country?s huge armed forces. The budget
position is unlikely to have improved in 2005/06 and 2006/07 (the current fiscal year), owing to the
junta?s expansionary fiscal policy. The junta?s decision to relocate many government offices to a
huge new administrative complex at Naypyidaw, 320 km north of Rangoon, imposed heavy costs. In
addition, in April 2006 the junta raised salaries for around 1 million civil servants and military
officers by between 500 and 1,200 per cent.
The black market is estimated to be as big if not bigger than the official economy. Published
statistics on foreign trade are greatly understated because of the size of the black market and
unofficial border trade. Burma?s trade with Thailand, China, and India is rising. Though the Burmese
government has good economic relations with its neighbors, better investment and business
climates and an improved political situation are needed to promote foreign investment, exports,
and tourism.
No new foreign direct investment projects have been approved in recent months. Foreign Direct
Investment (FDI) approvals totaled a meager US$35.7 million for the first 11 months of 2005/06,
down from US$158.3 million for the whole of 2004/05. It is possible that the data do not capture
some small FDI flows, such as those by Thai and Chinese firms in small projects along the border
with Burma. International tourist arrivals totaled 320,275 in 2005, up by 5 % year on year, according
to data from the Central Statistical Organization (CSO). Although arrivals rose, the pace of growth
slowed compared with 2004 (rose 11.6 per cent). The slowdown reflected a 5.6 % year on year drop
in arrivals by air, to 145,959, around 46 % total arrivals.
Total international reserves reached US$951 million at the end of June 2006, according to data
from the IMF. Reserves increased sharply in the first quarter of the year, surpassing US$900 million
for the first time, before rising further in the second quarter. The main reason for the improvement
in the overall balance-of-payments position and international reserves has been the rise in exports,
which have been driven by strong growth in exports of natural gas.
The official kyat exchange rate remains artificially inflated. The exchange rate like the rest of the
junta system does not reflect the reality of the monetary system. The free-market exchange rate of
kyat to US$ was 1,350:US$1 in July-October 2006, having recovered from kyat 1,450:US$1 at the
end of April, which also put pressure on prices. There has been a mild appreciation of the kyat
since then. The ratio of the parallel rate to the official rate is nearly 200:1. The kyat came under
pressure earlier this year owing to fears that a pay rise for civil servants would sharply push up
prices. However, strong gas exports have boosted international reserves, thereby helping the kyat
to stabilize. The little-used official exchange rate is fixed against the International Monetary Fund?s
(IMF) special drawing rights (SDR) unit. The official rate held steady at around kyat 5.9:US$1 by
August 2006.
Sein Htay
Source/publisher:
Burma Fund (NCGUB)
Date of publication:
2007-06-00
Date of entry/update:
2007-06-06
Grouping:
Individual Documents
Category:
Economy: general, analytical, statistical (various sources), NCGUB website, reports and other publications, Studies on the Burmese economy by individual Burmese economists
Language:
English
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1.55 MB
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"...Together with the excessive crimes against human rights taking place in
Burma, the economic underdevelopment is a matter of concern to political leaders
and professional economists everywhere. It is, of course, of particular concern
to the Burmese people themselves, both those who live in the country, and those
who have travelled to other parts of the world. Therefore, it is a matter of great
importance to analyse the main factors which have stood in the way of Burma?s
participation in the world-wide surge of economic growth in the past half a century,
and even more importantly, to devise ways in which the country can overcome
these obstacles and achieve a higher rate of economic development.
It is towards this objective that the present report makes an important contribution.
It is in fact a study undertaken by Burmese scholars themselves. Hence
they have brought to this study their own rich and personal knowledge of the
problems of the country and the possibilities that lie ahead. Additionally, most of
the scholars who have undertaken the present study have in fact travelled widely
and achieved high professional recognition as development specialists in the
leading universities of the world. They are thus able to combine their intimate
knowledge of the country with the latest advances in economic science in order
to give us some deep insights about the best ways to advance the future development
of Burma.
What follows is not a plan for economic development as it is commonly
understood. In that sense, a plan consists of definite targets to be achieved,
schedules for the implementation of various programmes, the mobilisation of
adequate resources for the purpose, and schemes for the appraisal and control of
the results. But planning in this sense is not something which can be efficiently
undertaken by a small group of scholars who are not in active collaboration with
those responsible for the implementation of plans. This is particularly the case with
those scholars who have been away from the country in recent years.
However, what such a group of Burmese scholars can do, and have done in
this study, is to think through the problems of developing the country in the long
run, taking into account Burma?s own historical experience, the changes which
are taking place in the outside world, and to investigate the likely scenarios or
trends for the future, and thus come up with a vision of what to aim for and an
approach and sense of direction for the long term development of Burma. This
will give political leaders, both those inside the country who are responsible for
designing and carrying out its policies, and those in donor countries abroad who
can assist this effort by the scale of their financial and technical assistance. Such
strategic studies have been undertaken in countries as far apart as the United States
on the one hand, and Chile on the other. Nearer home, such studies have been
used by the governments of Singapore and Malaysia as the basis of their more
specific policies. It is in this sense that the present study will serve as a useful
basis for further thought and discussion by all concerned with the future welfare
of the people of Burma. A welfare that can take place nor survive without political
changes in the country..."...Overview and Policy Framework;
Agriculture;
Industry;
Natural Resources and Environment;
International Trade and Investment;
The Monetary and Fiscal Framework for
Macroeconomic Stability;
Poverty and Income Distribution;
Education;
Infrastructure;
Institutions;
Priorities and Problems of Implementation;
Conclusion
Khin Maung Kyi, Ronald Findlay, R.M. Sundrum, Mya Maung, Myo Nyunt, Zaw Oo, et al.
Source/publisher:
The Olof Palme International Center
Date of publication:
2000-00-00
Date of entry/update:
2005-04-17
Grouping:
Individual Documents
Language:
English
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pdf pdf
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"Myanmar?s economic reforms are constrained by the domestic political situation...
This paper explores Myanmar?s political and economic background in the context of stalled reforms. It finds that Myanmar?s economic development is constrained by the domestic political situation, which has in turn been linked to sanctions on trade, investment and aid imposed by Western Europe and the United States.
The paper states that further reforms are still required, as the previous round of reforms failed to redress problems such as:
* High inflation
* Persistent fiscal deficit
* Widening trade deficit
* Chronic foreign exchange shortage
* A drastic fall in foreign investment
* Inefficient state economic enterprises (SEEs)
* Low value-added production...
The paper notes:
* The current military government is endeavouring to institute a new political order, while at the same time attempting a smooth transition from a closed to an open market economy.
* The fundamental premise is that these broad political and economic reforms should not compromise the three principal main national causes including national sovereignty...
The paper concludes:
* Conflict between the NLD and the government and the resulting political impasse is the main obstacle for further reforms.
* The realization of Myanmars reforms will depend on whether the government and the opposition can be reconciled..."
Tin Maung Maung Than
Source/publisher:
Institute for South-East Asian Studies (ISEAS) via Eldis
Date of publication:
2000-09-00
Date of entry/update:
2003-06-03
Grouping:
Individual Documents
Category:
Economy: general, analytical, statistical (various sources), Studies on the Burmese economy by individual Burmese economists
Language:
English
Format :
pdf
Size:
79.87 KB
Local URL:
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