Description:
"The violent crushing of protests led by Buddhist monks in
Burma/Myanmar in late 2007 has caused even allies of the
military government to recognise that change is desperately
needed. China and the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations (ASEAN) have thrown their support behind the
efforts by the UN Secretary-General's special envoy
to re-open talks on national reconciliation, while the U.S.
and others have stepped up their sanctions. But neither
incomplete punitive measures nor intermittent talks
are likely to bring about major reforms. Myanmar's
neighbours and the West must press together for a
sustainable process of national reconciliation. This will
require a long-term effort by all who can make a difference,
combining robust diplomacy with serious efforts to address
the deep-seated structural obstacles to peace, democracy
and development.
The protests in August-September and, in particular, the
government crackdown have shaken up the political status
quo, the international community has been mobilised
to an unprecedented extent, and there are indications that
divergences of view have grown within the military. The
death toll is uncertain but appears to have been substantially
higher than the official figures, and the violence has
profoundly disrupted religious life across the country.
While extreme violence has been a daily occurrence
in ethnic minority populated areas in the border regions,
where governments have faced widespread armed rebellion
for more than half a century, the recent events struck at the
core of the state and have had serious reverberations within
the Burman majority society, as well as the regime itself,
which it will be difficult for the military leaders to ignore.
While these developments present important new
opportunities for change, they must be viewed against
the continuance of profound structural obstacles. The
balance of power is still heavily weighted in favour of
the army, whose top leaders continue to insist that only
a strongly centralised, military-led state can hold the
country together. There may be more hope that a new
generation of military leaders can disown the failures
of the past and seek new ways forward. But even if the
political will for reform improves, Myanmar will still
face immense challenges in overcoming the debilitating
legacy of decades of conflict, poverty and institutional
failure, which fuelled the recent crisis and could well
overwhelm future governments as well.
The immediate challenges are to create a more durable
negotiating process between government, opposition
and ethnic groups and help alleviate the economic and
humanitarian crisis that hampers reconciliation at all levels
of society. At the same time, longer-term efforts are
needed to encourage and support the emergence of a
broader, more inclusive and better organised political
society and to build the capacity of the state, civil society
and individual households alike to deal with the many
development challenges. To achieve these aims, all actors
who have the ability to influence the situation need to
become actively involved in working for change, and the
comparative advantages each has must be mobilised to
the fullest, with due respect for differences in national
perspectives and interests..."
Source/publisher:
International Crisis Group (Asia Report N°144)
Date of Publication:
2008-01-31
Date of entry:
2008-03-15
Grouping:
- Individual Documents
Category:
Language:
English