"The US economy ended 2018 with a whimper and a 1.1 per cent annual rate of gross domestic product growth, and then started the first quarter of 2019 with a bang – 3.1 per cent growth. The economy has since settled back to 2 per cent or less, where it seems likely to linger unless major shocks occur. The world economy is slowing, too, but fears of an escalation in China-US trade tensions or a very disorderly Brexit have eased. Three cuts in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, along with large liquidity injections to prevent disorderly short-term money markets, have helped keep the economy turning over, if not humming. Consumers keep spending, but business investment is sluggish. Monetary authorities have eased about as much as they can. Short and long interest rates in the United States are now zero in real terms – adjusted to remove the effects of inflation and reflect real borrowing costs and yield – and negative in nominal terms in much of Europe and Japan. A major question mark is China. It has not resorted to extremely expansionary credit growth or very large government deficits. Its economy is officially growing at about 6 per cent a year, but many outside experts suggest that the actual growth rate is 2 to 3 percentage points lower than that..."