Description:
OVERVIEW:
"Myanmar will shortly hold its first elections in twenty
years. Given the restrictive provisions of the 2010 Political
Parties Registration Law that bar anyone serving a
prison term from membership in a political party, many
imprisoned dissidents will be excluded from the process,
unless they are released in the near future. Aung San Suu
Kyi ? whose suspended sentence and house arrest possibly
exclude her also ? has condemned the legislation, and
her National League for Democracy (NLD) has decided
not to participate and has, therefore, lost its status as a
legally-registered party. There has rightly been much
international criticism of the new constitution and of the
fact that the elections will not be inclusive, but the political
and generational shift that they will bring about may
represent the best opportunity in a generation to influence
the future direction of the country.
The balloting will take place in the framework of the new
constitution, adopted under highly questionable circumstances
in 2008. That document, which will come into
force following the elections, will entrench the military?s
power. It gives the institution significant autonomy, as
well as considerable political influence, by reserving a
quarter of the seats in national and regional legislatures
for it and creating a powerful new national defence and
security council controlled by the commander-in-chief,
who also receives control of key security ministries and
other extraordinary powers.
It seems very likely that the vote will go ahead without
any moves by the regime to address concerns. At the
same time, the problematic nature of the process should
not lead observers to underestimate its significance. The
elections and the constitution they will bring into force
will define the political landscape for years to come and
will influence what opportunities there are to push for
long-overdue social, economic and political reforms in
Myanmar. An understanding of the political dynamics
they will create is, therefore, vital.
It is clear that the top leaders, Generals Than Shwe and
Maung Aye, will step aside after the elections, making way
for a younger generation of military officers. Although
the old guard may continue to wield significant influence
behind the scenes, the reins of power will be in new hands,
and the new political structures make it unlikely that any
single individual will be able to dominate decision-making
in the way that Than Shwe has in recent years. Myanmar
has been under military rule for half a century. The attempts
by the regime to introduce a more civilian and plural
character to governance, however tentative and flawed
they may be, should be critiqued but not dismissed.
These were the messages of Crisis Group?s August 2009
report, Myanmar: Towards the Elections, and they continue
to be valid. This briefing updates recent developments,
including an analysis of the electoral legislation
issued in March. It provides a timeline for the implementation
of the new constitutional structures after election
day, including the formation and initial functioning of the
new legislatures. It also examines the critical question of
the impact on the ethnic conflict and concludes that renewed
fighting in areas where ceasefires currently hold
should be of concern but remains on balance unlikely. A
brief assessment of the recent mass sell-off of public
assets, which was driven in part by the uncertainty of
post-election rent-seeking opportunities, suggests that this
could have greater impact on the political economy than
the elections themselves, by providing significant off-budget
resources that will help the army take advantage of the
considerable autonomy and political influence written
into the constitution for it.
The electoral legislation is in most respects almost identical
to the laws governing the 1990 poll, including provisions
that led to a broadly fair count. The most significant
departures are highly restrictive provisions in the Political
Parties Registration Law. This suggests strongly that,
as in 1990, the elections will be characterised by a campaigning
period that is highly controlled and far from
free, but that the voting on election day may well be relatively
fair. Such a scenario presents important challenges,
as well as opportunities, to domestic stakeholders and to
the international community."
Source/publisher:
International Crisis Group (Asia Briefing N°105)
Date of Publication:
2010-05-27
Date of entry:
2010-05-27
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English
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