1 FOREWORD BY ARCHBISHOP DESMOND TUTU; INTRODUCTION:- 3 FLAWED IMPLEMENTATION; 3 MOVING AHEAD; 4 RESISTANCE; 4 BROKEN PROMISES; 5 NO DELAY; 6 SMART SANCTIONS... PART 2: THE STORY SO FAR:- 7 CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS; 9 ROADMAPS LEADING NOWHERE: * Thai �road map' _ Much Ado About Nothing; * The SPDC Roadmap_ the Perfect Stalling Tactic; * National Convention background; * What's missing from the �road map'; * What the convention does offer; * NLD & ethnic nationality participation not required; 12 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; 14 BROADER INDIRECT IMPACT OF SANCTIONS; 17 LIMITATIONS OF SANCTIONS: * �Carroty Sticks'; 18 SANCTIONS & THE ECONOMY... PART 3: CURRENT SANCTIONS:- 21 CANADA'S SANCTIONS ON BURMA; 22 EUROPEAN UNION SANCTIONS ON BURMA; 23 JAPAN'S POLICY ON BURMA; 24 UNITED STATES SANCTIONS ON BURMA; 25 SANCTIONS & ACTIONS: AN ASSESSMENT; 25 IMPORT BAN: * Direct Impacts; * Room For Improvement; 26 BAN ON REMITTANCES TO BURMA: * Direct Impacts; * Room For Improvement; 28 FOREIGN INVESTMENT RESTRICTIONS: * Direct Impacts; * Room For Improvement; 30 ARMS EMBARGO / NON-PROVISION OF ARTICLES/SERVICES THAT COULD BE USED FOR REPRESSION * Direct Impacts: * Room For Improvement; 33 ASSETS FREEZE: * Direct Impacts & Room For Improvement; 34 TRAVEL/VISA BAN: * Direct Impacts; * Room For Improvement; 35 BAN ON DIRECT FOREIGN ASSISTANCE: * Direct Impacts & Room For Improvement; * Japan Suspends Aid to Burma; * Drug Eradication Assistance; * Direct Impacts & Room For Improvement; 37 SUSPENSION OF MDB & IFI ASSISTANCE: * Direct Impacts & Room For Improvement; 38 TRADE PREFERENCE SUSPENSIONS: * Direct Impacts; * Room For Improvement; 40 DIPLOMATIC DOWNGRADES; 40 INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANIZATION (ILO): * A Model For Sanctions; 43 UNITED NATIONS: * SPDC Thumbing Their Nose At The UN; * UN Interventions; * Extreme Violations; * Broad Based Support; 46 WHAT ABOUT THE UNSC? 47 UN SECRETARY GENERAL'S SPECIAL ENVOY TO BURMA: * Turning of the Tide; * A New Strategy; * UN Special Envoy's Mandate; 49 THE UN SPECIAL RAPPORTEUR'S OBLIGATION: * A Different Tune; 50 UNDERMINING ITSELF; PART 4: RECOMMENDED ACTIONS & SANCTIONS:- 51 �RECIPE FOR RECONCILIATION'; 51 PRINCIPLED ENGAGEMENT: * Nominations for the Burma Diplomatic Squad; * Components of the Recipe; * Reconstruction of Burma; 54 NO MORE TOYS FOR THE BAD BOYS; 54 WIDEN BAN ON REMITTANCES TO BURMA; 55 IMPORT BAN ON GOODS FROM BURMA: * 10% of Exports Profits Directly Fund the Regime; 58 BAN ON CONFLICT RESOURCES: * SPDC Involvement; * Examples of SPDC �unofficial' involvement in logging; * Local Communities � Logging often hurts more than it helps; * Gems; * Environmental Destruction; * Employment; * Forced Labor; * Ethnic Nationalities � Between A Rock & A Hard Place; * Drugs, HIV/AIDS & Money Laundering; * Resource Diplomacy; * Who's Operating? * Some of the Big Boys... 70 BAN ON NATURAL GAS IMPORTS FROM BURMA; 71 RESTRICTION ON FUEL SALES TO BURMA; 72 BAN ON OIL & GAS FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI): * Oil & Gas; * New Pipeline Proposal; * Yadana Partners Strike Again; * Greater Mekong Subregion Project; 74 FULL INVESTMENT BAN: * Major FDI Players; * FDI 2001-2002; * Trade Fairs; * FDI Exposure to Money Laundering; * What About the Workers? 79 SPECIAL FOCUS: TENTACLES 'S HOLD ON THE FORMAL ECONOMY: * The BIG Tentacles � A Snapshot! * Ministry of Defense; * DDP: Directorate of Defense Procurement; * DDI: Directorate of Defense Industries; * MEC: Myanmar Economic Corporation; * UMEH (UMEHL): Union of Myanmar Economic Holdings; * MOGE/MPE/MPPE; * Ministry of Industry I; * Ministry of Industry II; * Myanmar Agricultural Produce Trading (MAPT); * Myanmar Timber Enterprise (MTE); * Myanmar Export-Import Services (MEIS); * Ministry of Post and Telegraphs (MPT); * Ministry of Hotels & Tourism; * Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE); * Directorate of Ordnance; * State-Owned/Controlled Banks; 86 A CLOSER LOOK: UNION OF MYANMAR ECONOMIC HOLDINGS LTD (UMEH/UMEHL/UMEHI): * Gems; * Jade; * UMEH Business Ventures; * Keeping It In The Family: Industrial Estates; * It Gets Worse; * Six Degrees Of Separation; * Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA); * Na Sa Ka: Making Human Rights Violations Profitable... 95 WIDEN THE ASSETS FREEZE; 95 IMPLEMENT FINANCIAL ACTION TASK FORCE (FATF) RECOMMENDATIONS; 98 WITHHOLD ASSISTANCE FROM IFI/MDBS: * Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS); * East-West Economic Corridor (EWEC); * Power Trade Operating Agreement (PTOA); * Technical Assistance; * Withhold GMS Funding For Projects In Burma... 102 SUSPEND JAPAN'S OFFICIAL DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE (ODA) TO BURMA: * Options; 105 PRESSURE ON JAPAN; 105 BOYCOTT AND DIVESTMENT CAMPAIGNS; 108 DELAY TOURISM: * Benefiting Whom? 109 ASEAN TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY: * The Reality; * Credibility on the Line; 111 INCREASE PRESSURE ON THE REGIME'S KEY PARTNERS; 112 SPORTS EMBARGO; 113 OFFICIAL RECOGNITION FOR THE CRPP; 113 INCREASE CAPACITY OF THE DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT; 114 PUT SPDC ON PROBATION; 114 TAKE BURMA TO THE UNITED NATIONS SECURITY COUNCIL (UNSC): * Rampant Military Growth; * Known weapons procurement during 2001-July 2003; * Civilian Military Porters; * Child Soldiers; * Drugs; * Civil War; * Displacement of People; * Systematic human rights abuses; * Failure to recognize democratic elections; * Regional Implications... PART 5: MYTHS & REALITIES:- 132 MYTH 1: Sanctions on Burma have not worked.; 133 MYTH 2: The effectiveness of sanctions is too limited to beconstructive; 134 MYTH 3: The SPDC is not influenced by international pressure; 135 MYTH 4: Sanctions can be used as a scapegoat by the SPDC for internal policy failures; 136 MYTH 5: Sanctions will alienate the �moderates' in the regime; 137 MYTH 6: Sanctions take away incentives for the regime to make progress; 138 MYTH 7: Constructive engagement would be successful in bringing reforms in Burma; 139 MYTH 8: Sanctions and principled engagement cannot work as complementary approaches; 141 MYTH 9: Western nations' economic stake in Burma is not large enough for sanctions to be effective; 142 MYTH 10: Sanctions will not impact the regime but will mostly hurt civilians: * Formal and Informal Economy; * Reality Check; * Jobs Lost? 146 MYTH 11: Sanctions are starving the population: * Very Low Nutrition and Life Expectancy Rates; * More Displacement in Ethnic and Central Areas; * Logging and Increased Poverty; * Military Forces and Arms Procurement Have Increased; * More Oppression; * Four-Cuts Program; * Mawchi Township: Impoverished by the SPDC; 151 MYTH 12: Investment and trade has brought better working conditions; 153 MYTH 13: Sanctions destroyed Burma's investment climate: * Mandalay Brewery: A Cautionary Tale; 156 MYTH 14: Sanctions created Burma's current financial crisis; * Foreign Exchange Certificates (FECs); 158 MYTH 15: Burmese people do not want sanctions; 159 MYTH 16: International pressure & sanctions will isolate the regime, push it closer to China; PART 6: IRREVERSIBLE STEPS FORWARD:- 162 LESSONS FROM AFGHANISTAN: * A Few Steps Behind; * Engagement & Reward � A Dangerous Game; * Transformation; 164 SANCTIONS FOR CHANGE: * Clear Recipe; * Period of Leverage & Enforcement Actions; * Timing & Strength; * Committee oversight; * Communication; * Moderates?; * Lose-Lose Situation; * Premature Action; 172 EU'S NEW STRATEGY APRIL 2003 � WHY IT DIDN'T MEASURE UP; 174 LESSONS FROM HAITI, NIGERIA, AND SOUTH AFRICA: * Haiti; * Nigeria; * South Africa; 179 RECIPE FOR SUCCESS: * A Non-Zero Sum View of the Conflict; * Sticks as Well as Carrots; * Asymmetry of Motivation Favoring the State Employing Coercive Diplomacy; * Opponent's Fear of Unacceptable Punishment for Noncompliance; * No Significant Misperception