Prospects for Peace in Myanmar: Opportunities and Threats

Description: 

ABSTRACT: "This paper examines the peace process in Myanmar from the perspectives of the Myanmar government and Army, and non-state armed groups, as well as ethnic nationality political and civil society actors and conflict affected communities. It argues that this is the best opportunity to resolve ethnic conflicts in the country since the military coup of 1962. However, the peace process will not ultimately succeed unless the government demonstrates a commitment to engage on the political issues which have long structured armed conflicts in Myanmar, and can also bring fighting to an end in Kachin and Shan States. On the political front, important progress was made in October-November 2012 in the relationship between government peace envoys and non-state armed groups. The government seems committed to political talks, although it is not yet clear how and when these will begin in earnest. In some ways, it will be easier for the government to initiate political talks with opposition groups, than to ensure that the Myanmar Army follows the peace agenda. Recent negotiations with the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) have made little progress, resulting in a worrying continuation of armed conflict in northern Myanmar. This paper sketches different - sometimes contested - positions regarding the peace process in Myanmar, on the part of different ethnic actors, and analyses their strategies. It goes on to describe and discuss some of the winners and losers in the peace process. The paper argues that, in order to build a sustainable and deep-rooted peace process, it is necessary to involve conflict-affected communities and civil society organisations and above-ground ethnic political parties; it is also necessary to re-imagine peace and conflict in Myanmar as issues affecting the whole of society, including the Burman majority. The paper concludes by sketching a ?framework agreement?, by which the government and representatives of minority communities could move onto a substantial political discourse.".....CONTENTS: 1. Abstract; 2. Introduction; 3. Key Challenges; 4. Background; 5. 2012: Prospects for Peace; 6. The Myanmar Government and Army; 7. Ethnic Actors; 8. Potential Spoilers; 9. Supporting the Peace Process, Doing No Harm; 10. Ways Forward; 11. References; 12. List of Non State Armed Groups (NSAGs)

Creator/author: 

Ashley South

Source/publisher: 

Peace Reserch Institute, Oslo (PRIO)

Date of Publication: 

2012-12-12

Date of entry: 

2012-12-12

Grouping: 

  • Individual Documents

Category: 

Language: 

English

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Format: 

pdf

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706.19 KB