Myanmar’s Myitsone Dam Project Still a Deadlock

Description: 

"China’s policy towards the Myitsone dam issue has experienced several major changes since Myanmar suspended the controversial project in September 2011. At first, Beijing overtly asked the Myanmar government to promote the implementation of big projects in Myanmar and the Myitsone dam was included. Yet, Beijing adopted a pragmatic attitude towards the Myitsone issue after Myanmar’s National League for Democracy (NLD) took office in April 2016, in which it pursued for Myanmar’s compensation for reneging on the terms of the contract rather than simply resuming the project. The main reasons for China’s softened position on the Myitsone issue are the following: first, Yunnan, the main buyer of the electricity from Myitsone dam, now has an oversupply of electricity and needs to export its growing electricity holding to ease the excess hydropower capacity. Second, China fully realizes that there would be strong national resistance against the Myanmar government’s decision to revive the Myitsone project. Third, China is anxious about Myanmar’s swing to the US due to their disputes over the Myitsone issue. Fourth, China wants to implement other projects at the expense of cooling down the Myitsone dam. Fifth, China is waiting for an opportunity to resolve the Myitsone issue. Yet, China seems to has renewed hope that the Myitsone dam would be restarted as the bilateral ties with Myanmar has been on the upswing since the Rohingya refugee crisis in the mid-2017. During a visit to Kachin in December 2018, China’s ambassador to Myanmar Hong Liang said the Myitsone dam was crucial for both Beijing and Naypyidaw, and that any further delays could hamper bilateral relations. Then, in January 2019, a statement published by the Chinese Embassy in Yangon said “If this issue fails to be resolved... it will seriously hurt the confidence of Chinese entrepreneurs to invest in Myanmar... the two sides should find an acceptable solution as soon as possible”. It also claimed that Kachin political leaders and social organizations have a “positive attitude” toward the dam, leading to a widespread speculation that China wants to revive the controversial project. Why China is so keen to revive the Myitsone dam now? Four reasons could explain China’s significant change in the Myitsone issue. First and foremost, China tries to move forward the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) by resuming the Myitsone project. As Joe Kumbun, who is a local analyst based in Kachin, said China attempts to provide full electricity to the Economic Cooperation Zone along the Myanmar-China border and the industrial zones in northern Kachin, the key elements of CMEC and BRI, through restarting the Myitsone dam. Second, China tries to revive the Myitsone dam and push forward with others projects by using it as support for Myanmar in the face of mounting international pressures over the Rohingya crisis. Third, China is getting upset because the Myanmar government has hung up the Myitsone dam for seven years and dragged its heels on the resolution to the Myitsone issue. Fourth, China is increasingly concerned about the serious consequences of the Myitsone project in the general election in Myanmar in 2020. In other words, the Myitsone dam might be a focus in the coming elections and be manipulated by the West to undermine the warm relations between China and Myanmar. Given the factors discussed above, China wants to address the Myitsone issue as soon as possible, thus removing the main barrier in their bilateral ties and promoting the economic cooperation between the two countries..."

Creator/author: 

Nian Peng

Source/publisher: 

"Burma Rivers Network" (Myanmar)

Date of Publication: 

2019-04-01

Date of entry: 

2019-09-26

Grouping: 

  • Individual Documents

Category: 

Countries: 

Myanmar, China

Administrative areas of Burma/Myanmar: 

Kachin State

Language: 

English

Resource Type: 

text

Text quality: 

    • Good