Description:
"In the wake of the 2016 and 2017 ?area clearance
operations” against the Rohingya minority in Myanmar?s
Rakhine State, this report explores the structure, training,
and ethos of the Myanmar armed forces to clarify the
implications and challenges of, as well as the prospects
for, a solution and an accounting for past events. Drawing
on an in-depth review of the literature, extensive field
experience, and interviews, the report is produced by the
Asia Center at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP)
as part of its effort to inform policy and strategies on
managing violent conflict....
Conclusion:
Myanmar has always posed very difficult challenges for the international community. For
decades, successive governments in Rangoon and Naypyidaw have strongly resisted external
pressures. Between 1988 and 2011, for example, public criticism, economic sanctions, and other
punitive measures failed to change the core beliefs and key policies of the country?s military
rulers. Indeed, such measures seemed only to antagonize the generals, encourage a bunker
38 USIP.ORG
PEACEWORKS 140
mentality, and make those in power even more resistant to change.318 At times, policies of dialogue
and engagement seemed to hold out greater promise, and some progress was made, but
more often than not Naypyidaw took whatever inducements were on offer and continued to
pursue its own agenda. The controlled democratization process that was launched in 2010, for
example, faithfully follows a seven-step transition plan that was conceived by the Tatmadaw
leadership fifteen years ago.319
Despite the advent of a quasi-democratic administration under Aung San Suu Kyi in 2016,
there are no signs that this pattern will change in the foreseeable future. The pro-military
constitution severely limits Aung San Suu Kyi?s freedom of action in key areas, notably those
relating to Myanmar?s security. She also faces other constraints. However, she has demonstrated
that, like the military officers who preceded her and still exercise influence over her
government, she holds firmly to the nationalist position that Myanmar and Myanmar alone
will decide what is best for the country and its people, according to its perceived interests and
priorities at the time. She clearly does not feel an obligation to conform to her public image
as a human rights icon, or to repay the debt that many in the international community seem
to feel they are owed for her rehabilitation and subsequent elevation to the de facto leadership
of the country.
With regard to the Rohingyas in particular, domestic factors will always be of paramount
concern to Myanmar?s civilian and military leaders, and at present there is no pressure from
within the country to soften their uncompromising approach. Indeed, as the International
Crisis Group has pointed out, there is currently a rare consensus between Aung San Suu Kyi,
her government, the armed forces leadership, and the wider population that the Rohingya
crisis continues to demand a very firm and consistent policy response. Given the Tatmadaw?s
strength, and the government?s weakness, the popular mood can only harden Naypyidaw?s
determination to decide its own agenda and timetable for any changes, regardless of external
pressures. This position may come at a high price but, as so often in the past, it will be paid if
that is seen to be the cost of preserving Myanmar?s stability, sovereignty, and independence.320
The international community can take a number of practical measures now to assist the
refugees in Bangladesh and document the abuses perpetrated against them. It is possible that,
at some stage, the Myanmar authorities may permit the delivery of adequate humanitarian
assistance to those communities still suffering in Rakhine State. Several largely symbolic steps
can also be taken to bring home to the Myanmar government, armed forces, and people the
impact of recent developments on majority world opinion. However, unless there are significant
shifts in attitude inside Myanmar, at all levels, a fair, durable, and long-term solution to the
Rohingya crisis, let alone a formal, legal accounting for the events of the past eighteen months,
will remain a distant prospect.
Source/publisher:
Asia Center at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP)
Date of Publication:
2018-08-00
Date of entry:
2018-11-15
Grouping:
- Individual Documents
Category:
Language:
English
Local URL:
Format:
pdf
Size:
1.45 MB