MYANMAR?S ARMED FORCES AND THE ROHINGYA CRISIS

Description: 

"In the wake of the 2016 and 2017 ?area clearance operations” against the Rohingya minority in Myanmar?s Rakhine State, this report explores the structure, training, and ethos of the Myanmar armed forces to clarify the implications and challenges of, as well as the prospects for, a solution and an accounting for past events. Drawing on an in-depth review of the literature, extensive field experience, and interviews, the report is produced by the Asia Center at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) as part of its effort to inform policy and strategies on managing violent conflict.... Conclusion: Myanmar has always posed very difficult challenges for the international community. For decades, successive governments in Rangoon and Naypyidaw have strongly resisted external pressures. Between 1988 and 2011, for example, public criticism, economic sanctions, and other punitive measures failed to change the core beliefs and key policies of the country?s military rulers. Indeed, such measures seemed only to antagonize the generals, encourage a bunker 38 USIP.ORG PEACEWORKS 140 mentality, and make those in power even more resistant to change.318 At times, policies of dialogue and engagement seemed to hold out greater promise, and some progress was made, but more often than not Naypyidaw took whatever inducements were on offer and continued to pursue its own agenda. The controlled democratization process that was launched in 2010, for example, faithfully follows a seven-step transition plan that was conceived by the Tatmadaw leadership fifteen years ago.319 Despite the advent of a quasi-democratic administration under Aung San Suu Kyi in 2016, there are no signs that this pattern will change in the foreseeable future. The pro-military constitution severely limits Aung San Suu Kyi?s freedom of action in key areas, notably those relating to Myanmar?s security. She also faces other constraints. However, she has demonstrated that, like the military officers who preceded her and still exercise influence over her government, she holds firmly to the nationalist position that Myanmar and Myanmar alone will decide what is best for the country and its people, according to its perceived interests and priorities at the time. She clearly does not feel an obligation to conform to her public image as a human rights icon, or to repay the debt that many in the international community seem to feel they are owed for her rehabilitation and subsequent elevation to the de facto leadership of the country. With regard to the Rohingyas in particular, domestic factors will always be of paramount concern to Myanmar?s civilian and military leaders, and at present there is no pressure from within the country to soften their uncompromising approach. Indeed, as the International Crisis Group has pointed out, there is currently a rare consensus between Aung San Suu Kyi, her government, the armed forces leadership, and the wider population that the Rohingya crisis continues to demand a very firm and consistent policy response. Given the Tatmadaw?s strength, and the government?s weakness, the popular mood can only harden Naypyidaw?s determination to decide its own agenda and timetable for any changes, regardless of external pressures. This position may come at a high price but, as so often in the past, it will be paid if that is seen to be the cost of preserving Myanmar?s stability, sovereignty, and independence.320 The international community can take a number of practical measures now to assist the refugees in Bangladesh and document the abuses perpetrated against them. It is possible that, at some stage, the Myanmar authorities may permit the delivery of adequate humanitarian assistance to those communities still suffering in Rakhine State. Several largely symbolic steps can also be taken to bring home to the Myanmar government, armed forces, and people the impact of recent developments on majority world opinion. However, unless there are significant shifts in attitude inside Myanmar, at all levels, a fair, durable, and long-term solution to the Rohingya crisis, let alone a formal, legal accounting for the events of the past eighteen months, will remain a distant prospect.

Creator/author: 

Andrew Selth

Source/publisher: 

Asia Center at the United States Institute of Peace (USIP)

Date of Publication: 

2018-08-00

Date of entry: 

2018-11-15

Grouping: 

  • Individual Documents

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Language: 

English

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Format: 

pdf

Size: 

1.45 MB

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