Description:
Conclusion: "Along with sweeping political reforms, Myanmar has
embarked on an ambitious program of economic changes,
aimed at rebuilding its moribund economy and integrating
it with the global system. It has begun a managed float
of the currency, and is dismantling the old system of monopolies
and privileged access to licenses, permits and
contracts. These changes will have a big impact on the
entrenched economic elite – crony businessmen, the military
and former political heavyweights linked to the government
party – who will have to compete on a more level
playing field and even start paying tax.
Given their wealth or political influence, these interests
might have been powerful spoilers, but there are no indications
that they are attempting to derail the economic reforms.
They know which way the winds are blowing and
appear to have accepted the inevitability of the changes.
They are aware that the political risks of challenging the
reforms would outweigh the likely benefits and see that
they may be well-positioned to benefit from a vibrant and
growing economy, even if their share of it is reduced. To
this end, the business elite have embarked on efforts to
reposition and rebrand themselves. The military recognises
that its sprawling business interests, if they continue to
be inefficiently run, could become a drain on its budget
rather than a supplement to it.
Yet, the path of economic reconstruction will not be smooth
or straightforward. To achieve President Thein Sein?s objective
of broad-based and equitable growth, well-crafted
and effectively implemented policies are also required.
With so much to be changed, and limited capacity at both
the policy-formulation and policy-implementation levels,
there is a risk that the administration will be overwhelmed.
Beyond this, success in such an endeavour depends on
ensuring macroeconomic and political stability. Unanticipated
economic shocks, social unrest or political uncertainty
in the lead-up to the next elections in 2015 all represent
potential risks to that stability. But if it is able to manage
this complex process, Myanmar has the possibility to finally
realise its enormous economic potential, catching up with
its neighbours while avoiding some of their mistakes."
Source/publisher:
International Crisis Group (Asia Report N?231)
Date of Publication:
2012-07-27
Date of entry:
2012-07-27
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- Individual Documents
Category:
Language:
English
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Format:
pdf
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540.72 KB