Myanmar: Now a Site for Sino–US Geopolitical Competition?

Description: 

CONCLUSION: "As the Obama administration is keen to support Thein Sein?s dual project of political reconciliation and economic reforms, with China?s rise clearly in mind, the geopolitical competition over Myanmar between Washington and Beijing is set to intensify. The present US role in Myanmar?s political and economic reforms will in all likelihood lead in the future to a greatly expanded presence in the country. By comparison, China?s often much exaggerated political hold over Naypyidaw has taken a knock with US-Myanmar rapprochement. Its significant economic presence in Myanmar will continue, however. Significantly, far from pulling back, the Chinese leadership also seems eager to continue to boost the bilateral relationship with Naypyidaw, which will probably prompt more rounds of competition for greater influence between Beijing and Washington concerning Myanmar. By normalising relations with Washington, Naypyidaw will have gone some way to restoring the balance historically favoured in Myanmar?s external relations. To progress with its domestic reform agenda, the Thein Sein government seems committed both to warmer relations with Washington as well as pursuing the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership it agreed with China. However, evidence suggests that the Thein Sein government knows it will need to carefully manage the attention and interest from both Beijing and Washington. Finally, one should not assume that developments in Myanmar over the next three years will necessarily amount to an entirely smooth political transition. So far the NLD has been the major beneficiary in party political terms from the present process of reconciliation long urged by Washington. With the political future of representatives and officials of the previous regime possibly in doubt, there is at least the question over how much internal pressure the President will yet face and be able to resist regarding a possible recalibration of the current political course and concessions in the name of national reconciliation. In turn, the resulting decisions of this process are likely to affect Nypyidaw?s relationship with Washington and Beijing."

Creator/author: 

J?rgen Haacke

Source/publisher: 

London School of Economics (LSE)

Date of Publication: 

2012-11-00

Date of entry: 

2013-05-31

Grouping: 

  • Individual Documents

Category: 

Language: 

English

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