"A trio of ethnic armed groups have escalated their fight with the military in Myanmar’s Shan State. This alliance has long been outside the country’s peace process. With China’s help, the government should pursue bilateral ceasefires – and longer-term rapprochement – with the three organisations. What’s new? On 15 August, an alliance of ethnic armed groups staged coordinated attacks against strategic targets in northern Myanmar. The offensive left up to fifteen people dead, and clashes reportedly continue in the northern part of Shan State, creating concerns for civilians’ safety. Why did it happen? The three ethnic armed groups behind the attacks have been largely excluded from the peace process for the past five years. In recent months, the government has proposed bilateral ceasefires to the groups but has set unrealistic demands and accompanied the offers with military pressure. Why does it matter? The attacks mark a serious escalation in Shan State’s conflict. They represent a rejection of bilateral ceasefire terms that the Myanmar government has proposed to the armed groups. While the Myanmar military has not yet responded with significant force, the brunt of mounting violence will inevitably fall on civilians. Myanmar’s military has not retaliated in the heavy-handed way many observers expected, given the attacks’ provocative nature. Instead, it has focused on securing key infrastructure and reopening the highway to the border with China. Contrary to most expectations, the military has also extended its unilateral ceasefire from 31 August to 21 September. The government negotiating team has moved quickly to resume talks with the groups, with meetings held on 31 August and 17 September. On 9 September, the Brotherhood Alliance announced a one-month ceasefire but also warned that it would retaliate if attacked. China, which wields strong influence in the border areas and over some of the groups, has also been encouraging dialogue and de-escalation. The Myanmar military could still decide to strike back, however. A counteroffensive would have dire consequences for the area’s civilian population, particularly ethnic Ta’ang (also referred to as Palaung), whom government forces suspect of providing support to the TNLA. Myanmar’s military and, to a lesser extent, the three ethnic armed groups have a history of human rights violations. Already, there are reports of indiscriminate shelling and mortar fire, as well as attacks on local aid groups’ vehicles and civilian cars and trucks on the highway. Thousands of residents have fled their homes, some pre-emptively out of fear of being targeted by forces on either side. Humanitarian access, which is already constrained, is likely to become more difficult..."