"Executive Summary: Since the 1 February 2021 coup, Rohingya communities in Rakhine State have endured tightening movement restrictions, a lack of job opportunities, rising living costs, and even greater precariousness in terms of their legal status. The nearly 1 million Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh have not fared much better, facing such a sharp deterioration in conditions that some told this analytical unit they suspect authorities to be deliberately destroying any prospect for a dignified life in order to force Rohingya to leave Bangladesh by whatever means possible. Rohingya people in both countries — especially youth — resort to high risk, illegal travel to third countries like Malaysia, where they reportedly believe that increased access to education and opportunities will result in a more secure and fulfilling future. Respondents in Bangladesh and northern Rakhine State still report significant numbers of individuals in their communities undertaking dangerous journeys abroad; however, it is difficult to verify whether the number of Rohingya doing so has increased, because exhaustive data on successful arrivals at intended destinations is not available. While large-scale Rohingya movement away from Myanmar and Bangladesh and on to Malaysia and elsewhere has been ongoing for at least the last 10 years, several significant shifts have taken place recently. Checkpoints have proliferated across Myanmar as the State Administration Council (SAC) struggles to secure control over the country, increasing the risk that Rohingya people will be caught if they violate movement restrictions by travelling beyond their state or township boundaries. Indeed, there are regularly 20–30 arrests per week.[1] Despite this, crackdowns on maritime trafficking and disastrous, high-profile pushback incidents involving boats carrying desperate Rohingya people[2] have led overland routes to become more prevalent relative to the sea routes favoured in the past. Those facilitating these journeys are reported to include, at a minimum, members of the Arakan Army (AA) and the Myanmar military–affiliated Border Guard Police (BGP). Women and girls are the most likely members of the Rohingya community to undertake the journey abroad by any route, and they are also at the highest risk of experiencing a range of abuses en route and upon arrival, including rape and other forms of sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV). Moreover, research by this analytical unit has found that, due to their dire circumstances in Bangladesh and Myanmar, many — if not most — Rohingya people likely lack the agency, options, and information to make a fully volitional, informed choice with respect to high-risk migration to Malaysia or beyond. With conditions likely to deteriorate further in the near term across Rohingya communities in both Bangladesh and Myanmar, the pressure and push factors that render Rohingya individuals prime targets for exploitative migration schemes will only continue to intensify over time. Acutely vulnerable on both sides of the border, Rohingya people will be at critical risk of further victimisation by transnational criminal networks for the foreseeable future. Upon examination of the facts and circumstances pertaining to Rohingya movement as conveyed to this analytical unit in over 160 interviews in 2022, it appears that the experience of many — perhaps most — Rohingya individuals seeking to reach Malaysia and other countries fits one basic fact pattern. First, these individuals are coerced or otherwise deceived into making the journey; second, they are clandestinely harboured and transported along perilous routes over a period of several months; third, they are subjected to exploitation upon arrival to their destination, in line with the apparent intentions of those facilitating their movement.[3] These steps appear to fulfil each of the three elements of the crime of trafficking in persons as defined and proscribed under international law.[4] In instances where various actors facilitate Rohingya persons’ unlawful crossing of one or more international borders simply in exchange for financial or material benefit — in other words, where movement is facilitated for purposes other than exploitation — the fact pattern would fulfil the criteria of migrant smuggling, rather than trafficking.[5] In prosecuting any crime that is defined, in part, by a specific intent on the part of the perpetrator, that intent element is often the most difficult to establish. Trafficking is no different; as regards ongoing Rohingya movement, establishing the intent of the actors facilitating that movement — in order to determine whether it is facilitated for the purpose of exploitation — is a challenge.[6] A definitive account of the facts and circumstances surrounding each journey is unavailable; although this analytical unit has conducted over 160 interviews with Rohingya community members with varying degrees of knowledge and direct experience of exploitative migration schemes, this analytical unit has not undertaken a broader investigation to identify the specific intent of those facilitating Rohingya movement or to establish their potential criminal liability. Such an investigation lies beyond the scope of this research and beyond the expertise of this analytical unit. However, consistent statements shared with this analytical unit by Rohingya community members suggest intention to exploit travellers is, in many if not most cases, contributing to the trend in Rohingya outflows from Myanmar and Bangladesh. Based on these statements, it would seem the movement of Rohingya individuals from these countries to Malaysia and elsewhere is best generally categorised as ‘trafficking’ rather than ‘smuggling.’[7] Wherever trafficking is suspected to occur, identifying the criminal activity as ‘trafficking’ rather than ‘smuggling’ can help enable the recognition and protection of the rights of victims. In part, this is because the most widely ratified international protocol that defines and prohibits human trafficking outlines a broad range of support to be provided to victims,[8] while the protocol outlawing migrant smuggling merely affords victims protection from prosecution.[9] Regardless of which criminal definition is most pertinent in the case of those facilitating Rohingya people’s movement, interviews indicate that Rohingya individuals transferred to Malaysia and elsewhere experience a range of serious abuse over the course of their journeys. International human rights law stipulates that all victims of such abuse be provided with appropriate assistance, protection, and remedies.[10] Rohingya individuals who have been subjected to abusive migration schemes should thus be afforded a far higher level of support than they are now receiving. This paper aims to contribute to a clearer understanding of the experiences of Rohingya individuals who have attempted perilous international journeys, as well as the pressures facing Rohingya individuals remaining in Myanmar and Bangladesh, in order to help to inform a stronger, better coordinated, and more comprehensive response to the crisis of exploitative migration schemes targeting Rohingya people..."