"THE IMPACT of climate change in Myanmar is likely to be immense and will play out in multi-dimensional ways. Beyond that, though, it is difficult to predict. In remote, upland areas of the country that are controlled or influenced by ethnic armed groups, political, economic and social trajectories are likely to diverge from the rest of Myanmar. Already, in some parts of the country, the monsoon – which provides most of the rainfall for agriculture on which about 70 percent of the population depends – is up to 30 days shorter, according to the World Wildlife Fund. Upland areas are projected to experience particularly steep rises in average temperatures, with devastating impacts on harvests, livelihoods and possibly the bare sustainability of human life. However, upland areas will be less severely affected by the rising sea levels that could destroy coastal areas. Myanmar is among the countries most vulnerable to rising sea levels. Low-lying farmland, such as in the Ayeyarwady delta, is at risk of flooding and salination, as well as being exposed to extreme weather, such as the devastation wrought by Cyclone Nargis in 2008. Neighbouring Bangladesh faces the same dangers, and in the not too distant future millions of Bangladeshis may become climate change refugees. Many of them may have little choice but to head east to Myanmar, as well as north and west to India. Combined with the domestic impacts of climate change, this would be highly destabilising, and could even undermine the viability of the state. Although not much discussed in the mainstream media, the possibility of climate change severely disrupting the basic parameters of modern social and economic life cannot be discounted. In this context, Myanmar's ethnic armed groups may receive a new lease of life. In Southeast Asia since the end of the Cold War, the viability of armed struggle by insurgent groups to achieve political goals has been in decline. Only in Myanmar and the Philippines do significant non-state armed groups remain active. Amid a failing peace process, and despite their political legitimacy among many conflict-affected communities, ethnic armed groups in Myanmar are struggling to demonstrate continued political relevance. However, they may experience a revival in fortunes if the state in Myanmar is severely weakened by the impact of climate change..."