"The outbreak of the novel coronavirus in the central Chinese city of Wuhan came at the worst possible time for Myanmar’s tourism industry, with the peak season lasting from October to March. The epidemic has been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organization and is having an economic impact well beyond China where economic growth is forecast by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) to fall to 5.4 percent from 5.9pc in 2020. Fitch Solutions Macro Research this month lowered its forecast for Myanmar’s real GDP growth for the financial year 2019-20 to 6.3pc from 6.5pc, down from an actual 6.8pc in 2018-19. It expects the slowdown in tourism activity to account for most of the impact as Chinese nationals accounted for nearly a third of over two million foreign tourists last year. But the impact of the virus outbreak goes beyond a drop in Chinese travellers. Crude oil prices have lost around US$10 per barrel since mid-January on coronavirus-related fears. China is the biggest oil importer and if economic activity slows further then analysts say benchmark oil prices could dip by another US$3-5 per barrel. Oil and gas exports account for roughly half of Myanmar’s total export revenues and a drop in price will affect the government’s efforts to attract foreign investment in the upcoming bidding round. The energy ministry is expected to release 15 offshore and 18 onshore blocks to international bidders later this year. The EIU’s global trade lead Nick Marro expects much of the economic shock to hit China in the first quarter, which he says will have consequences for ASEAN over that same period..."