Description:
"...This paper will present the current state of Burma?s economy, and explore the reforms
that will be necessary should sudden political change take place. Such proposed reforms
are limited to those required in a short to medium term horizon to stabilize the macroeconomy
and lay the foundations for future growth. Longer term structural changes are
also necessary if Burma is to begin to catch up? to the relative prosperity of its
neighbours and erstwhile peers, but these are noted simply in passing. Nevertheless, and
even according to this shorter horizon, profound changes to Burma?s political economy
will be necessary for any real gains in the socio-economic circumstances of its people. It
will also be apparent from what follows that economic reform in Burma will require changes that are not limited to macroeconomic policies (fiscal consolidation, exchange
rate unification, interest rate liberalization, and so on), but which also includes
fundamental institutional reform that will embrace the application of:
- effective property rights;
- basic freedoms (including at least an approximation of the rule of law);1
- basic functioning infrastructure;
- government policy-making that is rational, consistent and informed by a
reasonably honest and efficient civil service;
- market opening policies, including the removal of remaining restrictions on
private enterprise;
- openness to foreign trade and investment.
It is scarcely conceivable that such elements will be adopted by Burma?s current leaders,
which as a consequence raises the question of the country?s political trajectory. The
restrictions on enterprise imposed by Burma?s ruling junta, the self-styled State Peace
and Development Council? (SPDC), are precisely the means of its economic power and,
unreconstructed, it is unlikely to do a China? by relaxing economic control while
maintaining its grip on political power. Accordingly, there is a presumption in this paper
that the reforms outlined will be those applied by a new government in Burma, ideally
democratically elected, but at the very least one that is interested in pursuing genuine
economic development in its truest sense..."
Source/publisher:
Burma Economic Watch/Economics Department Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia
Date of Publication:
2008-05-00
Date of entry:
2008-11-28
Grouping:
- Individual Documents
Category:
Language:
English