Burma?s Economy 2008: Current Situation and Prospects for Reform

Description: 

"...This paper will present the current state of Burma?s economy, and explore the reforms that will be necessary should sudden political change take place. Such proposed reforms are limited to those required in a short to medium term horizon to stabilize the macroeconomy and lay the foundations for future growth. Longer term structural changes are also necessary if Burma is to begin to ‘catch up? to the relative prosperity of its neighbours and erstwhile peers, but these are noted simply in passing. Nevertheless, and even according to this shorter horizon, profound changes to Burma?s political economy will be necessary for any real gains in the socio-economic circumstances of its people. It will also be apparent from what follows that economic reform in Burma will require changes that are not limited to macroeconomic policies (fiscal consolidation, exchange rate unification, interest rate liberalization, and so on), but which also includes fundamental institutional reform that will embrace the application of: - effective property rights; - basic freedoms (including at least an approximation of the rule of law);1 - basic functioning infrastructure; - government policy-making that is rational, consistent and informed by a reasonably honest and efficient civil service; - market opening policies, including the removal of remaining restrictions on private enterprise; - openness to foreign trade and investment. It is scarcely conceivable that such elements will be adopted by Burma?s current leaders, which as a consequence raises the question of the country?s political trajectory. The restrictions on enterprise imposed by Burma?s ruling junta, the self-styled ‘State Peace and Development Council? (SPDC), are precisely the means of its economic power and, unreconstructed, it is unlikely to ‘do a China? by relaxing economic control while maintaining its grip on political power. Accordingly, there is a presumption in this paper that the reforms outlined will be those applied by a new government in Burma, ideally democratically elected, but at the very least one that is interested in pursuing genuine economic development in its truest sense..."

Creator/author: 

Sean Turnell

Source/publisher: 

Burma Economic Watch/Economics Department Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia

Date of Publication: 

2008-05-00

Date of entry: 

2008-11-28

Grouping: 

  • Individual Documents

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Language: 

English

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