"The issue of when the transition began has always interested Burmese scholars. Was it 2003? Or did it begin when the roadmap to democracy was crafted in 2008? Or did it begin when the new constitution cleared its final hurdles in 2011? Did it begin President Thein Sein became the first civilian head of state, or in 2016, when democracy took its biggest stride in Myanmar and Suu Kyi became the de facto leader of the country? Another important question is when the transition will end. Just as it has a beginning, a transition must also have an end. In this content, a successfully concluded transition would mean complete and genuine democracy and an apolitical army. Will this be achieved by 2020? Or by 2025? Or beyond? In the past ten months, several sharp fluctuations have been witnessed. Prior to October 2016, the dualism of power appeared to be working fine. Major initiatives on ethnic reconciliation were being undertaken; the Kofi Annan-led Advisory Commission on Rakhine State was established; foreign businesses received a huge welcome; and finally, an outreach initiative was undertaken to nurture and cultivate relationships with foreign powers. However, the period after October 2016 paints a different picture. There has been little progress on ethnic issues after the Panglong Conference. Strains have developed in Myanmar-ASEAN relations, especially in the Myanmar-Malaysia bilateral. The escalating Rohingya issue continues to be a casualty and to top it all, the assassination of the lawyer Ko Ni is highly disturbing. What does the present situation look like? To use an analogy, it appears as though Myanmar has two wives, the military and the NLD. All may seem harmonious in public, but not all is well in private..."