"The fighting in Kachin areas – the Kachin State itself and Kachin-majority parts of northern Shan State – has been one of the most serious threats to peace during Myanmar?s transition since it erupted in June 2011, ending a seventeen-year-long ceasefire. It remains the last of Myanmar?s decades-long ethnic conflicts not currently to have a ceasefire. Since Crisis Group first raised concerns in November 2011 about the grave consequences the breakdown of the ceasefire could pose for the country?s New Peace Initiative, other Storm Clouds have gathered on the country?s horizon, including virulent inter-communal violence in Rakhine State. These are serious challenges that must be overcome if Myanmar is to keep its broadly positive transition on track. But as Myanmar can see from the Indonesian experience, transitions are complicated, long, and often messy processes. They do not always end up as those who advocated or started them intended. There are many deviations and frequently bumps in the road..."