ROBERT H. TAYLOR’S SPEAKERS NOTES WHEN
PRESENTING THE REPORT
“Supporting Burma/Myanmar’s national
reconciliation process: Challenges and Opportunities”,
I.
We
shall present our report in two sections
A.
First
I will summarise our methodology and findings on the political, economic and
social situation in
B.
Morten
will then present our conclusions and recommendations
C.
It
is for others to judge the value of our report but we trust that it will be
considered on its merits
D.
Policy
toward
E.
It
is also important not to have our analysis clouded by ideologies of the left or
right, a desire to score cheap political points, or vindictiveness born of
frustration or lack of understanding
II.
It
would be in order to declare my personal interests, if any, in
A.
I
can say that there are none
B.
As
my credentials have been questioned in some circles, I should perhaps explain
who I am and how I came to write the report with Morten
1. First, my nationality about which
there seems to be some mystery – I was born an American, became an Australian,
and since the mid-1980s have been British
2. My academic career – I have taught
at four universities in the
3. I retired in 2000 and since then
have been
a. A very part-time consultant for
Premier Oil from mid-2001 to mid-2003 which post-dated by a decade their
investment in
b. Since then I have been a Visiting
Senior Research Fellow for two periods at the
c. My primary income is my pension from
the Universities Superannuation Fund which prides itself in having no
investments in
d. I also received a per diem stipend
when I sit as a lay member of the Immigration Appeals Tribunal of the Lord
Chancellor’s Department
4. I have no investments in
5. I have written monographs books on
Burma/Myanmar and have edited, co-edited or co-authored seven others on South
East Asian politics and history as well as having contributed more than 70
articles to scholarly books and journals
6. I have visited
III.
The
terms of reference set by the EU for our report were three fold:
A.
“To
provide an internal assessment of the
prospects for national reconciliation under current conditions and assess this
against the background of successful transitions in other countries
particularly in the region.”
B.
“To
assess whether current EU approaches to encouraging national reconciliation required
amending or complementing with other initiatives.”
C.
“To
discuss how EU assistance can be used to support both national reconciliation
and human development.” – the main purpose of the discussions to follow in the
afternoon
IV.
We
prepared the report in
A.
Certain
things, however, appeared fairly certain and these remain the same today
B.
The
army government is firmly in power and is unlikely to be toppled in the
foreseeable future
C.
The
army has a plan for a political transition which will place it in a dominant
position as a result of the constitutional convention which adjourned again
last week
D.
The
ethnic minority ceasefire groups reluctantly are cooperating with the army in
establishing a new order in
1. Both a desire to avoid resumed and
futile bloodshed and
2. A lack of viable alternatives to
establishing a modus vivendi with the armed forces
E.
Neighbouring
countries, particularly
F.
Despite
growing criticism of the slowness of the regime’s transition to civilian
government and the continued house arrest of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the ASEAN
governments are unlikely to take any action which would undermine the regime in
V.
Against
this gloomy scenario, however, they were some conclusions we reached which
provide room within the Common Position for the EU and its humanitarian aid
programme to be effective in assisting the development of civil society in the
country as a contribution to political change
A.
Unlike
before 1988, there are now NGOs and INGOs operating
in the country genuinely separate from the government though of necessity
requiring the government’s cooperation
B.
Also,
UN agencies have been able to work effectively in health, education, and
agriculture to assist the poorest communities in the country
C.
Despite
the changes in government in October last year, agreements reached and modus vivendi achieved between the authorities and the AID
community have been maintained
D.
The
country is now much more physically integrated than in the past as a result of a
major infrastructure development programme
E.
Communication
links to neighbouring countries are also much more established allowing for
more border trade, tourism and international cooperation
F.
Despite
the maintenance of severe constraints on freedom of expression and information,
more news and information about the outside world is now available in the
country
VI.
Against
these positive developments, however,
A.
A
small middle class which had its assets nationalised under the previous
socialist regime and is largely dependent on the government for employment and
business opportunities
B.
A
history of 50 years of civil strife between the central government and a
plethora of ethnic minorities which only in the last 15 years have reached
ceasefire agreements with the government
C.
The
absence of free discussion and debate within the country for more than 50 years
often leading to an absence of realistic political discussions now
D.
Little
international leverage over the regime because of the lack of integration of
the economy into the world economy – Myanmar’s ratio of trade to GDP in local
currently terms must be the lowest in Asia if not the world
VII.
Morten
and I share certain assumptions which other analysts of what Myanmar and other
transitional or would-be transitional societies also share -- these include,
and I quote from the United Nation’s Human Rights Special Rapporteur for
Myanmar, Professor Sergio Paulo Pinheiro’s speech last week at the Human Rights
Commission in Geneva, the fact that
A.
CIVIL
SOCIETY IS CRUCIAL “Societies
must continue to be empowered to be able to strengthen their economic and
social capacity.”
B.
SUBSTANTIAL
POLICY ISSUES MUST BE ADDRESSED TO ENCOURAGE CHANGE “There is a pressing need in
C.
ECONOMIC
AND SOCIAL RIGHTS WILL BE BETTER GUARANTEED IF MYANMAR IS INTEGRATED INTO THE
WORLD ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL SYSTEM “With respect to economic and social
rights, there are areas of concern which could be addressed by the Government,
economists, political parties and other players, with assistance and advice
from the United Nations, international agencies and neighbouring states,
thereby paving the way for the integration of Myanmar into international
financial and economic structures.”
D.
A
SUCCESSFUL TRANSTION FROM MILITARY RULE REQUIRES AN EFFECTIVE CIVILIAN BUREAUCRACY “I wish
to underline the fact that the State apparatus and its agents will not just
disappear after the political transition has been completed. No effective political transition can take
place . . . in an administrative vacuum.
As was the case in many democratic transitions in the twentieth century,
even subsequent to direct military rule, many State agents and bureaucrats with
experience in running the country, including judges, public prosecutors and
army officials, will remain in office to prevent instability.”
E.
NOW
IS A TIME FOR BOLD ACTION AS CONDITIONS IN THE COUNTRY ARE DETERIORATING FOR
THE LEAST ADVANTAGED “Despite
the setbacks, it is more necessary than ever that the international community
broadens its vision and not to let its expectations be shattered by
frustration.”
F.
Professor
Pinheiro calls for special action to support political reform supported by the
international community including civil service reform, privatisation and
greater efficiency in the public sector, anti-corruption measures, reforms in
education, improvements in health care, demobilisation and integration of
former combatants, environmental protection and the creation of safety nets for
the poor and disadvantaged
VIII.
Our
report is based on two trips to
IX.
On
the political side, we concluded that despite the departure of General Khin
Nyunt, the road map process would continue
A.
However,
how long it will take is something that we miss judged as did a number of our
informants, some of whom are participants in that process
B.
The
suspension of the convention last Thursday not to be resumed until the end of
the year suggests that getting a constitution agreed, written and ratified in a
referendum will take longer than we expected
C.
This,
however, does not undermine our conclusions that
1. The army is firmly in power and
faces no serious political opposition
2. The future of the NLD and its
leadership remains greatly constrained
3. The ceasefire groups and ethnic
communities will remain by and large warily cooperative with the government
4. The international situation
surrounding
X.
This
depressing scenario is made even more so when one turns to our conclusions on
the socio-economic situation
A.
A
complete and precise analysis is impossible because of the absence of reliable
data
B.
But
general economic trends are apparent as are the social consequences of them
C.
The
economy has now ceased to grow and the poorest are those who are suffering most
from this situation
D.
The
causes of the lack of growth are not hard to identify
1. The first and most obvious is the
government’s own miserable economic management --- ad hocery
and self-delusion too often pass for policy and analysis in top government
circles
2. This is facilitated by absence of
international economic contacts which could force sanity onto policy makers
E.
The
social implications of this situation are stark
1. Under increasing pressure, the
poorest sectors of society are forced to adopt coping mechanisms which are
leading to a run down of assets for the future
2. These included selling assets,
cutting meals, leaving school, all of which further contribute to their
vulnerability
3. At least at least one third and
perhaps half of the population are living below minimum subsistence levels;
conditions are worst in areas of conflict or previously of conflict, as well as
peri-urban areas and the central dry zone
4. Food security is becoming a problem
in some areas as insufficient protein, micro-nutrients and energy food is
consumed
5. Malnutrition particularly amongst
the youngest children is a growing problem
6. Communicable diseases such as TB,
HIV/AIDs, Malaria are growing problems which is well
documented
7. Sadly, for a country which once
prided itself on its high literacy rates, educational standards are falling and
now more than 50 per cent of children do not complete five years of basic
schooling
XI.
The
root of these problems are to be found in serious structural weaknesses
A.
A
traditional, agricultural economy for the majority
B.
Weak
linkages to the international economy
C.
Weak
state finances and low rates of tax collection leading to forms of “informal”
taxation and corruption
D.
Rudimentary
banking system
E.
Weak
manufacturing base
F.
Declining
natural resource base – soil deterioration, logging and mining
G.
Multiple
exchange rate regime
H.
Chronic
high inflation fuelled by the printing of money to cover government
expenditures
I.
Widespread
un- and under-employment
J.
Weak
and underfunded education and health systems
XII.
Even
if the military were to hand over power tomorrow to a civilian government which
re-oriented priorities away from defence to addressing these problems, the
magnitude of these issues is so great that international assistance is
required; indeed, now is the time to address these problems so they do not
overwhelm the possibilities of substantial change in the future
A.
International
assistance it is required now in order to make a new regime viable as well as addressing
the humanitarian issues thrown up by this appalling scene
B.
As
Professor Pinheiro said last week, “I continue to believe that the
international community cannot wait for the end of the political transition to
cooperate on initiatives aimed at improving the lives of vulnerable persons in
C.
Amongst
the human rights that are being denied the people of
D.
Turn
to Morten to discuss possible EU policy and options to consider for the future
POST-PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSANTS REMARKS
1. People should read the report for
what it says and not criticise it for what it does not say. There is probably a greater meeting of minds
between our most vociferous critics and ourselves than
they realise. Twenty five pages was the
limit for what we were allowed to right.
We could have written 300 pages and covered everything but many things
we have to take us understood by the reader such as the fact that the
government is military and not democratic or that human rights abuses
occur. The report was written in the
context of the goals of the EU Common Position and is intended to make their
achievement more realisable.
2. The point made by one of the
participants in the audience that reconciliation must proceed democratisation
or the latter will fail is an important one.
3. Forced labour and other issues were
not mentioned in the report because that was not our remit; we assumed, perhaps
erroneously or naively, that readers would understand that was understood.
4. The next time I am asked to write a
report, assuming there is one, I will publish it under a pseudonym so that
people will read what it says, rather than what they think it says.