BURMA NEWS INTERNATIONAL

 

5 October 2004

 

* Trade gap between Bangladesh and Myanmar widens

* AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH LARRY JAGAN, A BURMA SPECIALIST

 

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Trade gap between Bangladesh and Myanmar widens

 

October 5, 2004: (Narinjara News)

 

The trade gap widened between Bangladesh and Myanmar in the past eight

years and the trade gap ratio has become drastically higher, according

to the Export Promotion Bureau.

 

The trade gap started since 1997-98. Previously, the volume of exports

from Bangladesh to Myanmar was higher than imports.

 

In fiscal year 2002-2003, Bangladesh exported to Myanmar goods valued

at Taka 5.7 Crore, while its imports from Myanmar amounted to Taka

151.3 Crore, resulting in a trade imbalance of Taka 145.6 Crore.

 

The gap was drastically higher and the export and import ratio of

Bangladesh and Myanmar was 1: 0.90. Bangladesh exports to Myanmar were

valued at Taka 14.73 Crore and imports valued at Taka 16.23 Crore in

1996-97.

 

Just a year later the gap ratio jumped up 1: 27.8. In 1997-98,

Bangladesh only exported goods worth Taka 6.26 Crore to Myanmar, while

the imports from Myanmar amounted to the much larger Taka 38.88 Crore,

bringing the ratio to 1:27.8.

 

In 1998-99 the export earnings of Bangladesh from Myanmar were only

Taka 6.10 Crore, while the import expenditure was Taka 74.22 Crore in

1999-00, with export earnings of only Taka 3.00 Crore. In fiscal year 

2000-01, export earnings were Taka 5.88 Crore, while the import

expenditure was Taka 133.26 crore. The year 2001-02 saw export

earnings of Taka 13.78 Crore, while the import expenditure was Taka

97.29 crore.

 

In fiscal year 1996-97, the trade volume ratio between the two

countries was almost equal, 1:1.95 in 1995-96, and 1:1.79 in 1994-95.

 

The volume of bilateral trade between the two countries over the last

couple of years only further exemplifies the widening trade gap

against Bangladesh.

 

The primary exports from Bangladesh to Myanmar are chemical products

and knitwear. On the other hand, Bangladesh imports cereals, wood and

wood products, wood charcoal, food industry residues and waste, and

ready-made animal fodder from Myanmar

 

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AN EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW WITH LARRY JAGAN, A BURMA SPECIALIST

 

by Lao Htaw, Independent Mon News Agency

 

In the following interview, Larry Jagan, a Burma specialist on

politics, says: “I think that the opening of the second session of the

National Convention (NC) gives ethnic leaders a new opportunity, but

they must be strong. If I was an ethnic leader, I would go to the NC

but I would not buckle under. They have to protest, they have to speak

out, they have to force the authorities to allow them to meet each

other. And more importantly as an ethnic leader, I would want to see

all ethnic leaders signing up to one agreement.”  Please read the

whole interview below.

 

Loa Htaw:       Larry, thank you very much for giving me a chance to

interview you. First of all, let me introduce myself to you again. My

name is Loa Htaw. I am working for the Independent Mon News Agency as

well as for a Mon newspaper. My first question is how do you think on

the cease-fire groups, which have been attending the SPDC-arranged

National Convention (NC).

 

Larry:          Sorry, I am not quite sure what you are asking.

 

Loa Htaw:       I mean do you think they should attend the next coming

NC or should they leave?

 

Larry:          Well, this is a question that is very difficult for me

as an independent journalist to answer, if you are asking me to make a

value judgment!

 

Loa Htaw:       I only would like to get comments from you.

 

Larry:          (With a laugh) Well, I mean it is a difficult question

to answer because I think the ethnic minority should attend the NC

because it will give them an opportunity to be still involved in the

constitutional drafting process. However, they have to feel their

point of view is actually going to be accepted, that the proposal they

put forward will be considered by the convener. If they feel their

point of view is going to be ignored, and all their presence is doing

is just trying to give the NC some credibility, then I think the

ethnic leaders have every right not to attend.

 

Loa Htaw:       Now, they already know the most important points they

demanded in the first section of the NC are being ignored, especially

on the federal state and democracy. So do they need to continue the

next coming NC?

 

Larry:          My understanding is that the convening committee has

accepted the papers they put forward, but there is no guarantee it

will be discussed at the next section. I also understand that military

intelligence officers have been going around talking to the ethnic

leaders and bringing messages from Khin Nyunt, which say if you don’t

participate, we will draft the constitution anyway.

 

Loa Htaw:       Now Larry, of course they have accepted some points in

the paper, but the most important points that they demanded are being

rejected. So do you think they should still attend again, because,

though they attend again, they can’t demand any more and what they

have demanded is already being rejected?

 

Larry:          My understanding is that not everything has been

rejected and that may be an opportunity to ask for further discussion.

I think there will be ethnic leaders in a very difficult situation. If

they don’t attend the NC second session, then it is actually going to

isolate them. If they do attend and there isn’t free debate and

discussion, then they’re going to lose credibility with their own

people. I believe that what the ethnic groups should be doing is

actually coming up with an alternative proposal, with which all the

ethnic groups agree, not just some. And the need for ethnic rights is

something every ethnic group, no matter what their political position,

believes in, the need for ethnic rights and education in their own

ethnic languages. These are what every ethnic group agrees on.

Therefore it’s important that all ethnic groups come up with a

universal position. The problem with the NC is that the authorities

are trying to play one group off against another by offering economic

concession to some members of some groups, rather than tackling the

real political issues. I think the only way the ethnic groups can do

that is by having a united front.

 

Loa Htaw:       Larry, in the Mon area, although during the NC the

government has closed down some Mon National Schools and land

confiscations are still continuing, do they still need to attend again?

 

Larry:          (Laughs) Well I think in any article you write you can

point out these things. I am afraid my position is still the same, I

think ethnic leaders are in a very difficult situation. Because the NC

is taking place, the government has not given any guarantees that

during that period there would be an increase of democracy. After all,

the political parties (National League for Democracy and Shan National

League for Democracy) aren’t even being allowed to participate. Their

people are being arrested. It seems to me that even though the NC may

be discussing a new constitution that should improve the rights of all

Burmese citizens including ethnic minorities, the practice is that on

the ground nothing has changed.

 

Loa Htaw:       Larry, do you see the Burmese NC as a real NC and can

you tell me an example of a foreign country NC, especially what are

the differences from the Burma NC?

 

Larry:          Well, let’s take the second question first. The NC the

Burmese regime formed to draw up a new constitution really is

something relatively unique. Very few countries have done anything

like this, and if they have, it has usually been a century ago. We saw

something like an NC in Australia when they drew up their constitution

in the late 19th Century. So, I think in modern times, the NC Burma is

running is actually unique. So there are no parallels outside Burma

that we could look to and say: this is how the NC should operate.

Having said that though, there is a contradiction between what the NC

is supposed to be doing, that is, drawing up a new constitution that

will be fairer and guarantee the rights of Burmese people, and the

attitude of the government, which hasn’t changed. It is exactly the

same as it was before and after May 17, when the NC opened. I think

the biggest issue an international observer would be concerned about

is the lack of freedom of speech.  Any NC drawing up a constitution

should have total freedom of speech and association of NC members.

They should say what they like. They should also meet and talk to

whoever they want. Unfortunately, that is not part of the NC, so it

runs counter to international norms of political behavior. But there

is no model the Burmese could or should be following. It seems to me

the NC is totally stalled. To me it’s too early to condemn the NC as a

total failure and sham. One had great doubts about the NC when

political parties weren’t allowed to participate. That to me is

reducing the credibility. It severely reduces the NC’s credibility. If

the NC is not allowed to discuss ethnic rights, that also reduces NC

credibility.

 

Loa Htaw:       So you mean that without allowing them to discuss

ethnic rights, without UN participation as an observer, and without

the media, cease-fire groups should not attend the next session of the

NC?

 

Larry:          (Laughs) It is not for me to say what they should do.

What I would say is that without political parties, without ethnic

rights and demands being discussed, and without transparency - which

doesn’t have to be the UN, or international or local reporters - but

without some kind of transparency, the NC really has very little

credibility. Credibility is the word I would use.

 

Loa Htaw:       Can you give me one example of foreign country NC?

 

Larry:          No, there isn’t any. Most places where they drew up

constitutions in a similar way back in the 19th Century, in American

and Australi, the world is 100 years on. The Burma NC is almost unique.

 

Loa Htaw:       For example, if you are in an ethnic leader’s

position, do you decide to attend or not, Larry?

 

Larry:          If I was an ethnic leader at this stage, I would be

tempted to attend, although we have seen problems in the first NC

session. I think that the opening of the second session of the

National Convention (NC) gives ethnic leaders a new opportunity, but

they must be strong. If I was an ethnic leader, I would go to the NC

but I would not buckle under. They have to protest, they have to speak

out, they have to force the authorities to allow them to meet each

other. And more importantly as an ethnic leader, I would want to see

all ethnic leaders signing up to one agreement. The problem with the

NC is that if they speak alone, they will be picked off. Every trade

unionist knows in unity there is strength. The ethnic leaders’ biggest

mistake in my view is not forming a strong alliance of ethnic groups.

I know there’s been discussing, I know there’s been changing of views,

but what is really needed is a strong alliance of ethnic groups. So

that when they go back to the NC, they can speak from a position of

strength, because ethnic groups have an opportunity.  Only the ethnic

groups; they’re the ones who could have the strength; they’re the ones

who have an influence on where the NC goes in the future.

 

Loa Htaw:       OK Larry, let’s say some ethnic groups leave the NC

and will be against the government again. At the time do you think

they will get attention from the international community?

 

Larry:          I think the international community is in a position,

if only some ethnic groups don’t attend the NC, if it isn’t a

universal boycott, if it isn’t all the ethnic groups, then I think the

international community will find it difficult to support ethnic

groups which have not gone to the convention. They will be sympathetic

but  will have difficulty supporting ethnic groups who decide not to

go to the NC. I think as far as the international community is

concerned they have limited influence. We’ve seen that General Than

Shwe doesn’t care what anyone in the outside world thinks about Burma.

You can level sanctions; you can pressure Burmese representatives in

international meetings, but in the end, he just will not budge. And in

some ways, the more pressure you put on Than Shwe the less likely he

is to change. So I think the international community, in my view, is

important. It has no power. If some ethnic groups do not attend the

NC, then it will give journalist like myself an opportunity to write

stories about the NC. The problem is for a journalist who wants to

expose what is happening inside Burma. If the NC meets everyday and

nobody says a word, that is not a story. If two or three, or even one

big ethnic group boycott the NC, that’s a story. That means

journalists will be able to write an analysis. So, there will be

international attention, even though I doubt there will be

international support.

 

Loa Htaw:       Recently the government also changed some ministers

such as the foreign minister and deputy minister. Do you think this

change will affect the NC?

 

Larry:          I think the changes of the foreign minister and deputy

foreign minister will not affect the NC as such. I think what that

showed is that the hardliners, specifically Than Shwe, are

strengthening their control of power. I think it shows that Than Shwe

in particular is not prepared to listen to the international

community. I think it shows the regime is pulling down the shutters;

it’s closing the windows and doors of Burma to the outside world, and

that will affect the political future of Burma. In my view it won’t

affect the NC.

 

Loa Htaw:       Do you think the ethnic groups should agree with

whatever constitution comes out?

 

Larry:          In theory the Khin Nyunt roadmap to democracy was

something that seemed to have credibility. There seemed to be concrete

stages towards a form of multiparty democracy. The NC would meet

freely. It would be inclusive; the political parties would be

involved. It would draw up a constitution, which would then be put to

referendum and, if voted on or if it was accepted by referendum, then

there would be new elections. In theory that is all very good but

we’ve seen that, from stage one, the NC is not inclusive. The reality

is that the military are going to draft the constitution they want.

Even Prime Minister Khin Nyunt has told ethnic groups that is what’s

going to happen. Unfortunately that constitution is probably not going

to be what the majority of Burmese people, including the ethnic

groups, want.

 

Loa Htaw:       My last question is as they show on MRTV, where they

claim everyday that the NC is going to be successful. How do you think

on that?

 

Larry:          The Burmese military may claim that the NC is going to

be successful and it is going to draw up a constitution I am afraid I

am doubtful. What we have seen all the way along is broken promises by

the regime, and I have little faith that the constitution that is

drafted at the end of the NC will be one with which the Burmese people

as a whole will be happy.

 

***End***

 

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such as Mizzima News, Shan Herald Agency for News, Kao Wao News Group,

Khonumthung News Group, Narinjara News, Kaladan Press Network,

Independent Mon News Agency, Karenni Information

Network Group and Network Media Group.

 

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