BNI Weekly News - December 22,2003
. Monopoly dealership, distribute MI-18
. Burma-Bangladesh Director general level meeting start today in Rangoon
. FURTHER RESTRICTION IMPOSED ON THE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT OF THE ROHINGYA
. Karenni rebels ready to talk with Junta
. Forced labor for harvest in Northern Arakan
. WB to Help Bangladesh- Burma Rail Networks
. Delay of newspapers in Sittwe
. Revenue from Burma-Bangla border trade higher than expected
. Flag staff meeting held at Cox’sbazar, infiltration main issue
. No more free rice trading in Arakan, says the SPDC
. Force labour for construction Ngapali Sea beach tourism complex
. Army demolishes village for making Recreation Park
. AHOM: The Forgotten Burmese
. A Total Replacement or Peaceful Negotiation (Burma)
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Monopoly dealership, distribute MI-18 - Consumers and small traders in problem
22 December 2003:
In Maung Daw and Buthedaung townships of Arakan state, Military Intelligence
(MI)-18 is giving out sole-dealer permit of one commodity to one
individual, creating monopoly on the market that hit hard the consumers and
other businessmen, according to our correspondent.
General Consumers are compelled to buy daily necessities at the high price
from monopoly-dealers who have got sole-agent permit from the MI-18.
A primary teacher,” We general people suffer the worst. All the consumers
goods including rice to chilli are given to sole agents respectively, “one
agent, one commodity,” basis. For example in our market area, sole agent of
edible oil dealership was given to Maung Ba, that means, only Maung Ba shall
buy and sell this commodity, except him, none shall deal that commodity. As
a result, he plays the market; fixation of price depends on him, at his
will. But you see, he also had to manage to obtain his monopoly dealership
by giving huge amount of money to MI-18 personnel. That’s why he is selling
things at the price he wishes to.” explained to the reporter.
At Buthedaung and Maung Daw consumers goods including toiletries to alcohol
are given sole agents to different persons as monopoly dealers.
Another grievant says, “ in our market, rice, edible oil, chilli, onion even
gas lighter filling also given to sole agents. After this monopoly system,
for filling a gas lighter costs kyat 25, this before it was kyat 10.”
The report further says that price of a drum of Alcohol making chemical
agent called BEDC at Maung Daw is kyat 1,50,000 and in Sittwe kyat 92,000.
The dealers have to pay kyat 20,000 to MI-18 for transporting one drum of
that chemical each, from Sittwe to Maung Daw, even if he is a permitted
dealer by MI-18.
From our reliable sources, it is gathered, that the MI-18 are distributing
monopoly dealerships to the individuals of the markets of towns and villages
by taking huge amount of money to drive fund for MI-18 based at Buthe Daung.
#
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Burma-Bangladesh Director general level meeting start today in Rangoon
21 Dec 2003:
The Director General of Immigration Department of Burma and The chief of
Bangladesh Border Rifle (BDR) meet today in Rangoon to settle problems of
arms and drug smuggling and frequent insecure incident faced by Bangladesh
fishermen, reports our correspondent.
Director General of BDR Major General Jahangir Alam Chowdhury leads 8members
delegation of Bangladesh side. Director General of Burma Immigration
Department Aung Thay leads 11 members of Burma team including
representatives from Defence Ministry, Foreign Affairs and Border Security
Force Nasaka in the meeting.
The meeting will be six days long.
The meeting is expected to discuss about holding of flag meeting to settle
disputes rising between the two sides smoothly with the hope of the
improving relations between the two countries, said officials.
Border affairs consultation between the two countries held first in 1993 in
Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh had decided to hold such meetings in every
six months. #
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FURTHER RESTRICTION IMPOSED ON THE FREEDOM OF MOVEMENT OF THE ROHINGYA
21 December 2003:
Recently, the SPDC authorities have imposed severe restrictions on the
movement of the Rohingyas in northern Arakan, according to our
correspondent.
For traveling from Buthidaung to Maungdaw, a distance of 16 miles within the
same locality, a Rohingya has to obtain recommendation first from Village
Peace and Development Council (VPDC) paying Kyat 200, then Form 4, (which is
normally used for foreigners) with recommendation from Township Immigration
Office paying Kyat 500. After that he has to approach with all these papers
and recommendations, to the Nasaka transit camp at the gate of Buthidaung
town for its permission paying Kyat 200. Finally, he has to appear before
the offices of TPDC and DPDC submitting all the relevant papers and
recommendations for approval by paying bribes of Kyat 500 and Kyat 200
respectively, he further added.
In return journey, he has to pay Kyat 200 at the District Immigration office
of Maungdaw. For staying one night at Maungdaw he has to pay Kyat 500 to the
Maungdaw Nasaka check post, 3 miles off the Maungdaw town, and another Kyat
500 to the Buthidaung Nasaka transit camp, said a businessman.
Thus, a person has to pay a total of Kyat 2,800 to get permission for a
round-trip from Buthidaung to Maungdaw and, vice versa, without any other
expenses, he further added.
For one-month resident permit, one has to pay Kyat 15,000 to the Nasaka
check post of Maungdaw. If any traveler is found to have not complied with
the order he is imprisoned for six months with hard labor.
Muslim Rohingyas are not allowed to go to other towns of Arakan including
Sittwe, the capital of Arakan State, following the communal riots that broke
out between the two major ethnic peoples of Rohingya and Rakhiang. These
riots were incited and used as a weapon by SPDC to odd the ethnic unity.#
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Karenni rebels ready to talk with Junta
20 December 2003:
Two-day long meeting of the top leaders of Karenni National Progressive
Party (KNPP) has decided to talk with Burma’s military junta when the junta
propose, the Prime Minister of Karenni rebel government Mann Aung Than Lay
said.
Mann Aung Than Lay said after the meeting, “We have not decided who will be
in our delegation. We will hold emergency meeting to discuss who will
delegate us to talk on what issues only when the junta propose.”
Though there is no formal proposal for cease-fire talk from the regime, the
KNPP had received a letter through a mediator one month ago by saying no
specific offer but to come back to legal fold mentioning the prevailing
situation in Burma, Mann Aung Than Lay revealed.
He also turns down the rumors of negotiation speculation between the SPDC
and KNPP, led by Deputy Prime Minister Abel Tweed along with Chief-of-staff
Be Htoo.
The KNPP holds their policy since several decades and has opened the door
for talks in order to get genuine peace in the country. “This is not the new
policy. We had adopted to solve the political problems by talks since 1946,”
the Prime Minster said.
Meanwhile, the biggest armed rebel group of Burma, the Karen group (KNU) has
entered into cease-fire talk with military regime with the help of Thai
army.
KNPP and military regime reached a cease-fire agreement in 1995, but it was
dissolved within a few months.#
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Forced labor for harvest in Northern Arakan
20 December 2003:
The Military Operation Command (MOC-15) Commander ordered to the villagers
of Buthidaung Township, Arakan State to harvest 10 acres of land, according
to our correspondent.
The MOC-15 is based in Dabru Chaung village of Buthidaung Township. The
villagers of Quen Dine, Nanragon, Tharakkani and Sinyan Way of Buthidaung
south are being engaged in forced labors for harvest of paddy lands.
Previously, MOC-15 seized this arable land from Rohingya villages, adjacent
to military Headquarters and had been used for growing paddy with forced
labors and now the time of harvest, he further added.
The Commander warned the villagers to take serious action in case of
non-compliance. As a result, since 12th December 2003, a total of 100 labors
from four villages have been working daily on the harvest site by rotation,
another villager said who was engaged in forced labor.
The said Commander gathered all the laborers who were engaged with forced
labor, asked them to affix their signatures and thumb impressions on blank
paper sheets, as acknowledgement of voluntary services for the harvest, he
further said.
The villagers have to reap the paddy fields and were fed by the villagers.
Besides, they had to do other works such as threshing, carrying, storing the
grains in the granary and put the paddy into heat, etc.
Though, the Nasaka issued a request to the local authorities of Nasaka to
stop the use of forced labor on November 14, 2003, the Military Operation
Commander (MOC-15) is still in practice of forced labor. #
____________________________________
WB to Help Bangladesh-Burma Rail Networks
20 December 2003:
The World Bank (WB) has expressed its interest to provide financial
assistance for construction of Bangladesh-Burma rail networks, according to
UNB, a local news agency.
This was disclosed at meeting on 17th December 2003, between Communication
Minister Barrister Najmul Huda and World Bank delegation, led by its
visiting Sector Director of South Asia Region, Mr. John Rumi.
They discussed the formation of a “ Road Fund” for maintenance of national
and regional highways, strengthening of Bangladesh Road and Transport
Association (BRTA), introduction of highway petrol police with assistance
from the Bank, on construction of district link road and 128 km
Dohajari-Cox’s Bazar- Burma single line railway.
The delegation members told the minister that the WB would work as the
Coordinator to secure necessary funds from donor countries and international
development agencies. #
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Delay of newspapers in Sittwe
19 December 2003:
The government controlled presses in Sittwe are unable to publish the
Burmese newspapers on time. Hence, the city newspaper readers have to get
the papers from Rangoon.
“The local press offices in Sittwe cannot publish the papers on time. Local
prints come out later than those come from Rangoon. Sittwe residents can
read the local print two days late, and the readers are getting very
impatient. Now, we are reading the papers send from Rangoon” said a
newspaper distributor from Maw Lake Quarter.
However, the newspaper demand in Arakan cannot be met from Rangoon, since
Rangoon printings do not count the demand of Arakan state. The newspapers to
be distributed in Arakan state are to be published from an Sittwe Newspaper
press, but it has only been able to publish at least three days late.
“They should have thought through properly. There is no electricity in
Sittwe. Computer and email work only with electricity. This is just a public
relation stunt. It is all chaos here since there is no planning from the
government planners. It is a pity that we can’t even read the newspapers on
time,” an Sittwe resident complained.
The junta set up newspaper press in the capital cities of States and
Divisions, so that the regional people could get the newspapers on the day,
everyday. However, due to the frequent black-outs in Sittwe, there is delay
in getting news through the net as well as being able to print the papers,
and the people are having difficulties get the paper on time, everyday.
A printing press to publish the government controlled Myanmar Alin and
Kyemon newspapers was opened on August 26, in Sittwe, by the President of
the Arakan State Peace and Development Council Maung Oo and the Deputy
Minister for Information Brig-Gen Aung Thein. And the junta media boasted
that Sittwe residents could have the some rights and access to information
and news as their counterparts in Rangoon.#
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Revenue from Burma-Bangla border trade higher than expected
18 December 2003:
The revenue from border trade between Burma and Bangladesh has surpassed the
expected target in just five months between July to November, Bangladesh
popular daily “ The Ittefaq” reported.
According to the report published in paper's edition on December 15,
Bangladesh custom earns Taka (TK) 45 million equivalent to 777470 US dollars
in five months of last 2003.
The custom department had estimated that the earning would be about TK-138
million in 5 months, but they have grossed TK-184.89 million, surpassing the
revenue target, Custom department of Chittagong told journalists.
Md Abdul Gofur, the custom superintendent of Chittagong said that from the
Burmese side goods that come to the Bangladeshi side include fishes,
turmeric, jujube dry and pickled, spices, shoes, sandals, Burmese lungyi,
blanket, dry fishes, rice, paddy, bamboo and cane. But most of the Burmese
export, about 70 per cent, constitutes of fish and consequently, the largest
share of the revenue earning is from fish products, the newspaper added.
The paper said, Burmese goods that are smuggled into Bangladesh include
3-rifle brand cloth, Chinese torch and battery cells, wine and beers of
different kinds.
On the other hand, from Bangladesh side the smuggled goods include medicine,
fertilizer and US currency.
The Customs officers believe that if smuggling is stopped, Bangladesh would
greatly benefit from increased revenue.
The newspaper reports that on a seven-day border visa Bangladeshi traders
can travel up to Sittwe (Akyab), the capital of Arakan state, but are
allowed to buy commodities from Maung daw, the nearest border town.
The ships from Burma are supposed to anchor at the recently newly
inaugurated jetty at Naf River near border town of Teknaf , the report said.
__________________________________________________
Flag staff meeting held at Cox’sbazar, infiltration main issue
18 December 2003:
A regional commander level flag meeting between Burma and Bangladesh was
held at BDR guest house at Cox’sbazar, southeast district of Bangladesh
closest to Burma border, on 8th December.
Border Security Force Nasaka Deputy Commander attended the meeting alongwith
other 25 personnel and the chief of BDR in Chittagong region, flanked by
nine personnel.
Discussion at the meeting was focused on regular infiltration from both the
sides, illegal logging from Burma and to find the ways and means to stop
theft of domestic animals harming causing big loss of both the sides.
An agreement was signed by the two sides at the conclusion of the meeting.
Both sides emphasised the issue of Burmese insurgents Burma inside boarding
area of Bangladesh and on ways to stop infiltration through 0joint effort.
The meeting that began at 9 AM ended at 5 PM. After the meeting Burmese
participants visited the famous Buddhist temple in Cox’sbazar pay their
respects to the ancient Buddha images made by Rakhaing artists.
_____________________________________
No more free rice trading in Arakan, says the SPDC
17 December 2003:
From the middle of November the trading of rice in Arakan State will not be
carried out freely like earlier, as per an order by the President of
Township Peace and Development Council (TPDC).
The order stipulates that village headmen would not engage rice trading
between villages and towns, and warned that breaches of the order will be
punished severely.
The ban has led to a dramatic decline of rice prices. Last year, a hundred
Tinn (3,000 kilogram) of rice, priced at 200,000 kyats but this year it is
priced only at 100,000 kyats.
The Arakan State authority instructed the Arakan State Major Business
Association to buy all the rice produced with 120,000 for a hundred Tinn
(3,000 kilogram), according to a farmer who was quoting the president of the
Association.
However, there has not been any offer of purchase from the Association.
Further, the set price is too low to make any profit for the farmers.
Arakanese farmers had expected a better rice market when the junta abolished
the state rice monopoly last year. However, with the new restriction the
farmers’ hope is in vain, said a farmer from the town of Ponar Gwan, 16
miles north of Sittwe.
''I think the junta tried to get the rice price down, so the farmer would
want to get the government to get involved again in the rice trade,'' he
said.
Since only the Major Business Person Association are allowed to engage in
rice trading, those who want participate in trading had no option but to
become a member of the Association. #
____________________________________________
Forced labour for construction Ngapali Sea beach tourism complex
16 December 2003:
Large number of valuable timber trees were being felled for the construction
of tourism complex, in Ngapali sea beach of Sandoway in Arakan state, by the
military headquarters of western command of Burma and locals were being used
as unpaid forced labour, a report said.
It is learnt that the military personnel were also building permanent
quarters inside the reserve forest, at Khamong village of Talaing daung
village track under the Ann Township, to extract valuable woods from these
reserve forest.
The villagers were being used for forced labour for various works like
construction of houses, locating of specific trees and logging them without
any payments.
One victim said, not only do the villagers have to supply their physical
labour free of cost but also have to provide buffaloes.
" We are being forced by the military personnel,” said a villager of
Khamong. The villagers not only have to work without any payments but they
even have to manage food and water on their own.
Force labourer for logging was being extracted from the following villages:
Kalaing daung, Khamong, Mhroy, Raymathin and two other Chin tribal villagers
Hang Royk and Pathagrow under the Ann township.
The SPDC and the military junta are in a hurry to build complexes to attract
foreign tourists at Ngapali seaside. They are using country’s natural
resources, valuable timber and force labourer, to execute this.
It is should be mentioned that at Ann township price of a ton of wood is
Kyat 1,50,000, 4,00,000 in Sittwe and 2,00,000 in Sandoway, a Timber
merchant told the reporter.#
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Army demolishes village for making Recreation Park
16th December 2003:
Army has demolished 100 houses from Kya Mothouk village nearby the
headquarter of the Light Infantry Battalion (LIB) 20, Sittwe Township,
on 29 November to construct Nadarwan Garden Park for the recreation of
the soldiers, said a headman from the village.
Most houses were situated in the eastern side of Sittwe-Kyauk Tan motor
road.
It is also reported that along with the village settlement paddy fields,
gardens and forests are belonging to Kya Mothouk villagers were taken over
by the army without the villagers being given any compensation.
The homeless and landless villagers are now pitching on a virgin land
situated near their abandoned village.
U Hla Soe Aung, former member of township council’s house was also
demolished, even though he has served for State Peace and Development
Council for many years.
The Kya Mothouk village had been along the Sittwe-Kyuak Ten motor road for
the past 100 years before being destroyed by the army. #
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AHOM: The Forgotten Burmese
Surajit Khaund
16 December 2003
Positioned at the midst of political controversy, they remain untouched by
Indo-Burma relations and have no interest in politics. Their main aim is to
keep intact their relations with the Assamese people. They are the Burmese
people of Ingthem village in Assam in northeast India.
These Burmese families' forefathers came to Assam in the early 19 century
with the Burmese army whose mission was to defeat the Ahom Kingdom. Since
then these Burmese people have lived in Assam and India's other northeastern
states. The Burmese people of the Ingthem village are completely assimilated
with Assamese culture. They cannot speak Burmese and claim to be Assamese.
In 1817, about 16,000 Burmese soldiers entered Assam through the Patkai
Hills, taking advantage of unrest in the Ahom Kingdom at that time. These
Burmese troops were defeated at Ghiladhari by the Ahoms. Taking revenge in
1819, approximately 20,000 Burmese soldiers under command of Ala Mingi
invaded Assam and defeated Ahom soldiers. After three months in Assam, Ala
Mingi returned to Burma but about 2000 of his soldiers remained. These
troops later scattered and settled in various places.
Recently, a Mizzima correspondent met about 15 Burmese families in the
Ingthem village descendant from these soldiers to learn about their living
conditions and their thoughts and opinions on Burma. .
Locally, these Burmese descendants are known Man. Though the Assamese people
initially had negative attitudes toward the Burmese for their invasion of
Assam, gradually, with the passage of time, this attitude faded and is no
longer held. In fact, the Man are very popular in their locality. Whenever
the Assamese people organize any function, the Burmese are generally given
first priority. This has now become a tradition in the Assamese society.
These families are completely ignorant about the present situation in Burma.
"Though our ancestors came from Burma, yet we are now Assamese. Even our
children are sent to Assamese medium schools just to keep our relations with
them intact", Prasanta Man said. The 35-year old Burmese man, who is also a
social activist in the locality, said that behaviourally, the Burmese people
are completely culturally assimilated with the Assamese. What is more
interesting is that they do not know their mother tongue they speak only
Assamese. "Assamese is our main language. Our forefathers knew Burmese, but
after they died, the younger generations were attracted to the Assamese
language instead of Burmese", he added. Asked whether he wanted to visit
Burma, Prasanta replied negatively saying he had no idea about Burma.
Mahesh Man, a middle-aged Burmese of the village said that he wanted to
unite the Burmese families in northeast India. According to him there are
about 200-300 Burmese families scattered in various parts of the region for
which steps should be initiated to unite them. These Burmese people are now
living in Meghalaya, Garo Hills, Manipur and Silchar." I have a mind to
visit Burma to see our people, but I do not have any idea of the route
connecting the countries," he said.
The Burmese people of the Ingthem village are relatively rich. They possess
enough agricultural land to support their families. Moreover, some of their
sons are working in the Indian Army and other government services.
Another important aspect of these Burmese families is that women are very
active. Eighty per cent are weavers. Their handloom products are in high
demand in the markets of the northeast India. "We prepare our clothes
ourselves. And our handloom products have dominated the various markets of
the country", Moina and Rashmi said. Asked about their relation with the
Assamese women they said, "We always claim to be Assamese so that the
relation would continue forever." #
__________________________________________________
A Total Replacement or Peaceful Negotiation (Burma)
Hre Mang, Strategic Group/FBC
16 December 2003
The recent political development on the process of democratization in Burma
has further frustrated many observers, activists, politicians and sections
of the general public. There are two major identifiable models of political
transition which opposition groups are advocating. First, a peaceful
negotiation with the junta and second, a total replacement of the junta.
The military leaders' open approach is through a peaceful political process
by which they consider themselves able to monitoring the political
transitional process in their favor. In order to keep the keys to political
transition in their hands, the regime leaders have been accumulating
political capital through a road map of peace-talk and cease-fire processes
with insurgency groups. The military leaders appear to be clearer in their
approach towards potential transition than the opposition. For among the
opposition, there are not only diverse political segments, there are also
diverse ideas and approaches toward the potential transition.
On September 6, the Ethnic Nationalities Solidarity and Cooperation
Committee (ENSCC), announced a new road map for Burma's political
transition, adding a few more political requirements for the deal to the
SPDC's road map. In their December 9 press release, the Free Burma Coalition
(FBC) cautiously welcomed the SPDC's plans for a National Convention. Inside
Burma, 16 ethnic insurgency groups are under cease-fire agreement with the
SPDC, while the KNU has engaged in cease-fire talks. These divergent
positions point to a steep challenge for the opposition to keep their
political approaches for potential transition transparent and mutually
supportive in their direction. One awkward outcome of this situation is that
the regime leaders could come out appearing as "peace lovers" in the eyes of
Asian neighboring countries and international sympathizers. At the same
time, serious i! deological chasms could appear - or may have already begun
to appear - between the opposition groups promoting a peaceful negotiation
approach and those holding to a total replacement model.
Some thinkers have suggested not only policy revision but also structural
and strategic reformation among groups in the opposition movement. Professor
Kambawza Win, in his article “Strategy of the Junta and How to Resist It,”
advised strategic change by dismantling the NCGUB to reform the political
structure of the hard-core opposition force. This is unlikely to take place,
because it is more likely that many of the opposition leaders would defend
the status quo as much as the regime leaders would. Should such reformation
and re-capitalization take place, the opposition force would definitely be
strengthened.
To revise the various stances in the current political standoff - as for
example, in the case of the ENSCC roa! d map but not necessarily as in the
cases of the cease-fire groups -&n bsp;the whole opposition movement would
have to moderate their baseline political positions to effect immediate
change. In light of a clinical political calculation, the regime’s political
point-scoring currently outweighs the force of the opposition. Therefore, if
the opposition is to continue to hold their long-standing political demand
for the total replacement of the military junta, political change is
unlikely to take place soon unless an unexpected miracle happens. Thus,
examining the political factors that contribute to the overall process of
Burma’s political development, the regime holds a stronger position than the
opposition, at least to defend its temporary status quo. This is despite,
theoretically and politically, the opposition holding more rational ground.
In an obvious political scenario, the majority of the opposition, without
significant political policy transformation over the years appears to be
holding the same old rod; a total! replacement model transition.
For a total replacement model of political transition to be appropriate, the
opposition has to have absolute control of the political process such that
the regime would have no other political option except to surrender or be
killed. For this to eventuate, four critical factors need to occur which
have not yet happened. First, there would need to be the internal collapse
of the regime. Second, there would need to be the military or political
victory of the opposition. Third there would need to be the inevitable
public uprising, and fourth, there would need to be international
humanitarian (and possibly military) intervention.
The least expected of these four factors for opposition groups, the internal
folding of the regime, seems to have all but disappeared since the death of
U Ne Win and the arrest of his son-in-law and grandsons for an alleged!
attempted coup d’etat. Sec ond, through constant internal political and
administrative purging, the military has been re-energizing its strength to
defend its political survival. Needless to say, the opposition has no
competitive force to amount change militarily. Politically, there is almost
no chance for the opposition to overthrow, arrest and try the military
leaders in the current political environment as a total replacement model
suggests. Third, having witnessed the brutality of the military regime, such
as during the “8888” massacres, further public uprising is unlikely to take
place inside Burma. In saying that, however, it could happen at any time. As
the regime has been reinventing its social capital building strategy through
the USDA movement and other means of social construction, there could be
serious public confrontation should there be another “8888"-like public
uprising inside Burma again. Fourth, there is no clue to signal a
possibility of an international military humanitarian ! intervention. Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi and other major opposition voices, having a non-violent
political resistance, are unlikely to ask the foreign military intervention.
Even if international military intervention was requested, the US and other
western democratic countries are unlikely to get militarily involve in
Burma’s domestic politics.
From the perspective of the military regime, such political transition will
be resisted until the last breath and bullet. Without guaranteed safe exit
for the military leaders, such that they would not be brought to trial,
there will be no peaceful political transition. Persecution for human rights
violations is a clear future political nightmare of the military leaders.
Although the reformers and some leaders within the military might be willing
to give up their political role in the country, to return to their
professional barracks and handover governance to the elected officials, no
military leader will be ready to welcome! such personal nightmare. This is
not an option for them. Therefore, i f the opposition leaders are ready to
include the military leaders in the political process, they should also make
sure of their stand on the exit guarantee for the regime leaders. Otherwise,
political attempt to take revenge on each other will result with no end to
this heinous and vicious circle.
Therefore, the regime leaders, although they are sure enough about their
future political challenge, have been playing not to have the political
process turn against them. They have been accumulating the political capital
by persuading the ethnic insurgency groups through peace deals and by the
so-called “Khin Nyunt political road map”. In summary then, with the 16
ethnic insurgency groups under cease fire agreement while the KNU is engaged
in the process of talks, and with the support of the neighboring Asian
countries for a peaceful negotiation, the regime government has reserved
enough political capital to defend itself! from facing a total replacement
model political transition. This understanding encourages the opposition to
strategically yet cautiously welcome the military leaders at the political
round table or to confront it with another course of actions.
On the other hand, to maintain a policy of a total replacement model of
political transition, the opposition must at least revise its strategy if it
cannot moderate its stance. Restructuring the opposition, as Professor
Kanbawza Win advised, is unlikely to take place. However, without
dismantling the current political mechanism, the opposition has to learn
from its past weaknesses and prepare for essential change - reinventing the
assertive ideas of the contemporary revolution. Without this, a gradual
evolutionary development Burma's road to democracy will take another decade
or so. #
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Burma News International (BNI) is a network of six Independent Burma Media
organizations: The Mizzima News, The Narinjara News, the Kaladan Press
Network, the Khonumthung News Group, the Network Media Group and the
Independent Mon News Agency. #