BURMA ALERT

- No. 02/03

The Burma Alert is published by the Associates to Develop Democratic Burma Inc, Canada, in cooperation with the Euro-Burma Office, Brussels.

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MYANMAR, HER NEIGHBOURS & VIETNAM.

Burmese democracy advocates normally use 'Burma' instead of Myanmar. However, in this issue of the Burma Alert, we are using 'Myanmar' to highlight conditions in Burma under military rule.

We also want ASEAN to realize that the situation in Myanmar, one of its member states, needs immediate attention.

Vietnam is included because many economists like to compare Myanmar with Vietnam. BA = Bangladesh, MY = Myanmar, LA = Laos, TH = Thailand, MA = Malaysia, and VN = Vietnam.

As a rule, statistical data about Myanmar is unreliable. However, in this issue, we are using data published by the US Central Intelligence Agency in 2002, not because it is more accurate but because it allows us to compare conditions in Myanmar with her neighbours and Vietnam in a consistent manner. Data from other sources are clearly identified.

Amongst the countries being compared, Myanmar is the largest, followed by Thailand, which has more arable land.

The Land (Area - '000 Square kilometres)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
134	678	236	514	330	330

Arable Land (Area - '000 Sq kilometres)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
80	95	9	170	16	56

In terms of population and population density, Myanmar is in the mid-range.

The People (Millions)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
133	42	6	62	23	81

Population Density (People/Sq Km)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
995	62	24	121	69	246

Population Growth Rate (%)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
1.59	0.56	2.47	0.88	1.91	1.43

But in terms of the economy, Myanmar lags behind her neighbours, even Laos.

GDP (US$ Billions)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
230	63	9	410	200	168

GDP Per Capita (US$)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
1750	1500	1630	6600	9000	2100

GDP Growth (%)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
5.6	2.3	5.0	1.4	0.3	4.7

Given Myanmar's size, population base, and low economic performance, some see the country as a potential gold mine to be exploited. But a closer look at Myanmar's infrastructure shows why this is not so. For example - there is insufficient electricity available for basic consumption, let alone to develop either commerce or industry.

Electricity Generation (Billion kWh)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
13.5	4.8	1.0	94.3	63.1	25.8

Electricity Per Capita (kWh/person)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
102	114	167	1521	2743	318

There are no roads to transport goods.

Paved Roads (Thousand Kilometres)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
19.1	3.4	3.4	63.0	48.7	23.4

Road Coverage (Kilometres/Sq Km)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
0.14	0.005	0.014	0.12	0.15	0.07

The same scarcity applies to water and air transport. Rail transport is similar in most countries except Laos which has none, and Bangladesh which has a good rail system.

Waterways (Thousand Kilometres)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
8.0	12.8	4.6	4.0	7.3	17.7

Waterways Coverage (Km/Sq Km)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
0.06	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.05

Ports

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
4	9	0	7	18	9

Paved Airports

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
15	8	9	59	34	17

The infrastructure problem becomes more acute when modern communications and technology are taken into account.

Telephones (Thousands)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
500	250	25	5600	4600	2600

Mobile Phones (Thousands)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
283	8.5	4.9	3100	5000	730

All Phones Per 1,000 persons

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
6	6	5	140	417	41

Internet Service Providers

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
10	1	1	15	7	5

Internet access in Myanmar is restricted.

Internet Users ('000 persons)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
30	0.5	6	2300	4100	160

Coverage (Users % of population)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
0.02	0.001	0.1	3.7	17.8	0.2

Conditions become worse when the social sector is taken into account. According to the WHO's World Health Report 2000, Myanmar's Health Service Performance for 1997 ranked 190 out of 191 in the world. Sierra Leone was last. This might be due to the fact that the SPDC is not allocating resources for health.

WHO HSP Ranking for 1997

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
88	190	165	47	49	160

Health Expenditure as % of GDP 1998

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
1.7	0.2	1.2	1.9	1.4	0.8

Health Expenditure 1998 (US$ Millions)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
3910	126	108	7790	2800	1344

Health Expenditure/Person 1998 (US$)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
29	3	18	126	122	17

One effect of this neglect is that HIV-AIDS has become a major problem -

HIV-AIDS Population ('000 persons)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
13	530	1	755	49	100

Other health indicators in Myanmar also do not look good.

Life Expectancy (Years)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
61	55	54	69	71	70

Infant Mortality (Out of 1000 live births)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
68	72	91	30	20	29

Looking to education to see if the problems Myanmar face can be resolved in the future with better education, the outlook becomes even bleaker.

Educ Expenditure as % of GDP 1997

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
2.2	1.2	2.1	4.8	4.9	3.0

Educ Expenditure 1997 (US$ Millions)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
5060	756	189	20 b	9800	5040

Educ Expenditure/Person 1997 (US$)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
38	18	31	317	426	62

Burma in the past won an UNESCO award for literacy, but Myanmar today is behind.

Literacy 15 years+ (%)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
56	30	57	94	84	94

ASEAN leaders do not want to face the reality of Myanmar. They hope that by ignoring the problem, it will go away. The data presented show that the problems will not go away but will become worse.

The problems will overflow into the region and affect ASEAN prospects for an economic recovery. Hiding behind the principle of 'non-interference' will not work. Waiting for Myanmar's military leaders to find a solution is also futile.

Of all the nations surveyed, Myanmar (excepting Thailand) has had the longest time to solve its internal problems. Even the current ruling military junta has had 14 1/2 years. Colonialism cannot be blamed for Myanmar's current problems.

Independence (Year)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
1949	1948	1954	n/a	1963	1954

Regime Change (Year)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
1971	1962	1975	1918	1963	1975

Part of the problem is the SPDC's obsession with strengthening the military at the expense of all other sectors. Its aim is to have a 500,000 strong military.

Armed Forced - UNDP 2000 ('000 men)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
137	344	29	300	96	484

There is no real justification for Myanmar to have a larger army than her neighbours.

Land Borders (Kilometres)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
4246	5876	5083	4863	2669	4639

Coastline (Kilometres)

BA	MY	LA	TH	MA	VN
580	1930	0	3219	4675	3444

Myanmar is a member of ASEAN. Is it planning to go to war with its fellow ASEAN neighbours? Or is Myanmar afraid of an invasion from China, India or Bangladesh? In reality, even a large army would not be able to repel such invasions.

The best defense strategy is for Myanmar to undertake a major shift in national priorities and develop the country.

To make this happen, ASEAN needs to adopt a policy of actively promoting democratic change in Myanmar. Left to itself, Myanmar will drag ASEAN and the region down.

End