[burmanet2-l] Burma Related News - Dec 26, 2002.

["TIN KYI" <tinkyi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

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BURMA RELATED NEWS - December  26, 2002.
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HEADLINES
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Reuters - U.S. Confirms Military Rapes in Myanmar - Post
AP - Report: Thai army changes role of elite, U.S.-supported anti-drugs
AP - Myanmar worker gets death sentence for murder
WP - U.S. Verifies Reports of Mass Rapes in Burma
Irrawaddy Online - Economic and Social Chaos of the State
Bkk Post - Elite drug fighting unit loses its job
XInhuanet - Chinese youth volunteers to work in Myanmar
Asian Tribune - Aided by China, Burma bolsters Coco Island force
Asian Tribune - China helps Myanmar bolster Coco Island facilities
Asian Tribune - The Changing Perceptions of Myanmar.

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U.S. Confirms Military Rapes in Myanmar - Post
Thu Dec 26, 3:17 AM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Military officials from Myanmar, formerly known as
Burma, raped ethnic minority women and girls on a systematic basis and the
State Department has confirmed it, according to a report in Thursday's
Washington Post.

Following reports by human rights groups in Thailand in June of 625 rapes by
Myanmar army troops in Shan State, the State Department sent an investigator
to the Thailand-Myanmar border in August, the newspaper said.

According to the investigator, who talked to refugees in Thailand, "We were
able to locate many victims and record chilling new stories of rape and
other atrocities in just three days."

"All of the victims had been gang-raped by Burmese soldiers within the past
five years, including a 13-year-old girl who had been raped two months
earlier," The Post reported.

"The international community cannot stand by and allow these heinous crimes
by the Tatmadaw (the Burmese military) to continue with impunity. We should
continue to pressure the regime to end this violence and punish the
perpetrators," the State Department report concluded, according to the
newspaper.

The Myanmar government has denounced reports of mass rapes by the military
as a fabrication.
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Report: Thai army changes role of elite, U.S.-supported anti-drugs

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) _ A U.S.-trained elite unit of the Thai army will no
longer be taking aggressive action to stop the narcotics deluge from Myanmar
for fear of worsening relations between the neighboring countries, a
newspaper reported Thursday.

To dispel Myanmar's suspicions and because of budget problems, the army has
decided to relieve Task Force 399 of its drug-suppression duties, the
Bangkok Post quoted Defense Minister Thammarak Isarangkura na Ayudhaya as
saying Wednesday.

The task force, which includes special warfare troops, infantrymen and
border patrol police, was set up in early 2001 and deployed along the
northern Thailand border with Myanmar, also known as Burma. U.S. Special
Forces assisted in training the elite unit.

An army spokesman confirmed that the anti-drug unit would be redeployed but
declined to say whether relations with Myanmar were involved in the
decision.

``With the help of training from the U.S., the task force achieved
significant success in drugs suppression, but since other agencies
responsible for drugs suppression also exist, the task force should be used
for intelligence work, which is vital to anti-drugs operations,'' Col.
Somkuan Saengpataranet told The Associated Press.

Since Task Force 399 was thrown into the war on drugs, Thailand has netted
major gains including seizures of millions of speed pills and the killings
of a number of suspected traffickers from Myanmar.

In May, Myanmar accused Thailand of sending the task force into its
territory on pretext of carrying out drug suppression. Bangkok denied the
accusation, saying the Thai army was conducting an exercise along the
border. But shortly thereafter then-Defense Minister Gen. Chavalit
Yongchaiyudh ordered the troops to pull back from the border region and
abruptly ended the exercise.

The Thai government has tried to mend fences with Myanmar despite periodic
border conflicts, but some in the Thai military believe in a more aggressive
policy, arguing that vast quantities of drugs are being smuggled into the
country from its neighbor.
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Myanmar worker gets death sentence for murder

MAE SOT, Thailand (AP) _ A court in northern Thailand has sentenced to death
a Myanmar immigrant convicted of killing the American expatriate owner of a
wildlife sanctuary and four other people, a judge said Thursday.

Maung Htwe, also known as A Htwe, was convicted Wednesday of murdering
William Deters, proprietor of the Highland Farm and Wildlife Refuge, three
of his Thai employees _ two men and a woman _ and the woman's 3-year-old
daughter.

The killings took place on May 10 at the 14-hectare (35-acre) farm located
43 kilometers (27 miles) south of Mae Sot, a major trading town on
Thailand's border with Myanmar.

Maung Htwe, 19 when the killing took place, was a former employee at the
farm. He was arrested a day after the murders, to which he confessed. He
allegedly killed Deters, 63, and the other victims when they caught him
trying to steal guns kept on the property.

The death sentence was pronounced at the provincial court in Mae Sot by
judges Kriangsak Phansophan and Kriangkai Watchra.

Kriangsak said Thursday that Maung Htwe had been convicted and sentenced on
the basis of his confession, made to police investigators and during his
trial.

He said the evidence also supported a finding of guilt, and that the death
sentence was imposed because Maung Htwe deliberately carried out the
``brutal'' killings.

Maung Htwe has 60 days to appeal his sentence, he said.

In July, three other workers from Myanmar were each sentenced 8 years, 1
month imprisonment for receiving stolen property, the half-dozen guns that
were stolen.

Police said Maung Htwe decided to steal the guns after meeting a small-time
firearms dealer. The farm is located in an area where security is unstable
because of guerrillas and refugees who cross over from Myanmar, also known
as Burma.
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U.S. Verifies Reports of Mass Rapes in Burma
By Glenn Kessler
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, December 26, 2002; Page A31

A State Department investigation has corroborated reports earlier this year
that Burmese military officials have systematically raped ethnic minority
women and girls, according to a recently declassified copy of the
investigation report.

The Burmese government has denounced as a fabrication reports of mass rapes
by the military. In June, the Thailand-based Shan Human Rights Foundation
and the Shan Women's Action Network detailed rapes involving at least 625
girls and women by Burmese army troops in Shan state, the largest of the
seven ethnic minority states in Burma, also known as Myanmar.

The report by the Thailand-based groups concluded that the Burmese military,
as part of its campaign to bring ethnic areas under its control, officially
condones rape as a "weapon of war" against civilians. At the time, the State
Department issued a statement saying it was appalled by the report and urged
an investigation by the Burmese government, a step the regime initially
resisted.

Washington then sent a State Department investigator to the Burma border in
August to make its own assessment. "We were able to locate many victims and
record chilling new stories of rape and other atrocities in just three
days," the investigator reported. All of the victims had been gang-raped by
Burmese soldiers within the past five years, including a 13-year-old girl
who had been raped two months earlier.

"The older women sobbed violently as they recalled horrific incidents of
their own rapes as well as brutal rapes, torture and execution of family
members," the State Department report said. "Most of these women had just
recently arrived in Thailand and were thin, lethargic, despondent and had no
belongings or hope for the future."

The investigator, to try to assess the credibility of the original report by
the Thailand-based organizations, also met with one woman whose case was
documented in the report. The woman, who had been gang-raped when she was
seven months pregnant, "told us her story in generally the same terms as
those recorded in the report."

The State Department probe has helped spur the U.S. government to seek an
international investigation of the rape charges, a State Department official
said. The State Department investigation "collaborates that the rapes have
been going on and likely on a widespread basis," the official said.

"The international community cannot stand by and allow these heinous crimes
by the Tatmadaw [the Burmese military] to continue with impunity," the
department report concluded. "We should continue to pressure the regime to
end this violence and punish the perpetrators."

Last month, Assistant Secretary of State James A. Kelly blasted the regime's
handling of the rape allegations, including an effort to claim that a field
trip into the region by the International Committee of the Red Cross
represented an investigation -- which the Red Cross denies.

"For a regime spokesman to deny categorically all charges of rape without
any investigation does more than strain credulity," Kelly said. The approach
by the government "devalues the representations of the [regime] to the point
that even tentative concrete steps -- such as the eventual, reluctant,
acknowledgement by the government that rapes had indeed been committed by
soldiers -- are submerged in the outrage over the indefensible."

Human rights groups allege that the military regime has forced village
elders in Shan state to sign petitions that the rapes did not occur.

In November, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, the United Nations special rapporteur on
human rights in Burma, reported to the U.N. General Assembly that the regime
had given him "detailed briefings" on its investigations into the rape
charges. He said he sought to explain that probes undertaken by the military
"lacked the independence required to be convincing and credible" and that an
international probe, either under U.N. control or with U.N. technical
assistance, was required to address the charges.

"We remain skeptical that any proper investigation into this issue can take
place inside Burma while the military regime remains in power," said Mo Lao
of the Shan Women's Action Network, which co-wrote the original rape report.
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Irrawaddy Online
Economic and Social Chaos of the State
By Danu Maung

December 26, 2002-The Burmese military regime has been in power for the past
14 years. If we add the Socialist dictatorial regime of Gen Ne Win, the
total number of years under authoritarian rule is nearly half-a-century.
People of Burma have grown under it, lived by it and are dying under it. If
we look back and assess the end result, nothing comes out of it and the
future of any government, whether it be democratic or authoritarian, is
quite gloomy.
This is similar to the waning days of the Soviet Union. The Soviet regime,
which lasted roughly 70 years, had spent a substantial amount of its
resources and wealth on military build up and on wasteful projects such as
the space program after World War Two. It had also built up infrastructure.
It was a closed society: trade with the international community hardly
existed and wars were waged in numerous republics within the system. The
government had subsidized energy, transportation, housing etc., and
financing was done by printing more money to sustain the economy. There are
other innumerable instances of mismanagement of the Soviet economy that led
to the downfall of the regime in 1991.

Burma has come to resemble the former Soviet regime, and we are presently
witnessing the same economic and social chaos. The Burmese junta continues
to build up its military, despite agreeing to peace with 17 ethnic armed
groups. Needless infrastructure projects have been launched one after
another, while people in the streets are saying: "Who needs these roads and
dams? You can't eat them or buy food for us."
One businessman said: "In fact, in other countries, infrastructure and
construction projects come only after the economy is booming. If these are
built first, before the market economy is growing, you get the "hollowed
out" status, or a Thingyan shell syndrome (A powerful sound or action not
backed by substance)."

Indeed, millions of dollars were spent on such projects. But is it solely
for the benefit of the people, as the regime has stated in its propaganda
articles? No, it is for the Agriculture Minister and people in his
department who gain billions of kyat in kickbacks from such schemes.
Millions of dollars in commission were paid to high officials by
Caterpillar, Komatsu and other heavy equipment suppliers before sales
contracts were signed. Hundreds of thousands of barrels of diesel fuel,
imported with hard-earned dollars from abroad, are pilfered by Energy
Ministry officials, engineers and bulldozer drivers all the way down to
earth diggers.
But in inaccessible regions such as border areas, it is well know that army
commanders exploit villagers by forcing them to build infrastructure
projects. The same is true in the construction of bridges and roads by the
Construction Ministry. This writer has personally witnessed an engineer's
wife trying to buy prime real estate in Rangoon's top notch suburb of Golden
Valley, in cash. The government has created such unnecessary projects simply
to line their pockets.
Burma receives one of the highest annual rainfalls in the world. And the
countryside could witness a deluge of floods, if and when Mother Nature
strikes. A military regime, to an extent, can rule the population with an
iron fist but they cannot control the weather. If rainfall exceeds the norm
in the monsoon season, these dams will become death traps. In August 2002 a
large numbers of residents were killed and their possessions lost after such
dams burst during heavy rains.

While the entire nation is in the dark when it comes to electricity, the
government, meanwhile, is colluding with multinational companies in selling
natural gas to Thailand, putting over US $700 million in its coffers.

At the same time, the populace is suffering from the highest inflation rate
in Asia. Food prices are up over an estimated 30 percent a year, but figures
are useless when a poor family from Hlaingtharyar, a Rangoon suburb, is
struggling to make ends meet. It is estimated that a family needs a minimum
of 50,000 kyat (US $50) a month to sustain their health and well being. It
is perplexing to think how a government worker with a salary of 2,000 kyat
per month can cope with hyperinflation.

Social disorder has also descended on Burma. Many young beautiful college
girls are entering prostitution by working in restaurants and karoake bars.
A large number of these establishments have sprung up in Rangoon, Mandalay,
Taunggyi and other cities to let rich desperate people exploit poor
desperate people. Girls can be arranged for the night at less than 10,000
kyat (US $10). No wonder that the international community is concerned with
the AIDS epidemic in Burma. Doctors in the largest hospital in Rangoon, the
Yangon General Hospital, have said that hundreds of cases are being
diagnosed each month. The cases, however, are officially reported as
tuberculosis, endocrine disease, malaria and other types of illness.

Crime has recently risen in Rangoon and Mandalay. Criminal activity is
indicative of lawlessness and disorder in an otherwise pious Buddhist
society. Due to the hyper-inflation and small pool of available work in the
labor market, people have also resorted to the illegal two-figure and
three-figure lotteries known as "Chai". Large dividends are gained by the
bookies from small inputs of money. Roadside vendors, teachers, students,
housewives, farmers, businessmen and high army officials-including former
SPDC member Win Myint-are involved in this form of gambling from a few
hundred kyat on into the millions.

Meanwhile, legitimate business interests are being hobbled by bribery,
corruption and bureaucratic red tape. The Trade Ministry and the Trade
Policy Council have tried their best to implement schemes that would milk
businessmen involved in import-export businesses. Trading agencies,
industrialists and merchants have had their hands tied by such unreasonable
rules and regulations drawn up under Trade Minister Lt-Gen Pyae Sone and Gen
Maung Aye.

With the pushing of such agendas, it is no wonder that the country is now
faced with a severe currency crisis due to lack of exports. But as far the
regime's cronies are concerned, no problems exist so long as they continue
to be awarded projects-whether they be private agriculture undertakings,
resorts or road works in Rangoon, Mandalay, or anywhere else.

It seems from the regime's perspective that the nation's economic and social
problems can be solved by pampering white elephants in their elaborately
decorated stables at Min Dharma Hill, a sacred place in Rangoon. This
practice of owning white elephants for the prosperity of an empire is not
new. Indian maharajas, Thai monarchs, Cambodian princes and Burmese kings
did it centuries ago. But this is the 21st century, and everyone knows that
a country's economic problems cannot be solved by rearing white elephants.
Gen Khin Nyunt, who is an expert in presiding over ceremonies of no
substance, has assigned himself zookeeper in order to further pamper the
already overfed white elephants.

The ruling generals' excesses cannot be resolved overnight, if and when
democracy returns to Burma. Problems that were kept under a lid may arise as
people demand that their voices are heard. Therefore, we are faced with a
vulnerable democracy for some time to come. It will be necessary for all
parties concerned to call for restraint and understanding to resolve a
myriad of crises that will come one after another. The recent death of Gen
Ne Win means that power struggles within the ruling elite may come to the
surface, and hopefully this will equate to regime change in Burma.

Danu Maung is a writer based in Rangoon. He contributed this article for The
Irrawaddy.
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Bangkok Post - Thursday 26 December 2002
Elite drug fighting unit loses its job
Taken off suppression role to placate Burma
Wassana Nanuam

The army's Task Force 399 has been relieved of its drug suppression role
because Burma appears to regard it with suspicion, Defence Minister
Thammarak Isarangkura na Ayudhaya said yesterday.

The task force, a combined unit of four companies of special warfare
soldiers, infantrymen and border patrol police, was set up in 2001 when Gen
Surayud Chulanont was army chief, specifically to fight drugs.

The United States has promised to give $2.3 million to assist its drug
suppression work, but has not yet handed over the amount.

Burma accused Thailand of sending Task Force 399 across the border to attack
positions of the Rangoon-allied ethnic Wa army during a Thai military
exercise in May this year. Bangkok believes the Wa to be the largest
producer in Burma of methamphetamine pills that have posed a major problem
for Thailand.

To dispel Burma's suspicion and because of budget problems, the army has
decided to relieve Task Force 399 of its drug suppression duty, Gen
Thammarak said.

Army chief Gen Somdhat Attanand stressed the task force has not been
disbanded. It is being used for intelligence work, which is vital to
anti-drug operations.

Drug suppression operations are being carried out by other units, Gen
Somdhat added.

Gen Thammarak reiterated that Thailand has no policy to allow any of its
armed units to launch attacks inside the territory of any of its neighbours.

The defence minister also said some 30 drug plants based along the Burmese
border are ``just makeshift huts''.

``We are concentrating on preventing chemicals which are drug precursors
from being sent into Burma,'' he said.

Gen Thammarak also plans to visit China and seek its cooperation in drug
suppression.

``To solve the drug problem we need to talk to both Burma and China.
Chemicals used as precursors for drug production in Burma come from China
and India,'' he said.

The defence minister said the country's war on drugs has been effective
judging from a decline in the number of addicts by about 800,000 people.

``But we found that provincial governors and provincial police chiefs were
always at odds over drug suppression work. I will have to arrange for them
to get together to forge better understanding,'' Gen Thammarak said.
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Chinese youth volunteers to work in Myanmar
Xinhuanet 2002-12-26 14:27:07

YANGON, Dec. 26 (Xinhuanet) -- Myanmar Education Minister and
Secretary-General of the Union Solidarity Development Association (USDA) U
Than Aung said Chinese youth volunteers to Myanmar will add to the
substantive contents in the exchange of youths between the two countries.

He said this to a six-member Chinese youth volunteers group Wednesday.

The volunteers, at an average age of 26, are selected from 1,050 enrolled in
Shenzhen.

They will stay in Yangon or be sent to the country's second largest city of
Mandalay to engage in various voluntary services, including teaching Chinese
language and computers technology.
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Asian Tribune
Date : 2002-12-26
Aided by China, Burma bolsters Coco Island force


London, Dec. 25: In a development likely to cause concern to New Delhi,
Burma is expanding, with Chinese support, its naval facilities on Great Coco
Island, the site of a major signals intelligence facility situated near the
strategically important Andaman and Nicobar islands.

According to a report in the latest issue of the Jane's Defence Weekly, the
project was launched with a foundation stone-laying ceremony, held on
November 4, 2002, but revealed very recently.

It involves the construction of a jetty measuring 85m by 70m at a budgeted
cost of $11 million for completion by next year end. There is currently just
a small pier to serve ships calling on the island. Those present at the
ceremony included Burma' transport minister Maj. Gen. Myint Swe and a number
of unidentified Chinese officials.
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Asian Tribune
Date : 2002-12-26
China helps Myanmar bolster Coco Island facilities

Rediff.com, Dec. 25: In a development likely to cause concern to New Delhi,
Myanmar is expanding, with Chinese support, its naval facilities in Great
Coco Island.

According to a report in the latest issue of the Jane's Defence Weekly, the
project was launched on November 4, 2002.

It involves the construction of a jetty measuring 85m by 70m at a cost of 70
million kiyat (11 million dollars) for completion by next yearend. There is
currently just a small pier to serve ships calling on the island.

Those present at the unpublicised ceremony included Myanmar's Transport
Minister Major General Myint Swe and a number of unidentified Chinese
officials.

According to the weekly, Beijing is to provide "funding and technical
assistance" for the construction project, but it is unclear whether that
involves a grant or a loan on favourable terms.

China built an intelligence facility on Great Coco Island in the early
1990s. It has yet to be conclusively shown whether this is controlled by
Beijing or Yangon, or shared by both.

Preparatory work in anticipation of the arrival of construction material has
already started, it said, but there are no indications that new buildings
are planned.

The Andaman and Nicobar chain extends to the top of the strategically
important Malacca Strait and is the farthest eastern point of the Indian
territory. New Delhi last year established its first joint services command,
the Joint Andaman and Nicobar Strategic Defence Command, in the Union
territory capital of Port Blair.
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Asian Tribune
Date : 2002-12-26
The Changing Perceptions of Myanmar.
By Dr Robert Taylor

The war against terror dominated the global political agenda in 2002 and
Myanmar's strategic significance is a topic of much curiosity. In this
contributed article Dr Robert Taylor, a London-based Myanmar affairs
consultant, explores the changing perceptions of this country.

THE strategic significance of Myanmar in the war against terrorism demands
the United States and its allies take a fresh, realistic, new look at their
policies toward this major Southeast Asian nation. For most of the post Cold
War period policy toward Myanmar has been predicated on fallacious
assumptions based on uninformed analogous reasoning.

Myanmar is not South Africa and its politics are much more complex than a
simplified battle of the forces of democracy versus the forces of
authoritarianism. Western economic sanctions, applied against one of the
poorest peoples, and governments of Asia have failed to improve the
situation of the country during the past decade and a half, thus
demonstrating the mistaken basis of previous policies.

Now, there is a real possibility to adjust the approach of the United States
and the European Union toward Myanmar in a manner, which can prove to be
constructive. Following the most recent visit to Yangon of UN special envoy
Tan Sri Razali Ismail, it became clear that the government of Myanmar is to
recommence the difficult task of agreeing a new constitution for a country
which has been ruptured by civil war for almost the entirety of its 54 years
of independence.

The fact that the SPDC as the transitional authority has been able to enter
into ceasefire agreements with 17 of its major armed opponents as well as a
number of smaller groups bodes well for this process. The fact that several
long-standing insurgent groups have been unwilling yet to agree a ceasefire
points to possible problems in the future should the constitution making
process not succeed.

Another optimistic development was the release from house arrest of Daw Aung
San Suu Kyi, the General Secretary of the National League for Democracy
(NLD) last May as well as the steady and increasingly large release of
political prisoners over the past few months. Many have expressed
frustration that the process of political reconciliation has not gone
faster.

But the fact that Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is able to tour the country and has
been able to open more offices of the NLD across the country demonstrates
the Government's commitment to gradual democratization. Being in power, the
government has to balance a number of competing interests. This has
generated a greater caution toward change than that its opponents find
reasonable. Drawing up a constitution for a stable Myanmar will be far from
simple. Clearly there will be a need to share authority and this will not
come easily.

Each of the many groups involved feels it must have a say about what a
democratic constitution will contain. Many will demand a veto to ensure they
get what they believe in a fair distribution of power and resources. The
views of the numerous ex-guerrilla armies and political parties are rarely
compatible beyond vague generalities.

Moreover, democratic give and take has not been part of the political
process in the country for a long time. Why should the West care and what
can it do to help? While clearly the United States and its allies have few
economic interests in Myanmar at this time, and this greatly reduces their
political leverage there, the West has significant interests in the outcome.

The deepening involvement of China in Myanmar poses the possibility of
shifting the strategic center of all of Southeast Asia. Furthermore, success
in the war on terrorism will involve the involvement of Myanmar. Achieving a
democratic and prosperous Myanmar is obviously in everyone's interests but
how that can be achieved from where we are now must be carefully considered.
Myanmar is clearly becoming involved in a major way in the war against
terror.

The Myanmar military has vast experience in dealing with the threat of
terrorism. Myanmar also has its own Al-Qaeda offshoots to contend with.
Various Islamicist groups have become involved with separatist forces along
the country's borders, first with Bangladesh, and more recently with
Thailand.

The porous borders of Myanmar makes the country an easy target for terrorist
and insurgent groups bent on creating disorder for their own purposes, often
having little or nothing to do with Myanmar. Most of the country's small
Muslim minority has stayed far away from extremist politics but a few have
attempted to exploit ethnic differences.

The US and Myanmar, whatever their real and imagined differences in the
past, now perceive a common threat. Drugs are another issue in which the two
countries have a common interest.

The Myanmar government often feels aggrieved that their efforts to eradicate
the cultivation of opium poppy by the northern hill tribes have been
denigrated by the West. They also point to the reports of the United Nations
Drug Control Programme that there is no evidence of the involvement of the
government in the drug trade. Whatever the involvement of certain ceasefire
groups in the drug trade, the government's anti-drug program has had some
marked success in recent years. But to make that sustainable, they need help
in the form of not merely humanitarian aid and assistance, but investment in
alternative crops and industries to create employment for some of the
poorest people in Myanmar.

Similarly, Myanmar has a key role in the struggle to control the spread of
HIV/AIDS. The governments own efforts are being supplemented by important
work by a small number of NGOs but their health and education programs are
miniscule given challenges which a country on the cross roads of Asia faces.

As the disease continues to grow in giant neighbors, Myanmar requires more
help now in facing this crisis. To play a role in ensuring that Myanmar's
political future is one, which will maintain it as an ally in the West's war
against terrorism, drugs, and HIV/AIDS, policy toward the country has to
become more realistic than has been the case for too long. Nowhere in the
world today is it be possible to create a utopian democracy, and certainly
not in a country which has been denied access to intellectual as well as the
economic markets of the remainder of the world for so long.

Compromises will have to be found between the imperatives of democracy, the
imperatives of development, and the imperatives of order. Myanmar is not
unique in this regard and policy needs to reflect this obvious fact. When
and if those compromises are found, the struggle to create political order
in Myanmar will be far from over.

Whatever constitutional government succeeds the current transitional
government, it will need to turn to the army to maintain order unless the
institutions of civil government are greatly enhanced. There is a massive
job of capacity building to be undertaken if democracy in Myanmar does not
one day again become synonymous with chaos.

Dr Robert Taylor, a London-based Myanmar affairs consultant, After serving
as Professor of Politics and Professor-Director of the School of Oriental
and African Studies at the University of London, his final academic post was
Vice-Chancellor of the University of Buckingham in the UK.

He has authored "The State of Burma" (1987) translated from U Thein Pe Myint
's Wartime Traveller (1985) and edited Burma: Political Economy under the
Military (2001) and Ideas of Freedom in Asia and Africa (2002). He is
currently working on a new history of SE Asia with colleagues who
collaborated in producing Search of Southeast Asia (1987) and is writing a
book on Myanmar's domestic and international politics since 1988.
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