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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BURMA RELATED NEWS - February - 20, 2001. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HEADLINE -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AP - Rescue workers fail to find missing crash victims in
Myanmar
AP - 14 Myanmar Crash Victims Missing
AFP - UN urges Asian leaders to
tackle arms trade
Xinhua - Search for Myanmar
Helicopter Crash Victims Underway
Xinhua - Myanmar to Privatize More
State Enterprises
Xinhua - WHO's Regional Health Secretaries Meet in Myanmar Xinhua - Nepali FM Ends
Visit to Myanmar
The Daily Star - Myanmar currency hits all-time
low
Bkk Post - Local panels get
green light to find peace
Kyodo - Thai-Myanmar tension
should be resolved: junta leader
The Nation - Burma not
aggressive, Nyunt says
Asiaweek - A Boom Town
Beckons
Asia Times - Political infighting weakens Myanmar
WIRE: 02/20/2001 7:21 am ET
Rescue workers fail to find
missing crash victims in Myanmar
YANGON, Myanmar (AP) Rescue workers failed on Tuesday to find 14
people missing in a helicopter crash that killed the No. 4 general in Myanmar's
ruling military junta the worst tragedy to befall the junta in its 12 years in
power.
Twenty-nine people were aboard the helicopter when it went
down Monday in a river 100 miles southeast of Yangon, the capital. In addition
to the 14 still missing, 13 were known to have survived and two, army chief of
staff Lt. Gen. Tin Oo and Maj. Aung Phone Naing, were confirmed dead.
The search effort is difficult because the river is
flowing so rapidly, a government official said on condition of anonymity.
Official newspapers reported that the Russian-made Mi-17
helicopter crashed into the Salween River in bad weather Monday near Pa-an in
Karen State. The helicopter was carrying Tin Oo to inspect a new bridge.
Tin Oo, 67, was an opponent of rebel groups fighting for
independence in Myanmar and had survived an assassination attempt four years
ago. There was no indication that the helicopter that crashed had been attacked
or sabotaged.
Tin Oo's obituary in official newspapers said he had
"suddenly died while serving the country." He was the fourth most powerful man
on the ruling council, a 21-member group of army officers who took power in
Myanmar in 1988 after crushing a democracy uprising.
Official media said that of the 14 missing people, nine
were government officials, two were pilots and the rest were crew members.
Government officials said the missing included one other
member of the dominant ruling military council, Maj. Gen. Sit Maung, who is the
commander of the southeastern forces, and Brig. Gen. Lun Maung, a minister in
the prime minister's office.
Ba Thein, president of the Karen National Union rebels,
told The Associated Press that it believed the accident did not involve
sabotage.
Tin Oo was a veteran of campaigns against ethnic and
communist insurgents and had often threatened in public to "annihilate"
opponents of the regime.
He had survived at least one assassination attempt in
April 1997, when a parcel bomb exploded in his house, killing one of his
daughters. Tin Oo was in the house but escaped unhurt.
The government blamed dissidents, but rebel groups said
the bombing was the result of a power struggle in the junta.
On Christmas Day in 1996, two bombs tore through a Yangon
pagoda that Tin Oo had visited hours earlier. Five people were killed, but it
wasn't clear if Tin Oo was the target.
Tin Oo rarely spoke about politics and was not regarded as
a key government policy maker.
His death comes as the military regimes moves to improve
relations with Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
It is also seeking to resolve a border dispute with its
neighbor, Thailand.
Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt was quoted in official newspapers
Tuesday as saying that Myanmar wanted a border solution based on "mutual
understanding, respect and magnanimity."
Earlier this month, Myanmar and Thai troops clashed when
fighting between Myanmar and ethnic Shan rebels spilled into Thailand. The
fighting drove relations to their lowest point in several years.
Tuesday February 20, 8:53 PM
14 Myanmar Crash Victims
Missing
By AYE AYE WIN, Associated Press Writer YANGON, Myanmar (AP) - Rescue workers failed on Tuesday to find 14
people missing in a helicopter crash that killed the No. 4 general in Myanmar's
ruling military junta - the worst tragedy to befall the junta in its 12 years in
power.
Twenty-nine people were aboard the
helicopter when it went down Monday in a river 100 miles southeast of Yangon,
the capital. In addition to the 14 still missing, 13 were known to have survived
and two, army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Tin Oo and Maj. Aung Phone Naing, were
confirmed dead.
The search effort is difficult because the
river is flowing so rapidly, a government official said on condition of
anonymity.
Official newspapers reported that the
Russian-made Mi-17 helicopter crashed into the Salween River in bad weather
Monday near Pa-an in Karen State. The helicopter was carrying Tin Oo to inspect
a new bridge.
Tin Oo, 67, was an opponent of rebel groups
fighting for independence in Myanmar and had survived an assassination attempt
four years ago. There was no indication that the helicopter that crashed had
been attacked or sabotaged.
Tin Oo's obituary in official newspapers
said he had ``suddenly died while serving the country.'' He was the fourth most
powerful man on the ruling council, a 21-member group of army officers who took
power in Myanmar in 1988 after crushing a democracy uprising.
Official media said that of the 14 missing
people, nine were government officials, two were pilots and the rest were crew
members.
Government officials said the missing
included one other member of the dominant ruling military council, Maj. Gen. Sit
Maung, who is the commander of the southeastern forces, and Brig. Gen. Lun
Maung, a minister in the prime minister's office.
Ba Thein, president of the Karen National
Union rebels, told The Associated Press that it believed the accident did not
involve sabotage.
Tin Oo was a veteran of campaigns against
ethnic and communist insurgents and had often threatened in public to
``annihilate'' opponents of the regime.
He had survived at least one assassination
attempt in April 1997, when a parcel bomb exploded in his house, killing one of
his daughters. Tin Oo was in the house but escaped unhurt.
The government blamed dissidents, but rebel
groups said the bombing was the result of a power struggle in the junta.
On Christmas Day in 1996, two bombs tore
through a Yangon pagoda that Tin Oo had visited hours earlier. Five people were
killed, but it wasn't clear if Tin Oo was the target.
Tin Oo rarely spoke about politics and was
not regarded as a key government policy maker.
His death comes as the military regimes
moves to improve relations with Myanmar pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
It is also seeking to resolve a border
dispute with its neighbor, Thailand.
Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt was quoted in official
newspapers Tuesday as saying that Myanmar wanted a border solution based on
``mutual understanding, respect and magnanimity.''
Earlier this month, Myanmar and Thai troops
clashed when fighting between Myanmar and ethnic Shan rebels spilled into
Thailand. The fighting drove relations to their lowest point in several
years.
Monday February 19, 3:27 PM
UN urges Asian leaders to
tackle arms trade
PHNOM PENH, Feb 19 (AFP) - The UN's top arms control envoy urged Asian
and Pacific leaders Monday to slash spending on weapons and tackle the booming
trade in small arms to help reduce poverty.
United Nations undersecretary-general for disarmament
affairs Jayantha Dhanapala said cutting weapons spending would go a long way
toward meeting the UN's millennium pledge to halve global poverty by
2015.
"Leadership in dealing with problems stemming from the
proliferation of small arms in the Asia-Pacific region must necessarily come
from the region itself," he told delegates at an international conference on
small arms proliferation in the Cambodian capital.
"It is vital for leaders in this region to view outside
efforts to address this problem as fully consistent with national sovereignty,
and not motivated simply to achieve expedient foreign policy
objectives."
He said with half the world's population living on less
than two dollars a day, arms purchases were limiting development
options.
Global military expenditure began rising again in 1997
after a dip at the end of the Cold War and now stand at about 800 billion
dollars a year, he said. Roughly 70 percent of arms deliveries have gone to
developing nations over the past decade, he added.
"Global arms transfer agreements with developing nations
increased from 16.8 billion dollars in 1998 to 20.6 billion in 1999," he
said.
"By comparison, some UN agencies estimate that it would
require an additional 70-80 billion dollars per year to provide primary
education, low-cost water, sanitation and public health facilities and
reproductive health, family planning and clinical services to all those in
need."
The two-day arms control conference is being attended by
academics, civil servents and a number of senior ministers from Asia, Europe and
North America.
It is to be followed Wednesday by a two-day ASEAN Regional
Forum (ARF) meeting on conventional arms and light weapons jointly organised by
the Canadian, Cambodian and Japanese governments.
The ARF, with includes the 10 members of the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and its dialogue partners, is the only
region-wide forum for discussing security issues.
Delegates at the conference which began Monday stressed
the significance of meeting in Cambodia, which is recovering from decades of
civil war which ended in 1998 with the collapse of the Khmer Rouge
insurgency.
They said Cambodia was believed to be a major source of
small arms fuelling the illicit regional trade in weapons being supplied to
insurgencies in Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Indonesia.
Cambodian Senior Minister Sok An, who delivered a speech
on behalf of Prime Minister Hun Sen, said Cambodia was doing its best to
decommission weapons in a responsible manner.
"Recognising the fact that Cambodia has surplusses of
small arms as a result of an extended period of war and conflict (we have) been
able to collect hundreds of thousands of small arms and light weapons in the
past several years and a large number of them have been completely destroyed,"
he said.
"These efforts also greatly contribute to the prevention
of small arms proliferation and trade in the region."
Search for
Myanmar Helicopter Crash Victims Underway
2001.02.20 23:00:16 YANGON, February 20 (Xinhuanet) -- A search operation for victims
from Monday's Myanmar helicopter crash, in which the country's fourth most
powerful leader Lieutenant-General Tin Oo was killed, is underway at the
crash site.
Along with Tin Oo, 67, Second Secretary of the ruling
Myanmar State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and Chief of Bureau
of Special Operations and Chief of Staff of the Army, an army officer of
major rank was also killed in the crash.
Of a total of 29 on board the military helicopter, 22
were government officials and seven were crew members. It has been
confirmed that 13 people have been rescued with 14 still
missing.
Officials said here Tuesday that there is little hope for
the missing 14 victims to survive. The 14 include two cabinet
ministers-- Brigadier-General Lun Maung, Minister at the Prime Minister's
Office, and Colonel Thein Nyunt, Minister of Development of Border Areas
-- and Chairman of the Mon SPDC and Southeasten Commander Major-General
Sit Maung.
The helicopter, which carried Tin Oo and entourage on
an inspection tour of a new bridge, was heading for Hpa-an in eastern
Kayin state from Mawlamyine in southern Mon state and crashed into the Thanlwin
River near Hpa-an.
While the government report said that the accident was due
to bad weather condition, sources close to the government believed
that the accident was resulted from mechanical failure.
Tin Oo became the second secretary of Myanmar's military
ruling body, the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC), in
September 1988 when the military took over the power of state, and his post was
retained when the SLORC was renamed as the SPDC in
November.
Tin Oo escaped twice from assassination attempts in the
1990s -- one in December 1996 when two bomb attacks were launched on a
sacred tooth relic housed in the capital's Kaba Aye Pagoda after his
visit, and the other in April 1997 when a parcel bomb attack was launched
on his Yangon residence, killing his daughter.
Meanwhile, the funeral procession of late Tin Oo will
take place on Friday in a grand military form.
Myanmar to Privatize
More State Enterprises
2001.02.20 12:08:13 YANGON, February 20 (Xinhuanet) -- Five more state-owned
enterprises, which include a land plot, a saw mill and three cinemas
respectively located in the country's Bago and Mawlamyine townships, will
be sold through competitive biddings, official newspaper The New Light of
Myanmar reported Tuesday.
These state enterprises are the first batch to be
privatized in this year.
Myanmar has been implementing a privatization plan for
its state-owned economic enterprises since January 1995, aimed at
systematically transferring them into effective business
organizations.
The plan, being implemented by the government-formed
Privatization Commission, is carried out by auctioning and leasing out the
enterprises or establishing joint-ventures with local and foreign
investors.
The first phase of the scheme covered 51 such
enterprises including processing and manufacturing factories,
livestock breeding farms and cinemas.
According to official statistics, 118 state enterprises in
1999 and 19 of such enterprises in 2000 were covered by the privatization
plan.
These enterprises include land plots, rice mills, saw
mills, cinemas, hotels, biscuit and garment factories and timber
shops.
It is reported that there is a total of 1,760 state
enterprises in Myanmar, mostly being industrial enterprises.
WHO's Regional
Health Secretaries Meet in Myanmar
2001.02.20 10:39:02 YANGON, February 20 (Xinhuanet) -- The Sixth Meeting of Health
Secretaries of the Countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) Southeast
Asian Region began here Monday.
The three-day meeting will serve as a forum for
exchanging views and experiences with respect to health and
health-related matters in countries of the region, said Tuesday's
official newspaper The New Light of Myanmar.
Speaking at the opening of the meeting, Myanmar Health
Minister Major-General Ket Sein urged countries in the region to act
accordingly to meet the changing conditions and challenges in political,
economic and social sectors all over the world over the past few
years.
He said that the WHO is always trying to improve and
intensify its efforts in fulfilling the health development needs of
member countries, stressing that promotion of health and social
development is vital for enhancing the quality of life.
He told the meeting that Myanmar, in accordance with its
social objective of uplifting the health standards of the entire people,
has accorded priority in allocation of government budget to the health
sector, adding that the country's ministry of health is one of the largest
recipients of budgetary funds.
He also disclosed that aimed at increasing equity,
efficiency and quality of health services, the Myanmar Health Ministry
has carried out health sector reform which encompasses policy,
organization, institutional development, human resources, health financing
and the private sector.
He described the meeting as a very useful one, saying that
such meetings have not only been able to address regional health problems
but also to formulate sound plans of actions and strategies to tackle the
issues of common concern.
He was convinced that inter-country cooperation can be
further strengthened to effectively reduce the burden of ill health in the
countries of the region.
Nepali FM Ends Visit to
Myanmar
2001.02.19 23:14:22 YANGON, February 19 (Xinhuanet) -- Nepali Foreign Minister Chakra
Prasad Bastola left here Monday after concluding his three-day official
visit to Myanmar.
During his visit, Bastola met with Chairman of the
Myanmar State Peace and Development Council Senior-General Than
Shwe.
He also met with his Myanmar counterpart U Win Aung and
the two ministers discussed maintenance of friendly relations between the
two countries and mutual cooperation.
At the invitation of U Win Aung, the Nepali foreign
minister arrived here last Tuesday and first attended as an observer
the two-day Third Trade and Economic Ministers' Meeting of the BIMST- EC
(Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand-Economic Cooperation)
before starting his official visit to Myanmar on Friday.
This is the first visit to Yangon of a high-ranking
official of Nepal in five years during which there were almost no economic and
trade activities between the two countries except maintenance of cultural
exchange.
The Daily Star -
February 20, 2001.
Myanmar currency hits
all-time low
AFP, Yangon
Myanmar's currency, the kyat, has plunged to an all-time
low on the free market, falling to 503 against the US dollar in a symptom of the
nation's economic decline.
The kyat's value on the black market, through which most business is carried out, compares to an official exchange rate of six to the greenback. The value of Foreign Exchange Certificates (FECs), a
special currency denominated in dollars, has also fallen.
The kyat's most recent slide started several weeks ago,
when it was worth about 450 to the dollar, against about 320 at the beginning of
this year before a substantial pay increase was awarded to government workers.
Meanwhile FECs are valued at slightly more than 400 to the
dollar. The kyat rate of FECs was once equal or even higher than that of the
dollar when its local usage was widespread.
The growing price disparity has been attributed to
over-printing of the special currency, which has meant that the amount in
circulation exceeds the number of dollars collected by the government.
The shortfall has already been accounted for in the local
economy. Some restaurants in Yangon are now charging 15 per cent more for meals
paid for in FECs instead of dollars.
"The government makes a profit of around 100 kyats on each
dollar given the present gap in rates," one analyst said.
The city is now awash in FECs, and as demand shrinks
people are eager to hedge their bets by offloading the currency by buying
dollars or gold. The price of gold in Myanmar has shot up as a result.
Australian Broadcasting Corporation - February 20,
2001.
Signs of progress in Asia's drug blackspots
A United Nations report on the drug trade says Afghanistan
and Burma remain countries of "major concern" in Asia, but their governments
have made some progress in clamping down on production.
The report by the International Narcotics Control Board,
says drug problems in South Asia have been mostly related to its proximity to
the two main regions illicitly producing opiates, namely West Asia, including
Afghanistan, and East Asia including Burma.
The INCB and the UN Drug Control Programme have praised
Afghanistan for its efforts to clamp down on opium poppy
cultivation.
But INCB president Hamid Ghodse, says the agency remains
concerned about Afghanistan, citing figures suggesting the existence of drug
stockpiles equivalent to 3-4 years of illicit exports.
The report says there are also encouraging signs on Burma,
with a decline in illicit opium production, although the country continues to be
the world's second largest source of heroin and opium.
Bangkok Post -
February 20, 2001.
Local panels get
green light to find peace
Premier not likely to visit Rangoon soon Post Reporters
Thailand expressed confidence the country's border
conflict with Burma can be resolved through talks between local-level
authorities.
A joint meeting of agencies responsible for national
security agreed efforts to settle the conflict should be handled by an existing
border committee made up of representatives from the two countries.
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said once the conflict
is resolved, bilateral relations between the two countries could be improved
through another round of high-level talks at a later stage.
"We need to undertake a policy that will not attract
suspicion from each other," said Mr Thaksin after chairing a crisis meeting
attended by senior members of the foreign and interior ministries, the armed
forces, the National Security Council and the National Intelligence
Agency.
Foreign Minister Surakiart Sathirathai said yesterday he
also remained optimistic the border dispute with Burma could be tackled through
negotiations at the local level.
Mr Surakiart acknowledged the complexity of the ongoing
row at the Burmese border would be difficult to settle in a single round of
talks and said continued discussions under the local mechanism would be
necessary.
"I still firmly believe that the problem can be settled
either through the township or regional border committees", he told reporters
after paying his respects at the statue of Prince Devavong Varopraharn, the
father of Thai diplomacy, on his first day in office.
The first round of border committee talks which took place
back-to-back on Thursday in Tachilek, on the Burmese side, and Mae Sai, in
Chiang Rai, ended in deadlock after each side accused the other of border
intrusion.
He said there was no need to visit Burma soon and a trip
to Rangoon and other member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
would be arranged only when better conditions permit.
While maintaining a policy of non-interference in domestic
issues, he said Thailand and Burma could also forge co-operation in several
areas such as tourism, culture and energy.
Peace, better living standards and stronger ties along the
border with neighbouring countries were what the government was trying to
achieve, he said.
Defence Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyudh also expressed
confidence the border tension would be contained.
Concerned authorities have taken every step to ensure the
standoff would not degenerate into violence, Gen Chavalit said after emerging
from yesterday's top-level meeting.
He said the situation in Chiang Rai has been left to the
local authorities to handle and ruled out any immediate high-level negotiations.
Any such dialogue would be supervised by the Third Region Army and the Chiang
Rai provincial governor.
If the tambon-level border committee was unable to handle
the problem, the regional joint Thai-Burmese border panel would step in to
assist in the talks.
Thai-Myanmar tension should
be resolved: junta leader
YANGON Feb. 20 Kyodo
- The recent tension between Myanmar and Thailand was caused by
''wedge-driving'' by a group of drug trafficking rebels and should be resolved
through an ''optimistic approach'' based on ''mutual understanding, respect and
magnanimity,'' a senior member of the Myanmar's military junta was quoted by
local newspapers on Tuesday as saying.
Gen. Khin Nyunt, No. 3 in the junta hierarchy and first
secretary of the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) made the
statement at the closing ceremony of a teachers reorientation course in
Phaunggyi, 60 kilometers north of Yangon, according to the papers.
''Myanmar always maintains friendly relations with
neighbors based on the principle of peaceful coexistence and also in accord with
ancestors' teaching that 'Let amity be eternal and enmity be ephemeral,''' the
general was quoted as saying.
''Myanmar has never encouraged any group to endanger other
countries from our territory, never kept them in our territory to use them to
serve our interest,'' he said.
''Some officials of the other country (Thailand) are
making one-sided accusations and talking on one-sided information. We believe
that this matter should be solved with optimistic approach based on mutual
understanding, respect and magnanimity as true good neighbors,'' he said.
Tension flared between the two countries after Myanmar
troops began operations on Feb. 8 to dislodge the drug-running ethnic minority
Shan rebel group, the Shan United Revolutionary Army (SURA), from the hilltops
on the border overlooking the Myanmar town of Tachilek, 560 km northeast of
Yangon.
The Shan ethnic minority inhabits in the eastern part of
the country bordering China, Laos and Thailand. The SURA is a splinter group of
former drug warlord Khun Sa's Mong Tai Army (MTA).
Myanmar troop operations spilled over to the Thai side, as
Yangon accused the Thai military of providing the rebels with heavy weapons.
Civilians were killed in both border towns -- Tachilek in
Myanmar and Mae Sai on the Thai side -- by shells, for which each side blamed
the other.
Bangkok media reported the statements of senior Thai
military officials to punish the intrusion.
Yangon newspapers published maps of SURA rebel camps on
the common border and also inside the Thai territory, while Myanmar officials
claimed there was no intention of encroachment on Thai territory, apart from
crushing the rebels.
The Nation, Associated
Press - February 20, 2001.
Burma not aggressive, Nyunt says RANGOON - Burma's military regime was not "aggressive" in
its foreign relations and wanted to resolve its border dispute with Thailand
peacefully, a top Burmese general was quoted as saying yesterday.
"The current [Burmese]-Thai border problem should be
solved with [an] optimistic approach based on mutual understanding, respect and
magnanimity as true good neighbours," Lt-General Khin Nyunt, fourth highest
official in the state hierarchy, was quoted as saying by all three official
Burmese newspapers yesterday.
Earlier this month Burmese and Thai troops clashed when
fighting between Burmese and rebel Shan State Army (SSA) forces spilt over into
Thailand's Chiang Rai province. At least five civilians were killed on both
sides of the border, driving relations to their lowest point in several years.
Border checkpoints in the region have been closed for more than a week.
Thailand launched a heavy artillery attack to drive out
Burmese forces that the army said intruded onto Chiang Rai's Ban Pang Noon hill
to attack the SSA. Burma, meanwhile, accused Thailand of aiding the Shan rebels.
Khin Nyunt said the SSA and "a misunderstanding by some
Thai authorities who had relied on false information from lower-level Thai
officials" had been to blame for the dispute.
"Although our government is a military government, we have
no aggressive attitude. We promote friendly relations with every country and
abide by international rules and regulations," Khin Nyunt said at a ceremony to
mark the end of a teacher-training course on Monday at Phaunggyi, 60 kilometres
north of Rangoon.
But in an apparent jab at Thailand for allegedly
supporting the Shan rebels, Khin Nyunt said Burma had never allowed another
group to endanger other countries from its territory or used such groups for its
own ends.
That claim would be contested by Thailand, which has
expressed growing frustration at the activities of another Burmese ethnic army,
the United Wa State Army, that produces illegal drugs in the border area
adjoining Thailand.
The drug trade is regarded as socially divisive and a
major cause of violent crime in Thailand. But the Wa army has reached a
cease-fire agreement with Burma and enjoys virtual autonomy in areas of Shan
State in eastern Burma.
Thai Third Army commander Lt-General Wattanachai
Chaimuanwong said yesterday tension on the northern border would be reduced if
Thai and Burmese officials could hold a high-level meeting, but Burma would have
to initiate this.
"We would lose face if we went up to them and asked for
one. We didn't do anything wrong. Besides, it's their turn to call a meeting,"
the commander said.
There was no indication, Wattanachai said, that the
Burmese government would reconvene the Regional Border Committee (RBC) set up to
settle border disputes between the two countries. But Thailand believed Burma
should be the one to call the meeting as it was Burma which "violated our
sovereignty and territorial integrity".
The RBC has not met for two years.
Wattanachai said Thai troops would stand firm on the
border, at least until there was an indication that the Burmese would pull back.
According to the Shan Herald Agency for News (Shan)
yesterday, ethnic Shan living in Thailand have been supplying the SSA.
"Thanks to the media's kind coverage of our Army's
struggle against drugs and the Burmese military, Shan exiles in Thailand have
been visiting us every day with food, clothing, medicine and even cash
donations," Lt-Colonel Kawnzuen, 39, commander of the SSA's Keng Tung front, was
quoted by the agency as saying.
The Keng Tung front is facing 11 battalions, two of which
are from the United Wa State Army, a pro-Burma rebel army, according to the
agency.
AsiaWeek -
FEBRUARY 23, 2001 VOL.27 NO.7 A Boom Town
Beckons
Business radars are on alert in the wake of political talks. But is investment wise? By ROGER MITTON The meeting was unusual enough, but the outcome even more so. On one side were two generals from Myanmar's military junta, and on the other were members of Yangon's leading chambers of commerce. The businessmen — local and foreign — had a common gripe: too much bureaucratic red tape getting in their way. Could the generals help them cut through it? Yes, came the answer. The next day, a trader in the fisheries industry received a call from his bank. He had complained to the generals about currency exchange problems that dogged his export business. The bankers asked him to drop by so they could devise a solution. An efficient response, in anyone's commercial language. Myanmar is back in business. With a moribund economy and
biting sanctions, the generals are bending over backwards to keep the vital
signs ticking over. Indeed, business interests may have helped spur the recent
talks between the junta and its determined nemesis, National League for
Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The dialogue may lead to nothing, but the
fact that it is even taking place has already warmed the international climate
toward pariah state Myanmar. The new U.S. administration has hinted that
economic sanctions imposed in 1997 due to political repression may be lifted.
The European Union is scrambling to establish meaningful ties after years of
avoiding eye contact. Is it the beginning of real change for Myanmar, or just a
cynical gambit by the military dictators?
Whatever the case, developments have foreign investors
rubbing their hands — and the generals licking their lips. "Economic stability
is the key to political stability," says respected Myanmar analyst-in-exile Aung
Naing Oo. "The junta sees sanctions as obstacles to economic development and
thus a threat to their future hold on power." Despite a shambolic economy born
of decades of mismanagement, Myanmar is often rated Southeast Asia's richest
nation in terms of natural resources. And now the time seems ripe for a
sustainable boom. "When foreign investors hear the talks {with Aung San Suu Kyi}
are going on, they feel a glimmer of hope," says Moe Kyaw, who heads a market
research company in Yangon. "They feel Myanmar may no longer be
ostracized."
If only it were that simple. Yes, out of self-interest,
the junta has sent unmistakable signals that it is preparing to come in from the
cold. And yes, the generals are increasingly eager to make life easy for
investors. But ethical dilemmas remain. Will increased engagement result in a
rapprochement between Suu Kyi and the generals, ending the 13-year military
dictatorship? Or will it serve to prop up the regime? Will investment make a
difference to the lives of ordinary Burmese, or will the junta cream the
benefits? Not least, will forced labor be used to build this new Myanmar? ASEAN
countries, plus China, India, South Korea and Japan, have already made up their
minds: business opportunities are too hot to ignore. For the rest of the world,
the writing on the balance sheet isn't hard to read. Says Bo Olson of the
nongovernment Sweden-Democratic Burma Friendship Association: "The West is just
dying to get in there."
But should it? That depends on whom you ask. Broadly
speaking, three schools of thought have emerged. One says that whatever
political game the junta is now playing, more business activity will inevitably
enrich the population. Even if the generals and their cronies rake off most of
the profits, the man in the street will still benefit. Big business is a leading
proponent of this line. U.S. oil company Unocal arrived in Myanmar in 1993 to
help build the Yadana offshore gas pipeline to Thailand, now among Myanmar's
most profitable legitimate operations. The Washington sanctions barred U.S.
companies from setting up new business deals, but Unocal, as an established
outfit, was allowed to remain. It retains a small foreign workforce of managers
and technicians on the pipeline with its French partner Total — and points to
the jobs and community facilities it provides for local maintenance workers.
"Real change and improvement will come when there are dozens of Yadana-size
projects," says Unocal spokesman Barry Lane. Critics say forced labor was used
to build Yadana. The companies deny this.
A second school of thought is more cautious. It has few
problems with investment, but does want to see evidence of political progress.
Olson believes that foreign investment on the whole is a positive thing:
"Naturally the generals get most out of it, but ordinary people can get jobs and
can sell their produce if the economy is rolling." Yangon-based lawyer and
foreign business consultant Alec Christie thinks investment can only improve
standards of living for all. "If you ask me what are the areas where there are
problems, it would be infrastructure," Christie says. More money would improve
telecommunications, electricity supply and roads — especially outside the
capital. "If there is investment and international aid, things would be better,"
he says.
Compromise, however, remains a dirty word for many
Burmese. Kanbawza Win, a dissident and visiting professor at the University of
Winnipeg, Canada, believes that investment merely strengthens the dictatorship.
"The system put in place by the junta aims to prevent the growth of the middle
class — which has the potential to lead the country to democracy," he says.
"Only the top brass and the cronies get richer while the mass of the people
remain poor." The rallying cry of Western labor groups, too, remains "sanctions
on, business off." Says Phillip Fishman, the assistant Asia director for the
American Federation of Labor-Congress of Industrial Organizations: "What would
most help the citizens of Burma would be the restoration of civilian, democratic
governance and the rule of law, and an end to widespread
corruption."
That's a big wish list, but one that helped convince
mostly U.S. companies to abandon Myanmar in 1997. Pepsico Inc., for instance,
which had an estimated 80% share of the soft-drink market, sold its
joint-venture stake with a local company in 1996. The next year it closed shop
completely by canceling supplies of Pepsi syrup. The company said its decision
was "based on our assessment of the spirit of current U.S. government policy."
In fact, its involvement in Myanmar had resulted in boycotts by U.S. students —
the company's main domestic market — which soon translated into shareholder
concern. Other U.S. firms quick to toe the domestic-opinion line included Levi
Strauss, Amoco, Apple and Eastman Kodak.
Did their withdrawal make a difference? Possibly. But for
almost every outfit that left, one arrived. Tiger Beer (Singapore), Rothmans
(U.K., tobacco), Japanese conglomerates Sumitomo and Mitsui, Clough Engineering
(Australia) and Ivanhoe Mines (Canada) are well established. Oil and gas players
Premier (U.K.), Petronas (Malaysia) and Nippon (Japan) jostle with Unocal and
Total. Singapore companies, the biggest investors, have hotels, garments,
defense supplies, banking and travel services. A French-Myanmar fisheries joint
venture began operations in November. The bottom line, says market researcher
Moe Kyaw, is that if you know how to do business, you can do it in Myanmar. So
long as
you are not too fussy about the company you
keep.
Political
infighting weakens Myanmar
STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update Feb 20, 2001 Summary Lieutenant-General Tin Oo, Secretary 2 of Myanmar's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and chief of staff of the army, died in a helicopter crash on February 19. Tin Oo's death is likely to accelerate the factional struggle within the SPDC, as the more liberal factions see an opportunity to acquire some of the conservatives' waning power. The political infighting threatens not only Yangon's stability, but also threatens already strained relations with Myanmar's neighbor Thailand. AnalysisAnalysis Lieutenant General Tin Oo, Secretary 2 in Myanmar's State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) and chief of staff of the army, died in a helicopter crash on February 19. According to official state media, the crash resulted from inclement weather. Earlier reports from Myanmar and Thailand, however, have cited the cause of the crash as engine failure or an attack by ethnic rebels. Tin Oo, No 4 in the SPDC hierarchy, was responsible for military operations and economic affairs. He advocated a strong response to Myanmar's numerous ethnic and political opposition groups and reportedly survived three assassination attempts in the last five years. His death will likely stir an internal power struggle within the SPDC between hard-line leaders and a competing pragmatic faction. The internal political strife threatens not only Yangon's stability, but will further strain relations with Myanmar's neighbor Thailand. For several years, the SPDC leadership has been embroiled in an internal power struggle over who will replace the aging chairman, Senior General Than Shwe. At the center of the battle are SPDC Vice Chairman and army Commander in Chief General Maung Aye and SPDC Secretary 1 and Chief of the Directorate of Defense Services Intelligence Khin Nyunt, the respective No 2 and No 3 within the ruling council. Maung Aye holds the support of the armed forces, and as vice chairman stands to inherit the leadership role from Than Shwe. The more pragmatic Khin Nyunt, who has less support from the military, instead has been instrumental in arranging peace deals with various ethnic rebel factions and promotes a more moderate and economically open Yangon. Tin Oo, a hard-line element in the SPDC, was rumored to be Maung Aye's choice for SPDC vice chairman, supplanting Khin Nyunt in the ruling junta. Sources in Myanmar say that Khin Nyunt has long wanted Tin Oo dead, suggesting previous assassination attempts were part of the internal power struggle. With Tin Oo gone, both Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt will move to fill the vacuum with their own supporters. While the competition heats up inside Yangon, relations with neighboring Thailand may suffer. Bangkok and Yangon share a contentious relationship, due largely to Myanmar's ethnic armies and drug cartels along the border. During the term of former Thai prime minister Chuan Leekpai, Bangkok pulled back from contact with Yangon, sending relations into an even deeper spiral. Thailand's new Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, elected February 9, has pledged to reopen the stalled contact with Yangon. On the same weekend that Thaksin was elected, however, clashes between the Myanmar army and Thai army broke out around the Thai border town of Mae Sai in Chiang Rai province. The fighting, a spillover from Myanmar's annual spring offensive against ethnic Shan rebels, left at least 19 dead on both sides of the border, according to The Associated Press. While the fighting subsided after three days, a war of words between the neighbors continued to intensify. Thailand accused Myanmar of violating its territory and shelling civilians in an artillery barrage. Thaksin, who had earlier suggested his first official foreign visit would be to Yangon, criticized Myanmar for allowing some ethnic minority groups on the border to produce drugs. Thaksin added that if diplomatic means proved insufficient to solve the long-standing border issue, "We will have to deal with it in our own way, and this is an assertive policy," according to the Times of India. For its part, Yangon repeated allegations that the Thai military supports the ethnic Shan rebels, giving them sanctuary and even supplying them with landmines and other explosives. Official Myanmar media said Thailand was suspected of reinvigorating a 50-year-old concept of "Greater Thai Policy" which called for the annexation of parts of Laos, Myanmar and China. With increasing numbers of troops on both sides of the border, the situation remains tense. On February 19, Thai cabinet members, including the foreign minister and defense minister, emphasized they no longer had plans for any official visits to Yangon. For its part, Yangon played up fears of a Thai military coup, releasing an editorial in the official New Light of Myanmar that politicians and military officers in Thailand were stirring border problems and arming ethnic rebels in order to undermine Thaksin's intentions of rebuilding ties with Myanmar. Tin Oo's death further complicates efforts for the two sides to reconcile. While state media blamed weather for the crash, radio reports in Thailand and Myanmar suggest ethnic Shan rebels shot down his helicopter - the very group Thailand has been accused of supporting. Acceleration of infighting within the SPDC ranks will cause settling the border rift with Thailand to take the back seat. Worse, the political wrangling in Yangon could lead to two different sets of negotiations with Thailand, likely leading to more chaos. |