--------------------------------------------------------------
Friday June 13, 9:25 PM
Myanmar's Suu Kyi may be
released
TOKYO (Reuters) - Myanmar's opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi, who has been detained by the ruling military for the past two weeks,
may be released later this month, an official in Myanmar's Foreign Ministry has
told Japanese media.
Thaung Tun, director general of the ministry's
political department, was quoted by Kyodo news agency on Friday as saying that
Suu Kyi could be released if the situation in Myanmar "returns to normal".
No further details were available from the interview, which was
conducted in Phnom Penh ahead of a series of meetings of Asia-Pacific nations.
Myanmar's military government took Suu Kyi into what it called
"protective" custody during a trip to the north on May 30 after a clash between
her supporters and government forces.
Suu Kyi and about two dozen senior
members of her National League for Democracy have been held at locations in or
outside the Myanmar capital, sources told Reuters in Yangon. Some of the
locations are undisclosed.
United Nations envoy Razali Ismail, who met
Suu Kyi at the junta's headquarters in Yangon on Tuesday, said she was in good
health and good spirits.
The government said on Tuesday they would
release her as soon as possible, but gave no time frame. She has spent more than
half of the last 14 years in detention at her Yangon home.
U.S.
Secretary of State Colin Powell said on Thursday he would seek action from Asian
countries on the issue during a trip to the region next week for an annual
meeting of the Association of South East Asian Nations Regional Forum.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Friday June 13, 8:06 AM
US Powell Wants Asean To Sway
Myanmar To Free Suu Kyi
HONG KONG (AP)--U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said he
would ask Southeast Asian leaders next week to pressure Myanmar's military
rulers over the detention of Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.
"The
junta that oppresses democracy in Burma (Myanmar) must find that its actions
will not be allowed to stand," Powell wrote in a commentary published Thursday
in the Asian Wall Street Journal, which is published by Dow Jones & Co.
(DJ), also the publisher of this and other newswires.
Possible measures,
he wrote, included limiting commerce with Myanmar "which enriches the junta's
generals."
Suu Kyi was taken into custody and moved to a secret location
after May 30 clashes between her supporters and military backers in northern
Myanmar. At least four people were killed. After Suu Kyi's detention, the junta
launched a crackdown on her pro-democracy party.
The U.N. and many world
leaders have urged the government to release her immediately, and the U.S.
Senate on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved economic penalties against Myanmar,
also known as Burma.
"The administration agrees with members of the U.S.
Congress...that the time has come to turn up the pressure on the SPDC," Powell
wrote, referring to Myanmar's ruling State Peace and Development Council.
Powell said he would turn to leaders attending next week's Association
of Southeast Asian Nations in Cambodia to do the same, "despite their
traditional reticence to confront a member and neighbor of their association."
He suggested a ban on remittances to Myanmar so the government could not
benefit from foreign exchange and freezing assets of the ruling junta.
The junta seized power in 1988. Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy
won the 1990 general elections, but was barred from taking power. Suu Kyi was
under house arrest from 1989 to 1995 and again for 19 months before her release
in May 2002. She won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.
Powell said the
process to restore democracy in the country clearly was failing, referring to
the junta as the "thugs who run the Burmese government."
"It is time for
the United States to reassess its policy toward a military dictatorship that has
repeatedly attacked democracy and jailed its heroes," he said.
The
attack on Suu Kyi signaled the junta "had finally and definitively rejected the
efforts of the outside world to bring Burma back into the international
community."
Asean consists of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos,
Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Friday June 13, 4:30 PM
Myanmar Renovates Aging Intl
Airport In Yangon - Report
YANGON (AP)--Myanmar authorities are renovating the
country's aging international airport in Yangon to handle an increasing number
of passengers and replace outdated equipment, a newspaper reported Friday.
"The 46-year-old airport needs to be modernized," So Lwin, an executive
engineer from the Transportation Department's airport division, was quoted as
saying by The Myanmar Times.
The report couldn't be independently
confirmed.
A new terminal will be built at the southern end of the
airport to accommodate 900 passengers, the report said.
The two-story
building will have separate floors for arriving and departing passengers as well
as air bridges, automatic conveyor belts for baggage, a VIP lounge and an
expanded car park with space for an additional 250 cars.
The airport's
2,469-meter runway will be extended to allow larger aircraft such as Boeing 747s
to land, the newspaper said.
A private Myanmar company, Asia World Co.,
and a Singaporean architectural consulting company, CPG, are carrying out the
project, which began last September and is to be completed late next year, the
report said.
The new airport terminal is scheduled to open by early
2005, the report said.
The cost of the renovation wasn't disclosed.
Separately, a new airport with a 2,591-meter runway opened in the
central Myanmar town of Magway last Friday. The airport, which can handle 250
passengers, was built at a cost of US$10.8 billion and replaces a 51-year-old
facility.
Myanmar's tourism industry is weak because of the country's
political situation. Most Western governments and human rights groups discourage
travel to Myanmar because of the military junta's refusal to allow democracy.
Since May 30, pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi has been held under
"preventive detention," despite calls for her release from the United Nations
and a variety of countries.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Friday June 13, 8:49 AM
China, Malaysia Warn Against
Pressuring Myanmar Govt
YANGON (AP)--Myanmar's military government ignored
international criticism of its detention of Aung San Suu Kyi, blaming her
opposition party for the nation's political deadlock.
The United Nations
and many world leaders have urged the release the Nobel Peace Prize laureate.
But China and Malaysia, two of the military regime's closest allies, cautioned
Thursday against pressuring the junta.
Suu Kyi was whisked away nearly
two weeks ago after a clash between her supporters and a pro-government mob in
northern Myanmar. At least four people were killed.
The U.S. Senate on
Wednesday overwhelmingly approved economic penalties against Myanmar. The same
day President Bush joined Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in calling for
"an immediate substantive political dialogue" in the country, also known as
Burma.
The junta said it "fully appreciates the suggestion" from the two
leaders and shares their view that a democratic and prosperous Myanmar is
important to the stability of Southeast Asia.
"That's why the
government's two main goals have been the transition to a market economy, and
the transition to multiparty democracy," the government said in a statement.
It made no reference to Suu Kyi's detention since May 30 and the
breakdown in its 2-1/2-year-old U.N.-sponsored reconciliation dialogue with the
Nobel laureate.
Instead, the junta criticized Suu Kyi's party for its
1995 withdrawal from a national convention to draft a constitution that
democracy activists labeled a sham because most delegates were hand-picked by
the military.
"The government is fully committed to the national
reconciliation process and to work together with all the political forces in its
effort for national reconciliation and democratization," the junta said.
Suu Kyi has spent many of the years since 1989 under house arrest for
her nonviolent struggle for democracy. She won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991.
U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said the process to restore
democracy in the country clearly was failing, referring to the junta as the
"thugs who run the Burmese government."
"It is time for the United
States to reassess its policy toward a military dictatorship that has repeatedly
attacked democracy and jailed its heroes," Powell said in a commentary in
Thursday's Wall Street Journal.
China, Myanmar's most important ally,
reiterated its long-standing policy of nonintervention.
"We believe this
is something between the Myanmar government and the opposition and an internal
affair of Myanmar," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Kong Quan said at a
regularly scheduled news briefing in Beijing.
Malaysian Prime Minister
Mahathir Mohamad, meanwhile, warned that putting too much international pressure
on Myanmar's military junta could be "unproductive."
The military seized
power in 1988 and has defied international demands to hand power to Suu Kyi's
National League for Democracy party, which won general elections in 1990.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Myanmar Ignores Criticism of Detention
Thu
Jun 12,12:55 PM ET
By AYE AYE
WIN, Associated Press Writer
YANGON, Myanmar
(AP) - Myanmar's military government
on Thursday ignored international criticism of its detention of Aung San Suu
Kyi, blaming her opposition party for the nation's political deadlock.
The United Nations and many world leaders have urged the release the
Nobel Peace Prize laureate. But China and Malaysia, two of the military regime's
closest allies, cautioned against pressuring the junta.
Suu Kyi was
whisked away nearly two weeks ago after a clash between her supporters and a
pro-government mob in northern Myanmar. At least four people were killed.
The U.S. Senate on Wednesday overwhelmingly approved economic penalties
against Myanmar. The same day President Bush joined Thai Prime Minister Thaksin
Shinawatra in calling for "an immediate substantive political dialogue" in the
country, also known as Burma.
The junta said it "fully appreciates the
suggestion" from the two leaders and shares their view that a democratic and
prosperous Myanmar is important to the stability of Southeast Asia.
"That's why the government's two main goals have been the transition to
a market economy, and the transition to multiparty democracy," the government
said in a statement.
It made no reference to Suu Kyi's detention since
May 30 and the breakdown in its 2 1/2 year-old U.N.-sponsored reconciliation
dialogue with the Nobel laureate.
Instead, the junta criticized Suu
Kyi's party for its 1995 withdrawal from a national convention to draft a
constitution that democracy activists labeled a sham because most delegates were
hand-picked by the military.
"The government is fully committed to the
national reconciliation process and to work together with all the political
forces in its effort for national reconciliation and democratization," the junta
said.
Suu Kyi has spent many of the years since 1989 under house arrest
for her nonviolent struggle for democracy. She won the Nobel Peace Prize in
1991.
Secretary of State Colin Powell said the process to restore
democracy in the country clearly was failing, referring to the junta as the
"thugs who run the Burmese government."
"It is time for the United
States to reassess its policy toward a military dictatorship that has repeatedly
attacked democracy and jailed its heroes," Powell said in an editorial in
Thursday's Wall Street Journal.
China, Myanmar's most important ally,
reiterated its long-standing policy of nonintervention.
"We believe this
is something between the Myanmar government and the opposition and an internal
affair of Myanmar," Chinese foreign ministry (news - web sites) spokesman Kong
Quan said at a regularly scheduled news briefing in Beijing.
Malaysian
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, meanwhile, warned that putting too much
international pressure on Myanmar's military junta could be "unproductive."
The military seized power in 1988 and has defied international demands
to hand power to Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party, which won
general elections in 1990.
--------------------------------------------------------------
BBC News - Friday, 13 June,
2003.
Burma 'has no grudge' for Suu Kyi
A
member of Burma's military government has said the junta "bears no grudge"
towards the detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.
Deputy Foreign
Minister Khin Maung Win, quoted by the semi-official Myanmar Times, said the
authorities would do everything in their power to achieve reconciliation with
her.
The opposition leader has been held in what Burma's rulers describe
as protective custody, since clashes between her followers and government
supporters on 30 May.
Despite widespread calls for her release, both
Malaysia and China warned on Friday against putting too much pressure on the
Burmese authorities.
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, one of
the Burmese Government's staunchest allies, said it would not be "very
constructive if we keep pressing people".
Chinese Foreign Ministry
spokesman Kong Quan said the people of Burma were capable of dealing with their
own problems.
But other countries have been quick to criticise Aung San
Suu Kyi's detention.
Khin Maung Win urged "the international community
not to further complicate the prevailing situation in the country," was quoted
as saying by the Myanmar Times.
"The government bears no grudge or
animosity towards Daw Aung San Suu Kyi," he was reported to have said.
US
criticism
On Thursday, Washington condemned the Burmese Government's
treatment of the opposition leader.
US Secretary of State Colin Powell
labelled the country's rulers as "thugs".
"It is time for the United
States to reassess its policy toward a military dictatorship that has repeatedly
attacked democracy and jailed its heroes," Mr Powell said in a commentary in the
Wall Street Journal.
He said he would use next week's annual meeting of
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) in Cambodia to ask Burma's
neighbours to take action over Aung San Suu Kyi's detention.
Traditionally, Asean has been reluctant to interfere in the internal
affairs of members states, but Mr Powell said he was determined that this would
change.
He also backed a move by the US Congress to impose trade and
other sanctions against Rangoon.
The slow-moving national reconciliation
process between Burma's military rulers and Aung San Suu Kyi's National League
for Democracy was started by United Nations envoy Razali Ismail in October 2000.
But talks came to a standstill after Aung San Suu Kyi's arrest.
Since then she has been allowed little outside contact, except for a
brief meeting with Mr Razali last week.
Despite recent events, Burma
insists it is still fully committed to the reconciliation process.
--------------------------------------------------------------
New
Straits Times - 2003-06-13
PM: Not constructive to impose sanctions
on Myanmar
PUTRAJAYA, June 13: Datuk Seri Dr
Mahathir Mohamad said today that it would not be constructive to merely apply
pressure or impose sanctions on Myanmar over the detention of Opposition leader
Aung San Suu Kyi.
"It's not very constructive if we keep on pressing
people. Whenever they comply with something, there is no reward, (but) if they
do something else then more pressure is applied," the Prime Minister
said.
Dr Mahathir was speaking at the launch of a book on Umno's founding
father Dato Onn Ja'afar.
He was asked if constructive engagement with the
military junta was still the best option in dealing with the
matter.
Although Asean adopts the nonintervention principle in a member
country's internal affairs policy, the detention of Suu Kyi is expected to be
discussed during the upcoming Asean ministerial meeting in Cambodia next
week.
It is widely expected then that the United States, which is a party
to the Asean Regional Forum to be held in conjunction with the Ministerial
Meeting, would pressure Asean into taking a more stringent approach against
Myanmar.
In his most recent statement on the matter, US Secretary of
State Colin Powell had indicated that he would seek action from fellow Asean
members to pressure Myanmar into releasing the Nobel Peace Prize
laureate.
Myanmar's military rulers took Suu Kyi into "protective
custody" during a trip to the north of the country on May 30 after a violent
riot involving her supporters.
Powell dismissed the explanation from
Myanmar's rulers of the incident in which Suu Kyi was taken back into custody,
saying investigations by US embassy staff showed members of the military
government had directed and staged the riot.
The US Senate meanwhile has
voted 97-1 yesterday to approve a Bill to ban all imports from the Southeast
Asian nation in response to Suu Kyi's detention.
The Senate Bill would
ban imports of anything mined, made, grown or assembled in Myanmar. It would
freeze Myanmar Government assets held in the United States, bar former and
present leaders from travelling to the United States, and require the Treasury
Department to oppose World Bank or International Monetary Fund loans.
Suu
Kyi and about two dozen senior members of her National League for Democracy have
been held at locations in or outside the Myanmar capital.
On Tuesday
Myanmar's ruling junta had assured visiting United Nations special envoy Tan Sri
Razali Ismail that Suu Kyi would be released as soon as possible.
Razali,
who managed to meet the Opposition leader in custody, said she was in good
health and was not injured in the riots.
"I have been given clear
assur-ances by both Secretary One and Maung Aye that they will lift the
protective custody on her as soon as possible," Razali told the media after his
meeting with Suu Kyi.
Secretary One is military intelligence chief Khin
Nyunt and Maung Aye is the army commander.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Bomb found on Thai-Burmese border
13/06/2003
19:18:23 | ABC Radio Australia News
Thailand's
military has destroyed a bomb planted in the northern town of Mae Sai, which
borders Burma.
The bomb was hidden in a cardboard box near a power
station.
Mae Sai lies opposite the Burmese town of Tachilek, where four
people were killed last month in a series of bomb blasts the Burmese government
has blamed on the rebel Shan State Army.
The ethnic rebel group denied
involvement.
--------------------------------------------------------------
The Washington File
12
June 2003
Trafficking Report Says Burma's Military Uses Forced
Labor
(Also cites sexual exploitation) (740)
The State
Department designated Burma as a Tier 3 government in its third annual
Trafficking in Persons Report due to the Burmese government's lack of
significant efforts to meet congressionally set standards for combating human
trafficking.
The report, released June 11, faults Burma's military rulers
for continued extensive use of internal forced labor.
"The military is
directly involved in forced labor trafficking," the report says.
The
report acknowledges that the military junta ruling Burma has taken steps to
combat trafficking in persons for sexual exploitation, but it describes Burma's
record as "inadequate."
"The Government of Burma does not fully comply
with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and is not making
significant efforts to do so," the report says.
The State Department is
required to report to Congress annually whether foreign governments fully meet
the minimum standards set for the elimination of trafficking as detailed in the
U.S. Trafficking Victims Protection Act of October 2000. Governments that are
not making significant efforts to meet the standards are placed on the Tier 3
list.
The full text of the report is available at:
http://www.state.gov/g/tip/rls/tiprpt/2003/
Following is an excerpt on
Burma from the report released by the Department of State June 11:
(begin
excerpt)
Burma (Tier 3)
Burma is a source country for persons
trafficked for labor and sexual exploitation. Although the government has taken
steps to combat trafficking for sexual exploitation, significant use of internal
forced labor continues, especially by the military. Burmese are trafficked
mainly to Thailand, but also to China, Taiwan, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Japan for
sexual exploitation, as well as domestic and factory work. Internally,
trafficking of women and girls for prostitution occurs from villages to urban
centers and other areas, such as trucking crossroads, fishing villages, border
towns, and mining and military camps.
The Government of Burma does not
fully comply with the minimum standards for the elimination of trafficking and
is not making significant efforts to do so. The military is directly involved in
forced labor trafficking. The ILO's attempts to work with the government to
address forced labor abuses have had only limited
success. Burma's failure to
make progress on forced labor more than offsets the government's improving, but
still inadequate, record of combating trafficking for sexual exploitation. The
government has allowed some limited but important NGO and international
organization activity to educate officials and vulnerable populations, and to
assist trafficking victims returning from abroad.
Prevention
Governmental measures to prevent trafficking for sexual exploitation
include publicizing the dangers in border areas via government-sponsored
discussion groups, distribution of printed materials, and media programming. The
government has worked with the UN to educate officials and potential victims on
the nature of
trafficking for sexual exploitation. The results are uneven and
their effectiveness is often undercut by the repressive political climate in
Burma and constrained by the government's limited financial
resources.
Government involvement in forced labor continues. Forced labor
prevention efforts are limited to posting directives prohibiting such practices.
The government has not publicly acknowledged that forced labor is a widespread
problem and has rebuffed recommendations on prevention made by the ILO, which
maintains an office in Rangoon.
Prosecution
Burma lacks a
comprehensive anti-trafficking law, but a combination of statutes against
kidnapping and prostitution is used to arrest and prosecute offenders who
traffick in persons for sexual exploitation. According to official government
data, Burma prosecuted about 100 such traffickers over the last year. Although
information on convictions is incomplete, sentences reportedly ranged from 5 to
12 years, with most carrying a prison sentence of seven years. Corruption is a
problem as some local and regional officials are suspected of turning a blind
eye to trafficking. The Burmese military has generally not implemented
directives prohibiting forced labor trafficking, while continuing to carry out
abuses including forced portering, road construction, and military conscription
(including of children). There have been no arrests or prosecutions of corrupt
officials related to trafficking.
Protection
The government
provides limited programming to provide women with income-generating skills and
to assist returning victims of trafficking, but there is no specific budget for
such activities, which are largely "self-financing." It allows two foreign NGOs
and the UN to provide some services and support for repatriation of victims
trafficked for sexual exploitation. The government provides no assistance to
victims trafficked for forced labor.
(end excerpt)
(Distributed by
the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web
site: http://usinfo.state.gov)
--------------------------------------------------------------
Business in Vancouver Fri Jun 13
Unions urge Ivanhoe Mines to leave Myanmar
The Canadian Labour Congress and the International
Federation of Chemical, Energy, Mine and General Workers Union will urge Ivanhoe
Mines to pull back from operations in Myanmar when they attend the
Singapore-based firm's annual shareholder meeting today in Vancouver.
The
union and the CLC both oppose Ivanhoe's joint mining ventures with the
government of Myanmar, the South-East Asian country formerly known as Burma.
"Ivanhoe management
should recognize that its continued investment in Burma is propping up a heinous
military dictatorship," said Kenneth Zinn, the union's North American regional
coordinator.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Bangkok Post - Friday 13 June 2003
Rangoon failing to shut down factories
Supply chain
through border remains intact
Wassana Nanuam
The Burmese government has been far from active in destroying the
factories from which most illicit drugs originate, said deputy army chief Gen
Wattanachai Chaimuenwong.
The supply chain through the northern border
with Burma was still intact, despite Burma's promises to hit production bases
controlled by ethnic rebels.
Gen Wattana said a decisive stand should be
adopted if Burma did nothing.
The prime minister's policy had always been
to tackle the problem at its root, and the root in this case was the
factories.
Earlier, Mr Thaksin said measures were being explored to cut
off supply channels once and for all. He did not elaborate.
Despite the
signing of a bilateral drugs agreement with Burma, suppression efforts had
succeeded only to a certain extent. No evidence came to light suggesting Rangoon
had destroyed a single drugs factory, Gen Wattanachai said.
Rangoon
should be doing more than catching culprits and seizing drugs. Large factories
ran their own laboratories and employed scientists to develop illicit
drugs.
Gen Wattanachai was uncertain if Burma had the will needed to
realise its goal of putting a permanent end to drugs production in two years.
A source said 30 make-shift drugs outlets were scattered along the
border with at least 10 larger factories sited deep into the Pang Sang township
under Wa control.
Gen Wattanachai said the government's drugs crackdown
had broken supply networks with many small peddlers arrested. However, the
factories were still intact, and large amounts of drugs had been stashed on the
Burmese side of the border, ready for smuggling.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Bangkok Post - Friday 13 June
2003
Junta power struggle holds Suu Kyi hostage
The UN
envoy suspects Burma's generals will need to work out their differences before
the dialogue with Suu Kyi can move ahead.
LARRY JAGAN
Razali Ismail, the United Nations' envoy to Burma, may have
rescued the fragile dialogue between that country's military rulers and
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
``"Now there is a very real
possibility of serious political talks between the two sides starting some time
in the future,'' a UN official said. ``But like everything in Burma, it is by no
means certain. It depends on developments in Rangoon.''
After five days
of protracted negotiations with Burma's military rulers, Mr Razali was finally
allowed to see Suu Kyi on Tuesday. ``She's in high spirits, looks well and
uninjured _ not even a scratch on her face,'' he said after the meeting, said to
be at a defence ministry guesthouse.
For the UN envoy, gaining access to
the opposition leader was the primary aim of his latest mission to Burma. At
least now the international community knows for certain that Suu Kyi is safe and
unharmed after what western diplomats are calling a premeditated and organised
assault on her motorcade and her supporters by government-sponsored thugs on May
30.
``As usual, the junta has given the minimum at the very last
minute,'' said a western diplomat who declined to be identified. ``But what we
need above all else is Aung San Suu Kyi's account of what happened, a definitive
account of the violent events on Black Friday [May 30],'' she said.
Apart
from gaining access to the opposition leader, Mr Razali seems to have come away
with little else. Suu Kyi remains in ``protective custody'', the whereabouts of
her trusted second lieutenant Tin U remains a mystery, the other leaders of the
National League for Democracy are still under house arrest, and most of their
main party offices remain shut.
The envoy though remains confident that
Suu Kyi will actually be released in the near future. ``I urged them to release
her, even begged them, and was told she would be freed soon,'' Mr Razali said.
Diplomats in Rangoon believe she might be released some time in the next few
weeks.
Whether this happens _ and when _ depends largely on what is
happening within the military hierarchy. For some time now there has been
growing evidence that there was a rift within the top ranks of the army over
what to do with Suu Kyi and whether to start direct talks with the opposition
leader.
The country's top general, Than Shwe, clearly feels there is no
need to negotiate with the opposition and the hard-liners who share his view
have led the campaign against Suu Kyi as she travelled around the country. It is
this faction which was certainly responsible for the attack on her convoy and
supporters on May 30.
But not everyone within Burma's ruling military
council, or State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), seems to share this
approach. The pragmatists _ believed to be centred around the military
intelligence chief General Khin Nyunt _ are prepared to talk to Suu Kyi and at
the same time are keen to engage the international community on political and
economic reform in the country. They are clearly embarrassed by what went on
up-country before Suu Kyi was detained.
``It is highly significant that
General Than Shwe was out of town during most of Ambassador Razali's visit,'' a
senior Asian diplomat in Rangoon said. ``He appears to have gone to a seaside
resort shortly after the envoy's arrival and returned just before Ambassador
Razali left for Kuala Lumpur.''
This has raised crucial questions about
the senior general's position and authority. Diplomats are curious about the
fact that there has been no photos of Gen Than Shwe in the state media since the
violent attack against the opposition leader. This is more than curious as the
media usually follow and document his every move _ especially when he leaves the
capital and when he returns, say diplomats.
It is unclear whether Gen
Than Shwe is simply distancing himself from the violent events in the north of
the country _ which were clearly orchestrated by his followers and supporters _
or whether his two immediate subordinates have moved against him in some
way.
`There are signs of a power struggle going on in Rangoon,'' said a
retired senior Asian diplomat who has close ties with Burma but did not wish to
be identified. ``There are few public manifestations of this but, in the next
few months, there is likely to be a major shake up of the top brass _ similar to
what happened some 10 years ago when General Saw Maung was pushed
out.''
There is no doubt that there was an intense debate within Burma's
top military leadership _ possibly confined to the triumvirate of Generals Than
Shwe, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt _ over whether to allow Mr Razali to see Suu Kyi.
Even though the envoy met Gen Khin Nyunt on the second day of his visit, it was
only when he met Gen Maung Aye _ the day before he was scheduled to leave _ that
he was virtually guaranteed access to the opposition leader.
``What is
now clear is that Gen Maung Aye is exercising power _ even in the national
reconciliation process, which he had kept well away from since it started,'' a
Rangoon-based western diplomat said. ``And this may now signal the turning point
in the dialogue.''
In the past three years during his frequent trips to
Rangoon, Mr Razali had not met Gen Maung Aye _ except when he met all three of
the top leaders, on which occasion Gen Khin Nyunt took the lead.
But the
dialogue process which Mr Razali helped broker between the Burmese generals and
the opposition leader while she was under house arrest is obviously in trouble.
Even UN officials associated with the envoy say ``there is no real process at
present''.
The latest crisis though may provide an opportunity to revive
the whole dialogue process and get substantive talks started between the two
sides.
Mr Razali remains upbeat. ``I tried to convince both sides that
this was an opportunity to move forward,'' he said. ``There is a need to stop
this show of strength; the time has come to sit down and discuss what is the
future ahead.'' Mr Razali believes both sides now understand that and are
willing to take the next step.
It is now up to Burma's military rulers to
make the first move. ``They have to let her out if they want to continue with
national reconciliation,'' Mr Razali. said. ``You can't do it with one party
locked up.''
Two of Burma's top three generals have assured the envoy
that this will happen soon. But that will not be sufficient for the envoy or the
international community. ``They must do something now to indicate they are
serious about moving quickly to discussing things with her,'' he said, ``a point
I also made to them after meeting her.''
Senior Asian diplomats believe
Suu Kyi may even be released within days, just before or during next week's
Asean meetings in Phnom Penh. But a UN source close to the national
reconciliation process said: ``It is unlikely to happen as quickly as that.
There are many issues that need to be resolved in Rangoon before the authorities
will feel it's safe to free her.''
In the space of two weeks, the
pendulum may be swinging back in favour of the pragmatists _ those who want to
talk to Suu Kyi and realise they must implement political and economic reform.
Diplomats and UN officials feel that Burma's leaders were worried by the
prospect of the country's political problems being discussed at next week's
Asean meeting and by the UN Security Council.
Aung San Suu Kyi is only
likely to be released after the current political struggle within Burma's
military leadership is resolved.