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The Straits Times - May 26,
2000.
Myanmar needs surgery, not cosmetic changes
EYE ON THE WORLD TOMORROW is the 10th anniversary of an election Myanmar's military government would rather forget but cannot erase from the history books. On that day -- May 27, 1990 -- the Myanmar people voted overwhelmingly for the National League for Democracy (NLD) but the generals refused to honour its landslide victory and transfer power over to the civilians. Ten years on, the impoverished country remains trapped in a political gridlock that has all but paralysed it. The generals want to destroy the NLD, while its leader, Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, opposes anything which bolsters their rule, from Asean membership to foreign investments and tourism in Myanmar. Politics has become a zero-sum game, with each side bent on annihilating the other. What hope is there for Myanmar? Professor Khin Maung Kyi and a group of Myanmar economists, who conducted a study under the auspices of the National University of Singapore, have sketched out their vision and strategy in a book -- Economic Development Of Burma -- to seek deliverance for their country. Theirs is a clinical assessment of what has gone wrong -- and a bold prescription to revive the comatose economy. They offer no magic formula. Rather, it is going back to the basics to open up Myanmar and let market forces operate freely. That simple? Yes, but it is easier said than done in Myanmar's case, because such a move has profound ramifications. It is, in fact, shifting Myanmar's backward economy into a new paradigm. To start with, Myanmar lacks the institutional basis of a market economy, which was destroyed by 26 years of misrule under the previous socialist government. As the economists put it, "whatever market flourishes in Burma these days exists more by default than by design... "The laws enacted to restrict trade under the previous regime are still operative. The authorities can exercise control at their will... "The civil service, once recognised as a stalwart of social change, is in complete disarray... "The legal system, including the laws, courts and judges needs to be drastically revived and revamped... "With the proliferation of line ministries each administering its own sector as a fiefdom without much coordination among themselves, the highest state apparatus resembles a collection of feudal warlords." Although the military government talks about a new openness to market forces, in reality, it retains a battery of controls over the economy. "The alleged openness is highly selective and, in effect, is only with enterprises in which the military regime participates either directly or indirectly." Myanmar needs desperately to make up for its lost generation, the economists concur. It has to scrap the fictitious official exchange rate, abolish state monopolies in rice and teak, modernise agriculture, liberalise trade and promote investments. "Burma, having been so long dominated by economic nationalism, socialist ideology and the resultant isolation -- the switch to an economic calculus will not be an easy change. We expect that adjustments, compromises and new adaptions will have to be made." There is no "quick fix", the study concludes. The political and economic systems need major surgery, not cosmetic changes. "Politically, there must be a genuine dialogue and eventual consensus on the outline of a new constitutional framework that is not dominated by the military and which respects the rights and concerns of all the people, including all the ethnic minorities." A new mindset is needed, but there are no reformers in the military government. The generals have already rejected a World Bank report which links foreign aid with political reforms, even though they have neither the means nor the expertise to overcome the country's problems. Undaunted, the economists urge the junta and its pro-democracy opponents to reconcile and make peace. "Are we going to let ourselves sink into a deeper morass of poverty and inconsequence, just because each side thinks that one is so right and the other so wrong?" Well said. This, alas, is how things are in Myanmar's repressive and unyielding political climate today. [The writer is Chief Regional Correspondent of The Straits Times.] The Straits Time - May 26, 2000. Myanmar's 'lost generation'
The educational stalemate, a result of the junta's fear of unrest, has caused lost opportunities for many youths YANGON -- Of Myanmar's many problems, one of the worst is the paralysis of the country's education system, because of the military junta's fear of political unrest. The educational stalemate has given rise to a "lost generation" of students and compromised its future. Myanmar's universities, which have been breeding grounds in the past for anti-government unrest, have been closed sporadically since a popular uprising in 1988 threatened to topple the military regime. While many student activists remain in prison or in exile, the result has been a decade of lost opportunities for all Myanmar's youth. Many students fill their time doing odd jobs, such as driving taxis or selling beer. As the authorities see the gathering of students in cities such as Yangon and Mandalay as signs of potential trouble, functioning universities offer only correspondence courses to two-thirds of their students, leaving campuses largely empty. The other third of the students have been allowed to return to classes since mid-December 1999, but most of them are studying in new technical institutes far outside city centres where protesters usually gathered. The authorities denied that security reasons were behind the move to keep students away from the cities and said it was being done because of the lack of space and dilapidated state of the city centre campuses. Deputy Minister of Education Myo Nyunt told AFP that the students were moved "because of the extension of the university programmes". He insisted that the level of higher education in Myanmar is "on a par with the developed countries of the region" and took pride in a education plan that gaves emphasis to multimedia training. The Internet and other forms of high-tech communications are strictly controlled in Myanmar. Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, routinely accuses the military rulers of "sacrificing the future" of Myanmar's youth to safeguard their hold on power. "Dictatorships don't really care to educate their people because they prefer to keep their people ignorant and subdued, that is the way of all dictatorships." she told AFP last year. -- AFP
Bleak future for youngsters MYANMAR'S universities, which have been breeding grounds in the past for anti-government unrest, have been closed sporadically since a popular uprising in 1988. Many student activists remain in prison or in exile. Others fill their time by driving taxis or selling beer. Thais to repatriate 100,000 refugees within three years
BANGKOK -- Thailand has vowed to repatriate all of the more than 100,000 Myanmar refugees living in camps along the Thai-Myanmar border within three years, the government said. "We have given them more than 15 years of humanitarian assistance and the current situation in Myanmar is favourable for repatriation," Mr Khachadpai Burusapatana, Secretary-General of the National Security Council, told reporters. With the help of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and other international organisations, the Thai government would repatriate the refugees "in the next three years", Mr Khachadpai said. Thailand is home to around 102,000 displaced people from Myanmar, who fled either persecution by the military government or fighting between junta troops and insurgent groups. Though the Myanmar junta has completed peace agreements with several ethnic insurgent forces, fighting still rages between the Karen National Union (KNU) and the Myanmar army. According to the Thai government, at least 4,000 refugees have already chosen to return to Myanmar. Thailand has repeatedly stated that it wants to repatriate the refugees and has asked for help from the United Nations in beginning the process. Most of the refugees live in camps in the western and northern provinces of Mae Hong Son, Tak, Ratchburi, Kanchanaburi and Prachuab Khirikhan. -- AFP Paris, Friday, May 26, 2000
After 10 Years, Burmese Still Wait -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- By John J. Brandon International Herald Tribune -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WASHINGTON - Ten years ago Saturday, democrats won a landslide election victory in Burma over the military government. Rather than honor that victory by the National League for Democracy, the military ignored the results and tightened its grip on power. Burma's government, renamed the State Peace and Development Council in 1997, justified the annulment by saying that it was the only institution able to keep the country together, maintain order and promote economic development. Despite such claims, Burma's people have paid a heavy price. Political,
economic and social conditions have grown worse in the past decade. The military
has refused to engage in any serious political reform, including establishing a
dialogue with the National League for Democracy and its leader, the Nobel
laureate Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. After spending six years under house arrest, Daw
Aung San Suu Kyi's movements remain strictly confined. Her party members have
been muted through intimidation, imprisonment and torture.
Inflation in Burma is high. The country imports more than it exports, and
the current account deficit is widening. In the past year, foreign investment
has plummeted because of Burma's political uncertainty, inefficient economic
policies, lack of transparency and corruption. The generals appear to have
neither the interest nor the ability to deal with the country's economic
difficulties.
Burma is beset by social ills. Around 40 percent of the national budget is
spent on the military - at the expense of social services, particularly
education and health. The United Nations Development Program reports than only
25 percent of Burma's schoolchildren complete basic education, while 30 percent
of children never go to school at all. Universities have been closed for most of
the past decade to preempt student protest. There is a backlog of around 1
million students waiting for universities to reopen.
The health care system has collapsed because of a serious shortage of
medical supplies and personnel. Burma spends only 0.2 percent of its budget on
its healthcare system - an average of 50 cents a person. Child mortality,
malnutrition and the spread of the HIV/AIDS virus and other deadly diseases are
increasing.
Yet the military finds itself more powerful now than it has ever been
because it dominates the country's politics and economy. Events elsewhere give
the junta little incentive to yield power to a civilian government - the
disintegration of Yugoslavia, South Korea's prosecution of two former presidents
for corruption and abuse of power and now former President Suharto and his
generals in Indonesia being called to account for alleged corrupt practices and
human rights abuses.
The junta has all the power, but Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the National
League for Democracy have all the legitimacy. The only way a democratic form of
government can emerge without a popular revolt is through compromise. The
generals will have to allow it to happen.
Bringing this about will not be easy. Burma's military rulers have many
enemies because they have mistreated the people. The generals fear retribution
if they lose power.
Shortly after the 1990 election, a former National League for Democracy
leader said that no revenge would be sought against the military for its harsh
actions against civilian demonstrators. If a meaningful political dialogue is to
develop, such assurances need to be repeated.
This will not be popular with some in Burma's democracy movement. But
without such compromise, the political deadlock will remain.
The writer, assistant director of the Asia Foundation in
Washington, contributed this personal comment to the International Herald
Tribune.
South China Morning Post - Friday, May
26, 2000
BURMA Hundreds of monks to march on
capital
WILLIAM BARNES -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hundreds of monks are poised to march on Rangoon to demand the military regime negotiate with the democratic opposition. Ashin Khaymar Sarra, a founding member of the All Burma Young Monks' Union, said in Bangkok yesterday that many sections of the powerful religious establishment were frustrated and impatient with Burma's suffering under military rule. Ashin Khaymar Sarra said monks would descend on the capital from Mandalay, Moulmein and Mergui. Political analysts said even if their effort was stopped at the gates of the monasteries, it would be a pointer to how dissatisfaction could surface in the future. The Government has already dismissed talk of unrest by the monks as the
fantasy of "bogus monks based on the Thai side of the border". Yet there were
enough reliable reports of dissatisfaction in the hundreds of monasteries around
the country to suggest something was stirring among a group of men who
traditionally played a leading role in opposition, dating to the British
colonial days.
One of the country's leading monks, Ashin Kundalabiwuntha, the abbot of
Mahaghandharon Monastery in Mandalay, sent letters to the junta leader, General
Than Shwe, and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi in November appealing for them
to end their quarrels and start "a clean slate". The abbot also wrote a similar
letter to the retired former dictator Ne Win, who may still wield considerable
influence. There have been similar appeals from other senior monks.
The regime has tried to dress itself up as a protector of Buddhism in a bid
to shore up its tattered legitimacy. It has also tried to ensure that the
religious establishment is in the hands of friendly, or pliable, monks.
Yet the single, ascetic and often young men who make up the bulk of the
300,000 to 400,000 monks remain a potentially potent force.
South China Morning Post - Friday, May 26,
2000
BURMA Dhaka to host Rangoon's top
general
ARSHAD MAHMUD in Dhaka --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bangladesh has finally agreed, albeit reluctantly, to host Burmese junta leader General Than Shwe for a two-day official visit starting on Monday. The visit, the first by any leader of the junta to a country outside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), follows more than a year of intense diplomatic lobbying by Rangoon, which is anxious to break its international isolation. It has been officially dubbed a "goodwill visit" intended to enhance
co-operation between the two. But both countries are attempting to extract
maximum mileage out of the trip.
A Bangladesh Foreign Ministry official said: "We'll discuss all the issues
relevant to us, including the long-festering Burmese refugee problem."
Diplomatic observers said Rangoon stood to gain most from the visit, as the
junta had apparently succeeded in ending the international isolation it had
faced since preventing the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu
Kyi, from coming to power a decade ago.
Members of the military leadership have never been invited outside the
southeast Asian region. The general's visit to Bangladesh is the first on a
bilateral level in more than 10 years and is seen as a triumph for the junta.
Observers in Dhaka are asking whether Bangladesh is endorsing the military
regime and whether it can afford to be seen siding with an international pariah
over the objections of powerful countries like the United States and Japan, on
which Dhaka relies heavily for economic assistance.
But a Bangladesh Foreign Ministry official said: "We're fully aware of the
sensitivities surrounding the invitation and we're doing it for our own
reasons."
Dhaka apparently agreed to entertain the general after the junta on several
occasions indicated that the refugee issue could be resolved once an invitation
was extended. Bangladesh, it has been learned, finally made its decision after
the powerful donors dropped objections to the visit.
"We understand the predicament in which Bangladesh is in regarding the
refugees and we sincerely want the issue to be peacefully resolved," a US
embassy official said, adding: "This would also lighten our financial burden
once the refugees are gone."
The US and other donor countries have supported successive governments in
Dhaka since the refugee crisis started nearly a decade ago when more than
250,000 Rohiyangas, as the Burmese minority Muslims are called, fled persecution
by the Burmese army in the neighbouring Arakan province. Although most of the
Rohiyangas have returned over the years, about 20,000 are still languishing in
Bangladeshi camps.
Despite repeated assurances, Burma says it is still reluctant to take them
back on unexplained "technical grounds". "We're very hopeful that the visit
would result in their immediate repatriation," an official said.
South China Morning Post - Friday, May
26, 2000
BURMA Junta clings stubbornly to
power
WILLIAM BARNES in Bangkok -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In a rare election 10 years ago tomorrow, the people of Burma voted overwhelmingly for Aung San Suu Kyi, the daughter of an independence hero, and her political party. Even the military junta that has run the country since a 1962 coup agrees that 40 million Burmese voted for change, for relief from a life of poverty and restriction. A decade on, nearly everyone - even the military - agrees that the bright hope of the election crowds of 1990 remains unfulfilled. Poverty has deepened, hundreds of thousands of children have lost an education, there is widespread military abuse and an explosion of the disease Aids. "The tragedy of Burma is that we cannot be certain that even this heavy
price will be rewarded with even a competent, let alone a democratic, government
in the foreseeable future," said a Western ambassador in Rangoon.
The stubborn military establishment, nurtured on isolation and deprivation,
appears to be unwavering in its determination not to yield up any of its powers
to a popular opposition.
Aung San Suu Kyi herself said in an opposition video interview smuggled out
of Rangoon this week that the regime remained obsessed with protecting itself -
and the nation - from the "traitors" it saw all around it. "Security is used as
an excuse for crushing the rights of the people," she said. "But just because
people are regimented does not mean a country is secure, because where people
are grossly regimented, dissatisfaction runs underground. And that can mean
future problems for the country."
Only the junta's propagandists do not doubt that the vast majority of
Burmese are deeply unhappy with the truncated life they are forced to lead in a
country that in the 1950s was tipped to become an Asian economic star.
"The people are furious with the military," Dr Sann Aung, an independent MP
from Irrawaddy who is labour minister in the exile government, said yesterday.
"They have really had enough, so this certainly can't go on much longer." Dr
Sann Aung argues that even the generals realise they will not be able to keep a
lid on the popular pressure building up forever. He sees increasing signs they
are willing to open talks with the opposition, a prospect they have scoffed at
in the past.
Yet many observers wonder how desperate the State Peace and Development
Committee, as the ruling junta styles itself, really is. The economy may have
been run into deep distress by the regime's incompetent management, but Burma is
a resource-rich country that has survived decades of below-par growth and often
bizarre government. The military establishment that emerged after its
authoritarian patron, General Ne Win, resigned in 1988 is unlikely to feel
threatened after nearly tripling the size of its army in a decade.
Organised opposition is centred on the University Avenue house in Rangoon
of one middle-aged woman and a dwindling band of hardcore supporters willing to
put up with the military's harassment. Even most of the rebel ethnic groups that
have been bitter enemies of central Burmese governments have mostly been quieted
with massive displays of firepower and offers of business - if not politics - as
usual.
"I do not subscribe to the theory that this regime is on its last legs.
That is wishful thinking. They can control the upper ranks of the army with
favours and quite easily crush any outbreaks of public opposition," said a
senior member of an international lending institution.
"If there is intelligent life in the military then, yes, of course they
should try to negotiate with the opposition from a strong position that will
weaken as the years go by," he said. "Sadly, I fear they do not have the will or
the initiative to do this."
South China Morning Post - Friday, May
26, 2000
BURMA Bangkok arms Karen to fight cross-border
drug menace
DEUTSCHE PRESSE-AGENTUR -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A senior Thai official has conceded that Bangkok is supporting "clandestine sabotage operations" in Burma's Shan state. Deputy Foreign Minister Sukhumphand Paribatra admitted to the Far Eastern Economic Review that his country was backing covert anti-narcotics operations there in an effort to stem the flow of 600 million methamphetamine pills into the country this year from areas controlled by the Wa ethnic minority. The magazine quoted Thai intelligence sources as saying former members of
Britain's elite Special Air Services regiment were being recruited to train
members of Burma's ethnic Karen community as agents in the war on drugs. About
120,000 Karen refugees live in northern Thailand. The Karen is the only tribe
still opposing Rangoon's rule WIRE:05/25/2000 07:36:00 ET
Myanmar monks marching to Yangon, dissidents say BANGKOK, May 25 (Reuters) - Thousands of Myanmar Buddhist monks are
planning to converge on the capital Yangon to urge the ruling military to
open talks with the democratic opposition, their representatives said on
Thursday.
Ashin Khaymarsara, a dissident monk who lives along the Thai-Myanmar border, told a news conference in Bangkok that at least 1,000 monks would march 640 km (400 miles) from northern Mandalay to Yangon. Another 1,000 monks would also march 480 km (300 miles) from
southeastern Mawlamyaing to the capital and another group the 290 km (180
mile) route from northern Magwee to Yangon, he said.
The monks want to mark the 10th anniversary of the aborted May 27
1990 general election in Myanmar which the opposition National League for
Democracy (NLD) swept but whose result the military ignored.
The NLD, led by Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, and the ruling
State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) have been at political
loggerheads for nearly five years since she was released from house
arrest.
"The monks would like to ask both the SPDC and the NLD to hold a
dialogue," Ashin said.
Also present at the news conference was, San Aung, "the minister for
labour" of the dissident Myanmar government in exile -- the National
Coalition Government of the Union of Burma (NCGUB).
He urged the military rulers to recognise the right of elected
representatives of Myanmar to convene parliament and cease all
restrictions against them.
But a government spokesman told Reuters from Myanmar that the report
of monks marching was "a total fabrication."
"The monks and people in Myanmar are more than fed-up and frustrated
with the nonsense the anti-government groups are churning up," he
said.
As the 10th anniversary of the annulled election approaches on May
27, tension between the SPDC and the NLD has increased. NLD members and
dissidents have alleged that the government has arrested members from
their group to stop them from commemorating the day at the NLD's Yangon
headquarters.
The NLD said last week that 12 elected representatives and 83
township organising committee members were arrested two weeks ago by the
military and one of the 12 representatives was sentenced to nine years in
prison.
WIRE:05/25/2000 09:22:00 ET
INTERVIEW-E.U., ASEAN seen unwavering on Myanmar KUALA LUMPUR, May 25 (Reuters) - The European Union will never accept
military ruled Myanmar but it does not want its stand on the country to
damage ties with the regional group of which it is a member, a senior
Member of the European Parliament said on Thursday.
"We don't want to damage our relationship with ASEAN as a result of Myanmar," Carlos Costa-Neves, head of a European Parliament delegation to the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), said in an interview in the Malaysian capital. "But we cannot accept Myanmar as Myanmar is now."
ASEAN is made of up Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Myanmar joined the grouping in 1997 amid protests from the European
Union, the United States and human rights activists who assailed its
military rulers for ignoring democratic elections in 1990 and cracking
down on dissident.
Costa-Neves said Myanmar had not yielded to pressure from Western
nations to improve its human rights record, while ASEAN believed it was
right to shield and nurture the country as it took its own course towards
democratisation.
"The position of the ASEAN countries is they think it's better to
manage the situation by keeping Myanmar within ASEAN," said Costa-Neves.
"But for us in the European Parliament, human rights is not something
which we can make up as we like."
"The truth is after all these years, neither our hard approach or
ASEAN's soft approach has produced any results," said the vice-chairman of
the European Parliament, who was in Singapore before Malaysia as part of a
two-nation tour.
Myanmar's military has ruled with an iron fist since a 1962 coup. The
generals called an election in 1990 following a bloody pro-democracy
uprising but ignored the result when democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi won
by a landslide.
The United States marked the 10th anniversary of the election last
week by endorsing the Myanmar democracy movement. Myanmar then accused the
United States of misunderstanding its process of democratisation.
Costa-Neves, from Portugal, was leading a five-member delegation
comprising two European Parliament members from the United Kingdom, one
from Austria and one from Denmark.
In Kuala Lumpur, the group met Malaysia's Acting Foreign Minister
Azmi Khalid, opposition leaders and the head of a newly-formed human
rights commission.
Costa-Neves said Malaysia's position on Myanmar echoed the rest of
ASEAN, although Singapore was more forthcoming.
"The Singapore prime minister admitted quite frankly during our
meeting that Myanmar issue had gone quite differently from how ASEAN had
anticipated it," he said.
Despite the differences, he said, the E.U. was unlikely to push its
point to the extent of hurting ties with ASEAN.
"We don't want to put too much conditions into this thing, but we
have to find a solution for our relationship to move forward as the E.U
does not want to meet an ASEAN with Myanmar in it. "
WIRE:05/26/2000 04:51:00 ET
EU lawmakers commend Malaysia but worry over Anwar KUALA LUMPUR, May 26 (Reuters) - European parliamentarians commended
Malaysia on Friday for setting up a human rights commission but expressed
concern over jailed former finance minister Anwar Ibrahim's sex
trial.
A five-member delegation from the European Parliament released a statement at the end of a three-day visit, reiterating the European Union's opposition to the military government in Myanmar. The delegation said there was excellent potential for future
cooperation between the European Union and Southeast Asia, and cited the
"impressive recovery in the Malaysian economy," which grew by 11.7 percent
in the first quarter of this year.
The parliamentarians, led by Portugal's Carlos Costa-Neves of the
European People's Party, said member states of the Association of South
East Asian Nations (ASEAN) were paying more attention to internationally
recognised principles of human rights.
But it staked out differences over Myanmar and Malaysia.
"The possibility of relaunching the dialogue between the European
Union and ASEAN was discussed, while it was recognised that the military
regime in Myanmar still posed problems," it said.
ASEAN is made up of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia,
Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
The EU has imposed sanctions on Myanmar because of the treatment of
the opposition led by Nobel peace prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Her
party won an election in 1990 by a landslide but the military ignored the
result and detained many of its members.
An EU visa ban on senior Myanmar officials forced the cancellation of
a meeting of foreign ministers from the EU and ASEAN last year. A
lower-level meeting was later held instead.
On Thursday, Costa-Neves told Reuters the EU would never accept
military ruled Myanmar but it did not want its stand to damage ties with
ASEAN.
EU EXPRESSES DISQUIET OVER ANWAR
The delegation of EU parliamentarians welcomed Malaysia's decision to
establish the National Human Rights Commission and its intention to
examine laws which critics say infringe civil liberties. It did not
specify which laws.
It said the European lawmakers met opposition leaders and discussed
Anwar's case, reconfirming the position of the EU, "which has expressed
disquiet about the fairness of the trial and is keeping the case under
close scrutiny."
Anwar was sacked in 1998 and later indicted on five counts each of
corruption and sodomy. He pleaded not guilty, saying he was the victim of
a government plot to destroy his political career and prevent him from
ever exposing corruption.
He was sentenced to six years in jail in April 1999, and is currently
standing trial on one count of sodomy punishable by up to 20 years in jail
and whipping.
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has said Anwar, who was also deputy
prime minister, was morally unfit to succeed him and his former protege
had tried to topple his government through riots.
The European Parliament delegation included two members from Britain,
one from Austria and one from Denmark.
BBC-Thursday, 25 May, 2000, 20:51 GMT
21:51 UK
Burma anniversary galvanises opposition Thousands of Buddhist monks are reported to be planning a march on the
Burmese capital Rangoon to mark the 10th anniversary of the democratic
opposition's aborted election victory.
According to a dissident Burmese monk, the priests intend to march up to 400 miles from Mandalay and by other routes, to Rangoon to urge the ruling junta to open talks with the National League for Democracy (NLD). "If the military uses force against the monks...ordinary people will react
against the military"Ashin Khayamassara
The NLD, led by Nobel Peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, has been repeatedly suppressed by the military regime in the years since its election victory. But a government spokesman told Reuters news agency from Burma that the
report of the monks' march was "a total fabrication."
Victory
The NLD swept to victory in the general election in Burma on27 May 1990 but
the result was ignored by the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).
The chairman of the All-Burma Young Monks Union, Ashin Khayamassara,
speaking in Bangkok, said the junta "cannot crush the monks'
movement....momentum is gaining day by day."
He added: "If the military uses force against the monks, students and
ordinary people will react against the military."
Arrests
The NLD alleges that the government has arrested 12 elected representatives
and 83 committee members ahead of the election anniversary.
State-controlled Rangoon Radio reported that 470 NLD members had resigned -
a result, said Aung San Suu Kyi, of coercion by the military.
The more than 250,000 Buddhist monks in Burma have a long history of
political activism and civil disobedience.
Decade After Historic Election, No
Democracy in Myanmar
AP- Thursday, May 25, 2000 By Grant
Peck
YANGON, Myanmar — Old people here may someday tell their disbelieving
grandchildren of the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity they had May 27, 1990.
That was the day they voted.
Even now, barely 10 years past, it seems no more than myth. They elected a
new parliament, but the army never allowed it to convene.
Today, the same grim men in the same green uniforms rule the country — as
they have since the army overthrew the last democratic government in a 1962
coup.
"We had already enjoyed parliamentary democracy ... but the younger
generation doesn't know about the value of parliamentary democracy," laments Tin
Oo, vice chairman of the National League for Democracy, the opposition party.
Myanmar, also called Burma, hasn't had a freely elected government since
the military coup, and no one is promising one soon. But a decade ago, things
looked different.
On election day 1990, more than 72 percent of the country's eligible voters
cast ballots.
Overwhelmingly, they voted for the NLD, born out of a pro-democracy
movement that had taken root two years earlier in weeks of street protests the
army crushed.
The election was a rare moment for Myanmar, a nation with a history of
troubled politics. The pattern had been set with the assassination by political
rivals of independence leader Gen. Aung San, just six months before Burma won
freedom from Britain in 1948.
Without Aung San's strong leadership, the fledgling democracy foundered.
Political schisms were exacerbated by ethnic separatist movements that flared
into full-blown border insurgencies.
Using the excuses of a deteriorating economy and a secession threat by the
Shan minority, army Gen. Ne Win led a coup March 2, 1962.
But his socialist military regime failed to reconcile with the minorities
and turned what had been one of the region's richest countries — with onshore
oil deposits and rich rice-growing areas — into an economic backwater.
The bloody street unrest of 1988 shattered his government, but a new
generation of generals took its place.
In an attempt to gain international legitimacy, the junta held elections in
1990. The NLD took 392 of the 485 parliamentary seats. The military-backed
National United Party took 10.
The NLD won even though its leader, Aung San Suu Kyi — Aung San's daughter
— was then under house arrest and her deputy, former army brigadier Tin Oo, was
in prison.
At first, the generals seemed to take their loss in stride. Kyaw Sann, a
government spokesman, said then: "Any government that is formed according to the
constitution will be strong and stable. It is totally up to the elected members.
They can move as quickly as they like and take power."
But two months later, when the NLD moved to form a government, the military
rulers decreed they would retain power under martial law, which would continue
until a strong constitution was in place. Furthermore, they said, the newly
elected representatives' sole duty was to draft that constitution.
In January 1993, the military convened a National Convention to draw up a
new constitution — and hand-picked 603 of the 702 convention delegates. The
NLD's 88 representatives withdrew three years later after it was clear they were
supposed to rubber-stamp the military's edicts to prolong its power.
The National Convention has done little since its early sessions and has no
deadline to produce a constitution.
Soon after the military foiled the new parliament, it began arresting and
harassing NLD members, including the elected representatives.
Since then, it's been a political war of attrition. Just 169 of the
original 485 representatives remain valid members of the would-be parliament,
government spokesman Col. Than Tun said last week — 110 from the NLD, 20 from
other parties and 39 independents.
Thirty-four members died, 185 were disqualified and 97 "voluntarily
resigned from elected membership," the colonel said.
In October 1998, the NLD set up a 10-member surrogate parliament.
Infuriated, the military rounded up more than 850 party members; it still holds
69 of the 110 valid NLD legislators at government "guest houses," a lighter form
of detention than prison.
More representatives have been arrested in recent weeks. The government
suggests the arrestees have links to banned ethnic insurgents, but the NLD says
this is just another heavy-handed effort to disrupt its activities.
The government refuses to speak with Suu Kyi, winner of the 1991 Nobel
Peace Prize, who was released from six years of house arrest in 1995 but remains
under tight restriction. The generals consider her a traitor for supporting
international economic sanctions intended to force democratic changes in
Myanmar.
The sanctions, by the United States and the European Union, have done
little but increase the generals' stubbornness.
Myanmar belongs to the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations, an
organization more sympathetic to the military's nationalistic line, but even
that relationship has failed to ease the junta's sense of isolation and its
belief it is warding off U.S.-led neocolonialism disguised as democracy.
Tin Oo told The Associated Press the NLD would try to celebrate Saturday's
election anniversary but expected the authorities to step in.
"Ten years is a very auspicious occasion," Tin Oo said.
Friday, May 26 2:34 PM SGT
Myanmar supremo's Dhaka trip seen
as effort at "constructive engagement"
DHAKA, May 26 (AFP) - Myanmar junta chief Senior General Than Shwe's visit to Bangladesh
beginning Monday underscores a policy of "constructive engagement" being pursued
in the region, diplomats and analysts here say.
They argue that Dhaka sees no contradiction between its ties with Yangon
and its support for a pro-democracy campaign in the neighbouring country.
Myanmar is the only country apart from India to border Bangladesh.
Than Shwe, 68, military commander in chief, prime minister and defence
minister and the junta's final arbiter, will be the first top leader from
Myanmar to visit since Bangladesh wrested its independence from Pakistan in
1971. Myanmar was among the first countries to recognise the new state.
Relations were strained in the early 1990s with an influx of some 250,000
Rohingya Muslims from Myanmar into Bangladesh, claiming atrocities committed by
the Yangon junta against them.
Most of the refugees have been repatriated under a United Nations
agreement, but more than 20,000 are still living in Bangladeshi camps.
"Bangladesh has always maintained ties with Myanmar based on its policy of
constructive engagement, although it (the policy) has not paid off so far," said
Chowdhury Abrar of Dhaka University's International Relations faculty.
"I hope the visit will shift the stand of Myanmar on the Rohingya refugees
and other issues or else Dhaka should shift its position and take a tough
stand," he said.
The other issues include demarcation of a maritime boundary, opening a
direct road link and coastal shipping links and the expansion of bilateral trade
between the two neighbours.
"By inviting the Myanmar prime minister, Bangladesh has given the maximum
its foreign policy permits and thus the returns should be substantial,"
Chowdhury said.
Bangladesh Foreign Minister Abdus Samad Azad said: "This visit is very
important from different sides."
Both are also members of new regional grouping BIMSTEC -- Economic
Cooperation among Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand.
Than Shwe will hold talks with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wajed and meet
President Shahabuddin Ahmed, officials said.
Abdur Rob Khan of official think tank, the Bangladesh Institute of
International Strategic Studies, said: "this visit will provide Bangladesh an
opportunity to talk directly at the highest level to resolve problems between
the two neighbours."
He said one important step the two sides could take during this "rare visit
at such an high level" was to create a "special economic active zone" along the
border to ease the pressure on people who now seek to cross illegally into
Bangladesh.
"Joint-venture industries or other businesses could be set up in the area,"
Khan said.
The two sides should also address the problem of armed groups who are
reportedly operating from the dense jungles on the border, he said.
Defending Bangladesh's support for pro-democracy groups in Myanmar, Azad
pointed out that Sheikh Hasina fought for democracy at home and also lent
support to such campaigns elsewhere in the world.
"We have sympathy for the democratic movement there and feel such contacts
help democratic movements. Besides, for national interest we cannot wait to
resolve bilateral problems," Azad said.
Asked if the human rights situation and the democratic campaign in Myanmar
would be on the agenda of talks with Than Shwe, he said "there is no agenda, but
our focus will be the repatriation of 20,900 Rohingya refugees and trade."
Khan said Bangladesh should extend a high-profile welcome to impress the
guest and convince him that Dhaka valued Yangon's friendship. This might be
helpful in resolving bilateral issues and fostering economic cooperation, he
said.
Friday, May 26 3:54 PM SGT
Myanmar heightens crackdown on eve of 10th anniversary of Suu Kyi winYANGON, May 26 (AFP) -One day before the 10th anniversary of Aung San Suu Kyi's nullified election victory, the Yangon regime has heightened its crackdown on dissent, warning the media and Buddhist clergy not to mark the anniversary. Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) had invited reporters in Yangon to attend ceremonies marking the 10th anniversary of its election victory, which was overturned by the military. But the junta has requested the media not attend any NLD events on May 27th, government sources said. The regime also has warned the Buddhist clergy to "protect against some monks" reportedly planning to march south from central Mandalay to the capital to protest against the junta. And official media reported Friday that military intelligence had arrested an opposition activist it accused of formenting political unrest. TV Myanmar said 32-year-old Zaw Minn Oo was detained on Sunday in Pegue town, northeast of Yangon, for "collaborating with Thailand-based anti-Yangon militant student group All Burma Students' Democratic Front." Zaw Min Oo reportedly handed out anti-government pamphlets in the town and in villages along the Thai-Myanmar border, including to Buddhist monks and other religious leaders. Rumours have been widespread in Myanmar and Thailand that monks are planning an anti-government march to commemorate the anniversary. Yangon police have met with high-ranking monks and told them "to be on guard against the insidious danger of some members of the Sangha (Buddhist clergy)," said a report Friday in the state-controlled New Light of Myanmar newspaper. "The outside danger will not appear as long as there is unity among members of the Sangha," the New Light quoted the police as saying. Ten years ago this week, the people of Myanmar voted to send the army back to the barracks in a crushing rejection of decades of isolationist military rule. Stunned by the defeat of its front party, the military annulled the NLD's election victory, claiming it had been rigged by foreigners and communists. The junta has been ratcheting up pressure on opponents for several weeks ahead of the anniversary. Last week, it announced it had detained three people it charged with being opposition activists. According to opposition groups, the junta has in the past two weeks arrested 32 NLD members and 29 monks who led a peaceful demonstration in the southern city of Mergui. Government sources have denied there was any demonstration in Mergui, or that any monks were arrested there. The military has been in control of Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, in various guises since 1962. It has branded Aung San Suu Kyi a traitor and an agent of foreign countries, especially former colinial ruler Britain.
First-ever ILO mission meets Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar ministersYANGON, May 26 (AFP) - A delegation of the International Labour Organisation (ILO) on a discreet first-ever visit to Yangon has met with Aung San Suu Kyi and high-ranking government officials, government and opposition sources said Friday. Neither the ILO nor the Myanmar government have commented on the mission, but sources told AFP the ILO's three-man delegation met with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, the Myanmar junta's labour minister and other ministerial level officials. The ILO mission was expected to discuss with the junta and the opposition implementation of ILO recommendations against forced labour, alleged to be widely practiced in Myanmar. Diplomatic and business sources previously told AFP they expected representatives of the junta to take ILO officials to visit several jails and factories. Though it has not made any official comment, Myanmar's ruling junta Wednesday had lashed out at the ILO as an undignified organization controlled by big powers. The state-controlled newspaper New Light of Myanmar dismissed the ILO mission, saying the organisation "had lost its dignity" because it has abandoned its "main function of setting down norms for workers' rights." Instead, the New Light said, the ILO simply promotes the agendas of "new colonialists" such as Britain and the United States, who try to apply political pressure on Myanmar. Diplomatic sources had said the Myanmar government's simultaneous slamming of the ILO while allowing the organization into Yangon seemed "counterproductive," but added that the junta becomes extremely defensive on labor issues. An ILO commission of enquiry in a report in August 1999 found compulsory labour in Myanmar was practised in a "systematic manner with a total disregard for the human dignity, safety and health" of the people. The ILO governing body ordered Myanmar's case to be raised at the organisation's assembly in June 2000, and in March invoked for the first time an ILO article allowing it to recommend measures to oblige the offending party to comply. It recommended that the Myanmar government ensure that its legislation is brought into line with the terms of the 1930 forced labour convention which Myanmar has ratified. It also urged the eradication of forced labour in the country and called for rigorous prosecution and punishment of those found guilty of exacting forced labour. The Myanmar goverment had previously described ILO reports as partisan and biased. Yangon's junta stands accused of a catalogue of human rights abuses including rape, torture and holding political prisoners. The United States and the European Union enforce a range of punitive sanctions including trade and visa bans. Friday, May 26 6:24 PM SGT India's far east wants World War II Indo-China road re-openedGUWAHATI, India, May 26 (AFP) - Provincial chiefs from India's far east urged New Delhi on Friday to boost border trade with South Asia by re-opening the historic World War II Stilwell Road, linking the region with China via Myanmar. "We have already asked the union government to reopen the Stilwell Road. Next month all the regional chief ministers shall meet the prime minister and urge him to clear the proposal," Mukut Mithi, chief minister of Arunachal Pradesh, told AFP. The 1,079-mile (1,726-kilometer) Stilwell Road was used by Allied Forces during World War II. It starts at Assam, in the heart of India's north-east, and cuts through the Pangsau pass in Myanmar to Kunming in South China. It touches almost all the important South Asian capitals. The provivial chiefs are unanimous in their opinion that allowing business along the international border would bring economic prosperity to the underdeveloped region, which is wracked by insurgency. "Free-trade with the South Asian countries and India's north-east region would be possible with the re-opening of the Stilwell Road," Mithi said. "Our region would then have the potential to become the hub of business activities and the gateway to South Asian economic centres." Assam chief minister, Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, echoed the same sentiment. "Once border trade gets going, there will be lots of avenues for youth and in that way frustrated young people will then opt for running businesses instead of taking up arms because of a lack of employment," Mahanta said. Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had earlier assured the provincial chiefs that his government would look into the possibility of allowing border trade with neighbouring South Asian countries. Vajpayee said the move could provide a ready market for agricultural produce from the north-east. Following the signing of a trade agreement between India and Myanmar in 1995, border trade takes place on a daily basis only at Moreh in Manipur, in India's north-east. Indian automobile components, fruits, grains, vegetables, textiles and cotton yarn find a strong demand in almost all the neighbouring countries. In the other direction, Indian traders are strongly interested in importing electronic gadgets, synthetic blankets, teak, gold, and semi-precious stones. Assam, the gateway to the north-east, is about 2,000 kilometresmiles) from the Indian capital New Delhi and some 3,000 kilometresmiles) from the country's biggest commercial centre, Bombay. Rangoon, Bangkok and even some Chinese cities are much closer to most north-eastern states than Delhi or Bombay. For instance, Kunming in China is only 1,079 kilometers (668 miles) from Ledo in Assam where the Stilwell Road begins. The pushing for road links to South East Asia, provincial chiefs have pointed out that only 250 kilometres (155 miles) out of the north-easts 5,000 kilometre (3,100 mile) outer perimeter touches India. The remaining 4,750 kilometre (2,945 miles) represents international boundaries with China, Myanmar, Bhutan, Bangladesh, China, and Nepal. Bangkok Post - May 26, 2000. Refugees seen as a menaceSupamart
Kasem The 80,000-plus Burmese refugees in
Tak and Mae Hong Son provinces are a security concern as they regularly sneak
out of camps to conduct illegal activities, Third Army commander Watanachai
Chaimuanwong said yesterday. "Burmese refugees from many camps sneak out to fell trees for Thai and
hilltribe timber poachers. There are also thieves and drug addicts among them,
and they are a crime problem in towns and bordering villages," he said. The commander met senior administrators in the Mae Sot district of Tak
yesterday to listen to problems caused by the refugees. Those present included
deputy governor Veeradet Surasit and the chiefs of five border districts. Thailand has proposed some measures to control the exiles but the United
Nations High Commission for Refugees simply disagreed, Lt-Gen Watanachai
said. One suggestion was to build fences around the refugee camps, but the UNHCR
said it would make them look like prisons. "Actually, Thai homes do have fences," he said. "Thailand has been helping the refugees for humanitarian reasons in line with
UNHCR policy, but allowing them too much freedom has resulted in problems,
including violation of Thai laws," Lt-Gen Watanachai said. He will discuss the problem with UNHCR representatives in Phitsanulok
province tomorrow. He also confirmed that the Third Army would not let Burmese
ethnic troops use Thai soil to attack Burmese soldiers. The Nation - May 26, 2000. EDITORIAL: An anniversary that none want
to celebrate
IT has been 10 years of torment watching the frustrated democratic
aspirations of the valiant Burmese people. Ten years ago today the Burmese junta
leaders cheated their people out of the government that they democratically
elected. Since then they have clung to power against the will of the Burmese
people and the wishes of the international community. Worse, Asean has welcomed
the pariah state into its ranks in defiance of world opinion.
Over recent decades the Burmese people have shown extraordinary courage. They
have demonstrated against the junta and fought its heavily-armed military in a
vain effort to restore democracy and allow a better standard of living.
Students, skipping classes to attend rallies, held their heads high and were
gunned down. The survivors fled to the Thai-Burmese border, their aspirations
intact and ever more solid.
Throughout this difficult time, the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi has remained
the symbol of the struggle between the democratic forces and the repressive
military regime. She might not have succeed in her aims, but she has not given
up despite great personal suffering. Her willpower has manifested in the real
nature of the Burmese junta being shown to the world. As the Burmese and their
supporters pass through this trying anniversary, besieged by moral fatigue, she
must fight on.
The Burmese, including Suu Kyi, must not be blamed for the failure to have
their dream of a democracy materialise. The region and the world at large must
take responsibility as well for their plight. Asean, instead of opprobrium, has
given the junta leaders a warm welcome. Joining the grouping was another coup
for the generals as it burnishes their tainted image and glosses over their
atrocities. But the three years since that happened have been anything but
pleasant for Asean. There has been nothing in the way of progress on democracy
in Burma, while living conditions have continued to deteriorate. Asean has been
putting on a brave face, yet internally it is suffering an unpleasant moral
dilemma. This stigma will continue to be with the region as long as Burma
remains as intransigent as it is.
Similarly, the world community has not done enough to help. Western countries
have their own agendas, and some do not fit in the scheme of things. Rhetoric is
in plentiful supply but real help does not come easy. The European Union, though
it hangs tough, is also uncoordinated in its action. Asian powers are
accomplices of the Burmese junta for economic reasons. The Chinese and Japanese
governments condone the junta's behaviour obviously for economic and strategic
interest.
Without a concerted coalition of East and West against the junta, little
change can be expected. With Asean providing the generals with a leg to stand
on, it will continue to be difficult to topple one of the world's most unpopular
regimes.
Burma's neighbour, Thailand, is not doing its job either. There has been a
lot of talk from Thai leaders over the years, but absolutely no action. The
junta has been able to divide and rule Thai policy towards Burma and is
continuing to do so today unabated. The economic interest continues to mar our
leaders' vision of a democratic neighbour.
The generals know the Thais well because so many have a stake in maintaining
the status quo in Burma. Now, facing the biggest drug threat in this country's
history, our leaders, in typical tub-thumping style, are vowing tough counter
measures. But in Thai-Burmese ties, talk is cheap. Unless someone really does
take this cross-border drug trade seriously, Thailand could become a zombie
nation under an avalanche of ya-ba (crazy drug) from Burma. Burma has succeeded
in undermining Thailand ever since it burnt down Ayudhya, and now through drugs
it could cause catastrophic damage to its old adversary.
In the end one has to ask why such an evil regime is able to stay in power
for so long. But there is no need to look far for an answer. It is because the
region and the world have yet to come to their senses. May Suu Kyi and the
Burmese people live and fight on to remind us of our hypocrisy.
The Nation - May 26, 2000. FROM THE EDGE: Burmese junta tightens grip
on tiger's back
AFTER 38 years of military rule, will Burma ever see the dawn of democracy
without another round of bloodshed? Despite continuing optimism from key
pro-democracy Burmese dissidents, the answers from most political observers,
diplomats and even ethnic Burmese guerrillas are sadly negative.
Since the current junta's bloody coup in 1988, which suppressed massive
pro-democracy protests and, ironically, took power from a military predecessor,
every domestic and international effort to make a peaceful transition to
democracy has hit an iron wall.
The ruling generals - who initially banded together under the State Law and
Order Restoration Council, later renamed the State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC) - have been defiant. The regime has rejected sensible arguments that
Burma cannot expect to attain international recognition without democratic
reforms and respect for human rights. Instead, the junta has embarked on a
series of political and economic campaigns which are aimed only at prolonging
its own existence.
The junta organised, exactly 10 years ago today, a multi-party general
election. The stunning victory of the popular National League for Democracy
(NLD) over the military's preferred party came as a shock and the regime
promptly restricted the newly elected MPs to the mere task of writing the
country's new Constitution. The drafting, which began in early 1993, has become
a foot-dragging process with no end in sight.
The NLD's repeated calls for dialogue to end the country's political turmoil
have fallen on deaf ears. The SPDC adamantly rejects the legitimacy given to the
party by the 45 million Burmese people. Instead, the military regime has
arrested, tortured, and imprisoned thousands of NLD MPs, leaders, members and
supporters across Burma and, in many cases, forced them to resign from the party
in exchange for their freedom.
While refusing to talk with the NLD, the regime, again ironically, held talks
with over a dozen armed ethnic groups, several of which have thrived on the
narcotics trade.
The general public has not been free from the regime's harassment and its
policy mismanagement. Potential dissidents are quickly harassed or arrested.
Young men and women are rounded up for forced labour on the battlefield. The
young are denied proper education because higher learning institutionsremain
closed as hotbeds for student uprisings. Monks and religious centres have been
placed under close watch as they too can revolt. Economic programmes haven't
truly benefited the grassroots, and foreign capital and income usually go to
support the regime's plan to strengthen its military might.
In border areas, ethnic populations have been uprooted. With their homes and
farmlands destroyed, villagers have no choice but to take flight either into the
jungle or across the border to Burma's neighbouring states. Those less fortunate
are relocated to tightly watched areas under the control of the Burmese Army.
Despite all the misery it has created, the SPDC remains unshaken, banking on
the false hope that its intransigence and resistance to international sanctions
will outlast political pressure from domestic democratic forces and the global
community, and that over time the world will give up on Burma.
In recent public statements, top NLD leaders including Nobel Peace Prize
laureate Aung San Suu Kyi remain optimistic for a peaceful transition to
democracy and urge the international community to pressure the SPDC to open a
political dialogue. But several political observers, including an Asian diplomat
who once served in Rangoon, said they see no sign of hope that Burma will attain
democracy without another popular revolt.
"Ahimsa [non-violence] works only in civilised nations," said the diplomat.
"Burma isn't such a case. Everything is so static and peaceful means have proven
fruitless all these years. What is likely to force change is a revolution."
In his view, every aspect of Burma - political, economic and social - has
been a "regression" in the past decade. There has been no freedom in whatever
form and people, including intellectuals, have been placed under tight watch and
control. Social and economic conditions have also gone downhill to near crisis.
At the same time, the international community - pro-sanction or pro-engagement -
is not united in a common voice and strategy to force the regime to give in.
Several senior Thai officials and Western Burma watchers shared the same
assessment of Burma's latest situation. According to them, the country is on the
verge of crisis and another major popular revolt might be in the making.
One noted that a trigger factor could be the food crisis. The SPDC's current
agricultural policy, in which farmers are taxed on the basis of their acreage
and not their harvests, constitutes bad government policy and incompetent
management.
"Things have to change in Burma, but the only thing that could effect
significant change in Burma is food production - a severe rice shortage,
especially in the cities," said the observer.
Several international economists and political activists are warning of a
potential food crisis in Burma as a result of bad government policies,
mismanagement and the SPDC's severe political repression. The popular uprising
of 1988 was partly the result of the country's worsening economy, and the
people's loss of patience with the regime's poor policies and mishandling of the
country's resources.
Radical Burmese and ethnic groups such as God's Army and the militant
Vigorous Burmese Student Warriors, which seized a Thai hospital in January until
all the captors were killed by Thai forces, have in recent years become
disillusioned with peaceful struggle. They vow to use whatever force is
available to end the regime and its brutality.
With popular discontent surging, the possibility of a confrontation is also
growing as the regime has not yet shown any sign of compromise.
"The regime is hanging on the back of a tiger," noted one observer. "They are
worried that if they loosen up, they will lose their grip and have no way to
go." At the same time, "people power works only when the government is not
prepared to be ruthless, but this Burmese regime is different," he added. "It is
prepared to use total force."
BY YINDEE LERTCHAROENCHOK
The Nation |