Wednesday, May 24 9:49 AM SGT

Myanmar's fate in hands of secretive junta

YANGON, May 24 (AFP) -

Myanmar's fate lies in the shifting political fortunes of a secretive core of generals, who have been at the epicentre of power for a decade and imposed uncompromising and often brutal military rule.

Ten years after Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition won an overwhelming election victory, little is known of the dynamics of power in Myanmar or of the rationale behind the junta's decisions.

But sources close to the military leadership have given AFP a rare glimpse behind the wall of secrecy surrounding the top leaders.

While the junta, known as the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), groups 19 high-ranking military officers and says it rules by consensus, power is dispensed by a dominant ruling troika, sources say.

Junta leader Senior General Than Shwe, 68, is military commander in chief, prime minister and defence minister and the junta's final arbiter.

The most visible of the troika is Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt, head of military intelligence. He is often the public face of the junta and behind its more outward looking policies, one of which was Myanmar's entry into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1997.

The third member of the troika is the least visible, but regarded by many observers as the heir apparent to Than Shwe and the man who may hold the fate of Myanmar's 47 million people in his hands.

General Maung Aye, 63, is deputy military commander and army chief but unlike Khin Nyunt avoids publicity and keeps his own counsel.

He is described by a member of the inner circle as a taciturn career soldier with years of combat experience against Chinese-backed communists in northern Myanmar.

"He feels very strongly about keeping the image of the military clean and doesn't care to delve too much in politics," said a source.

That reticence has encouraged a slither of hope among some observers who question whether Maung Aye will maintain the army's role at the forefront of politics if he wins supreme power.

Maung Aye's position is enhanced by his record in battle which earned him the loyalty of the army and spurred his rise to the top of the junta from his former job as head of eastern command.

Unlike other members of the SPDC, he is comfortable in English, a skill polished in lessons at the war office in Yangon, where the troika spends most nights after an assassination bid against junta collegue General Tin Oo several years ago.

Maung Aye's position at the top of the junta has been more open to scrutiny recently with indications that he is taking a growing role in running the economy, a move which has attracted unfavourable comment from diplomats.

"Even though Than Shwe has the final say, Maung Aye is behind most of the decisions on the economy -- he seems to change rules at will and to benefit his contacts, to the frustration of many local businessmen," said one diplomat.

Unlike Maung Aye, Khin Nyunt does not possess a formidable military pedigree and has seen less combat. He is however credited with securing a string of ceasefire agreements with Myanmar's myriad ethnic insurgencies.

But the head of military intelligence may owe his present power to the perception that he is the political protege of reclusive former dictator General Ne Win, 88, who ruled Myanmar in neo-socialist isolation between 1962 and 1988.

"The present leadership still defer to (Ne Win) when faced with important policy matters ... he's their father figure and few among them would consider going against his wishes," the source said.

But although he has an established network of support, Khin Nyunt may find it difficult to rise to the ultimate power, the source said.

"His military intelligence background and penchant to play politics discount him from getting the top military position ... but he will remain the man to be reckoned with even by the likes of Maung Aye."

The intentions of Than Shwe, who is rumoured to be keen to retire, are, like much of political life in Myanmar, unfathomable.

Many observers see him as a fulcrum between Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt, perched on a balance of power between their competing aspirations.

Than Shwe is expected to remain in power a little longer, at least as long as his health permits.

With the military in control of almost every aspect of life in Myanmar, and with little sign of its grip weakening, those hoping for change may have a long wait ahead.

BBC-Tuesday, 23 May, 2000, 17:44 GMT 18:44 UK
Total denies Burma allegations

The French oil company, Total, has denied charges of using slave labour in the construction of gas pipelines in Burma.

A Washington-based human rights and environmental group, EarthRights International, said on Monday that Total, and the American and British oil companies, Unocal and Premier, were profiting from slave labour and other human rights violations in Burma in building the gas pipelines.

A spokesman Michel Delaborde for Total in Paris said the company had known about the existence of slave labour before getting involved in the construction project, but had never used forced labourers itself.

He said Total worked to its own rules.

From the newsroom of the BBC World Service

Tuesday, May 23 4:06 PM SGT

Exiled Buddhist Group Repeats Threats Vs Myanmar Govt

BANGKOK (AP)--A group that said it represented Buddhist monks opposed to the military regime in Myanmar issued a second warning Tuesday that the government must begin talks with the democratic opposition or face unrest.

The first warning last month from the All Burma Young Monks' Union, whose exile base is in Thailand, gave the government until Thursday to begin talks or face mass protests.

The new letter from the monks' group urged foreign investors and tourists to leave the country immediately. It repeated plans to make monasteries the centers for protest strikes and to march on the capital, Yangon.

A spokesman for the British Embassy said it had issued no special security warnings and believed other embassies had done likewise.

The rumors are clearly being used as a form of psychological warfare to rattle a regime which is openly paranoid about dissent.

Since the monks' union issued its original letter last month, rumors about the possibility of unrest have circulated widely inside Myanmar opposition circles and among refugees in Thailand.

A government spokesman Monday denied the rumors, saying they were just stories planted by antigovernment activists.

Bangkok Post - May 24, 2000.

Burmese border factories wreaking havoc

Eradication efforts face uphill task

Supamart Kasem in Cae Sot, Tak
The mushrooming of drug factories along the border, particularly in areas controlled by Burma's minority groups, has hampered Thai efforts to eradicate illicit drugs, the Third Army chief said yesterday.

Gen Wattanachai Chaimuenwong, who heads the northern drug suppression office, said authorities were fighting a losing battle against the influx of drugs from neighbouring countries, especially speed pills.

"As long as drug factories remain along the border, it's an uphill task for our agencies to root out drugs," he said.

Despite Burma's co-operation, efforts to suppress drugs in areas controlled by Burmese ethnic minority rebels have been fruitless, Gen Wattanachai said. A source said there are three main drug factories near the border in Tak-one opposite Ban Walay in Phop Phra district and the other two opposite Ban Mae Konkaen and Ban Rai in Mae Sot district, respectively.

The pro-Rangoon Democratic Karen Buddhist Army was reportedly behind the smuggling of drugs into Thailand, with border areas in the lower North, especially in Tak, being their major routes, the source said.

The Straits Times - May 24, 2000.

Myanmar alerts workers to pitfalls abroad

YANGON -- Military-controlled Myanmar has started courses for workers going overseas, to educate them on foreign cultures and how to resist being influenced by alternative political ideologies.

Labour Minister General Tin Ngwe initiated the course for workers heading for Singapore, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates because Myanmar wanted to raise the number of workers travelling overseas, the Mirror daily said yesterday.

"Before leaving the country to work abroad it is necessary that you have a full understanding of the political situation there so that you may be constantly alert to ward off instigations by neo-colonialists and destructionists," the minister said.

Gen Tin said Myanmar hoped to use the skills gained by returning workers to speed up the pace of development. The Labour Ministry has sent some 4,000 workers overseas since 1990 and plans to increase that number dramatically, he said. -- AFP

The Nation - May 24, 2000.

Shan request Thai aid in peace talks

LOI TAILANG, Burma - The military leader of the ethnic Shan rebels in Burma has pleaded with Thailand to help negotiate an official ceasefire between the ruling junta and opposition groups.

Colonel Yawd Serk, leader of the Shan State Army (SSA), believes Thailand is in the best position to bridge the gap between the opposing sides and bring long-awaited peace to Burma.

Thais have long been known to be closely related to the Shan, or Thai Yai. Historically, both share their racial origins from the Tai people.

"We would like Thailand to help ethnic minorities enter formal peace negotiations with the State Peace and Development Council [SPDC]," said Yawd Serk, speaking on the 42nd anniversary of the Shan revolution against Rangoon.

"They [Thailand] could perhaps be the host of such a meeting," he added.

The SSA was always ready to talk peace with the SPDC - the highest echelon of Burma's ruling junta - and had sent a message indicating its earnest intentions, he said.

But instead of responding in kind, Yawd Serk said, the generals in Rangoon had dispatched 20 battalions to pursue his troops. "We still wait for their reply but until then we will continue to fight," he added.

The message called on Rangoon to work together with other ethnic rebels to solve the bloody conflict through peaceful means and avoid resorting to force. In addition, it also appealed for a ceasefire based on "acceptable" conditions.

The SSA is one of the major armed factions that have yet to agree a ceasefire with the Burmese government.

The rebel group said that despite its willingness to reach a peaceful settlement, it remained determined to achieve sovereignty and the right of self-determination.

Yawd Serk also called on the international community to take note of the plight of the Shan suffering under the oppressive rule of the Burmese military. The Shan, like other minority groups in Burma, had suffered terribly under the regime and were deprived of all fundamental rights, he said.

He also took a swipe at Asean's policy of constructive engagement, branding it "an utter failure".

The policy, which seeks to bring about gradual change to Burma, has come under constant criticism from various quarters as a euphemism for economic exploitation and a vaunted attempt to show Asean's independence from Western influence. Burma was admitted as an Asean member in 1997.

The SSA leader also called for more international assistance in its effort to eradicate drug production in the Shan state, which is part of the infamous Golden Triangle.

"We will continue fighting narcotics within our own capability, but we cannot completely annihilate it," he said, adding a political solution was necessary since Rangoon was known to be in complicity with drug barons.

He added that Bangkok, fighting its own war against an influx of methamphetamines from Burma, should cooperate with the SSA to make the crackdown more effective.

"They [the Thai government] should separate their Burma policy from their narcotics policy," he said.

BY VORAPUN SRIVORANART

The Nation - May 25, 2000.

The sad and frightening tenth anniversary of Burma’s election

Burma’s military rulers appear determined to crush the winners of the 1990 general election in preparation for a new election that they intend to dominate, writes Khin Maung Win.

May 27 is the 10th anniver¬sary of the first multiparty general election in Burma since 1960. The ruling mil¬itary junta, the State Peace and Devel¬opment Council (SPDC), has been vig¬orously trying to eliminate the validity of the 1990 general election results, sim¬ply because the elections were won by prodemocracy parties. In the election, the National League for Democracy (NLD) won 392 seats out of 485 (81 per cent), the juntabacked National Unity Party captured only 10 seats or 2 per cent, and the remaining seats were taken by 25 other parties.

A careful analysis of the SPDC’s manoeuvrings shows that the junta has developed a master plan to systematically eliminate the results of the 1990 general elections. The plan has two steps. The first is to eliminate most active political parties and dismiss or disqualify elect¬ed representatives. The second is to organise a new general election and ensure the victory of those the junta wants to win.

To eliminate active political parties and elected MPs, the junta has devised “legal grounds” to support its allegations that certain political parties have broken existing laws. Perhaps the most notorious law in Burma is Section 5(j) of the 1950 Emergency Provisions Act. This law states that it is an offence to infringe upon the integrity, health, conduct or respect of military organisations and govern¬ment employees, to spread false news about the government, or to disrupt morality. The penalty is a fine, seven years in prison, or both. It is estimated that about 90 per cent of political pris¬oners, including elected representatives, are imprisoned under this law.

Burma’s Unlawful Association Act allows the government to declare any organisation unlawful by its interpre¬tation of vague provisions within the Act. The Act also empowers the author¬ities detain any person through the uni¬lateral judgement of the authorities that the person is supporting or communi¬cating with an unlawful organisation. Many political parties, including those successful in the 1990 election, have been deregistered or declared unlawful under this law.

A total of 93 political parties contest¬ed the May 1990 general election. Twen¬ty out of the 27 successful parties have been dissolved by the Election Com¬mission or SPDC. Therefore, not less than 38 elected representatives from those parties became partyless repre¬sentatives who later were dismissed from the status of being elected on the ground that they lack party affiliation.

After the junta’s dissolution or silenc¬ing of other political parties, the NLD remains the only political party subject to harassment by the junta. When the NLD leadership in mid1998 determined to convene a People’s Parliament of elected representatives after waiting for eight years for that opportunity, the SPDC intensified harassment of the NLD. As almost all elected representa¬tives have been arrested or are under detention in socalled government guest houses, the NLD and a few other win¬ning parties in September 1998 formed the Committee Representing People’s Parliament to carry out tasks of a Peo¬ple’s Parliament until the first session of an elected parliament is held.

Despite such harassment, the NLD is still alive at least to challenge the ille¬gal activities of the SPDC and to echo the validity of the 1990 general election results. The first step of the junta’s mas¬ter plan has not been completed. There is a need for the SPDC to introduce new methods to complete the first step before moving to the second step.

The junta’s second step is organising a new general election. This coincides with the promulgation of a new Con¬stitution. In late 1990, the junta redefined the meaning of the 1990 gener¬al election. This was done through Order No 1/90, which has effect as a law, stat¬ing that those who were elected in the May 1990 general elections are respon¬sible only for drafting a State Consti¬tution. However, it is obvious that junta itself does not comply with the terms of Order No 1/90 because those elected in the 1990 general elections have not been given a chance to draft such a Consti¬tution. Due to the junta’s absolute con¬trol of the National Convention, a con¬stitution drafting assembly, the NLD boycotted the Convention in 1995.

When almost all elected MPs are dis¬qualified and the NLD is paralysed, the SPDC will most surely promulgate a new Constitution, and a statement fol¬lowing it saying that it is time for the organisation of a new general election. Therefore, the main intention of pro¬mulgating a new Constitution is to undermine the 1990 general election results that are still legally valid.

The first step has been underway for ten years, and the junta is now wondering how they are going to complete it.

According to the Democratic Voice of Burma, a Norwaybased Burmese lan¬guage radio, SPDC Home Minister Colonel Tin Hlaing in April directed all the regional police chiefs and the com¬mandants of riot control police battalions to employ all administrative techniques to completely crush the NLD this year. Socalled “administrative techniques” simply empower the authorities to use whatever measures necessary to crush the NLD. It is foreseeable that the harassment of the NLD will become more blatant and obvious than ever. The SPDC, which promises the world that it will restore democracy in Burma, seems to have determined to totally crush the party that succeeded in the last general election, an election that the junta itself sponsored.

------------------ Khin Maung Win is an executive committee member of the Burma Lawyers’ Council.

BBC-Wednesday, 24 May, 2000, 09:03 GMT 10:03 UK
Burmese forced labour under scrutiny

The International Labour Organisation's first-ever mission to Burma has arrived in Rangoon to discuss the issue of forced labour with the military government.

The ILO has accused Burma of the widespread and systematic use of forced labour and said it will urge the military government to ban the practice and presecute those who've enforced it.

Earlier, Burma criticised the organisation, saying it had strayed from its main purpose of setting standards for workers' rights and had become a vehicle for the interests of colonialist western powers.

From the newsroom of the BBC World Service

The Nation - May 25, 2000.

Junta to help in refugee repatriation

BURMA has agreed to help repatriate some 100,000 refugees living along the border camps within three years, the head of the National Security Council, Kachadpai Burusapatana, told reporters yesterday.

The statement marked the first time that Burma has agreed to a timeframe in the repatriation of these refugees, most of whom are ethnic Karens.

Kachadpai said the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees would be requested to assist in the repatriation. The UN refugee agency has a policy of not repatriating refugees to danger zones and insists that the returnees must be allowed to return voluntarily and in a dignified manner.

Burma, one of the most ethnically diverse country in Asia, has for decades engaged in a civil war with its armed minority groups fighting for autonomy. This fighting has forced many of the villagers living on the border to cross over into Thailand. The military government in Rangoon has signed a number of ceasefire agreements with most of the rebel armies, but there is no indication that a political settlement will be reached with the remaining armed groups – the Karen National Union and the Shan State Army.

The Nation

Burma Related News - May 24, 2000.

Myanmar's fate in hands of secretive junta

Exiled Buddhist Group Repeats Threats Vs Myanmar Govt

Burmese border factories wreaking havoc