"The violence since 25 August that has driven 270,000 Rohingya civilians over Myanmar?s border into Bangladesh is not just causing a humanitarian catastrophe. It is also driving up the risks that the country?s five-year-old transition from military rule will stumble, that Rohingya communities will be radicalised, and that regional stability will be weakened... Since 2012, the International Crisis Group repeatedly has warned that, if left unresolved, Rakhine State?s volatile dynamics pose a major risk to Myanmar?s transition. If dealt with primarily through a heavy-handed, indiscriminate security response, rather than in the framework of a political strategy, the dangers were clearly set to become far worse. The events of recent weeks are not just causing enormous suffering to civilians, but bring Myanmar precipitously close to just such an unraveling of much that has been achieved since the end of military rule. The 25 August attacks on Myanmar security forces by the militant group Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), also known as Harakah al-Yaqin, which the government has designated a terrorist group, undoubtedly were intended as a provocation. Neither these attacks nor the reported killing of non-Rohingya civilians, at least some of which are undoubtedly the work of the group, are excusable, no matter what political agenda they claim to represent. Any government has the responsibility to defend itself and the people living in the country. At the same time, such government security responses need to be proportionate and not target civilians..."