Description:
Conclusion: "Since the end of the bipolar system and the
rise of globalization, the world has become
interconnected and interdependent through
culture, economy, and the polity. In order to
provide an accurate strategic foresight of
Sino-Myanmar relations, it is necessary to
understand the historical and present
context, national ambitions, and the current
means available to achieve these goals. At
the same time, to offer a precise forecast,
there is a need to hypothesize the possible
obstacles to these ambitions.
The paper concludes that the period of the
next 5-10 years, from a Chinese standpoint,
will be one of balancing between securing its
economic investment through bilateral
relations between China and ethnic groups,
China and the Junta, and its wish for
stronger involvement in the political arena.
In this quest, China will outbid all other
players; provide economic assistance;
infrastructure building; and a political
umbrella to the international community.
Nonetheless, China will have to face certain
obstacles to achieve these goals, mainly the
growing resentment of local Chinese
presence in Myanmar; border instability;
weak Myanmar governance; and stronger
international sanctions.
Alternatively, from a Myanmarese
standpoint, due to the Junta?s controversial
history, it wants to prove to the regional and
international community that it is a
legitimate government. Through the Seven
Step Roadmap to Democracy and the
election later this year, the Junta wants to
show its credibility as the government of
Myanmar. The Junta has been successful at
making regional actors compete for its
natural resources and its strategic
importance works in its favor. When China,
India, and ASEAN compete for access to
Myanmar, they are supporting the Junta
with financially, which gets translated into
political support. Also, the Junta does not
want foreign involvement in its national
affairs. Therefore, it purposely keeps a low
profile in the international arena. The
obstacles to the achievement of Myanmar?s
goals would be an increase in international
criticism that would pressure China to
further influence the Junta, and ethnic
groups uniting against the government,
which would weaken furthermore the
credibility of the Junta.
In conclusion, in the near future, China?s
economic thirst will be challenged by its
wish to become a regional and international
superpower on the one hand, and on the
other, Myanmar?s Junta will try to convince
its neighbors and the world that its
government is legitimate..."
Source/publisher:
Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies - Delhi (IPCS Research Paper 26)
Date of Publication:
2010-09-00
Date of entry:
2010-11-16
Grouping:
- Individual Documents
Category:
Language:
English
