"China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to attract much comment. To some, it is a threat – proof that China’s aim is to extend Chinese global influence. To others, it is a useful contribution to global capital flows. Where does the balance lie between these two views? Three issues, particularly, are worth considering: the size of the BRI program; the place of BRI in capital flows to developing countries; and the likely political gains to China from supporting the program. First, in reality, it seems impossible to obtain much meaningful information on the true size of the BRI. But what does is clear is that many of the extravagant statements about likely spending through the program are wildly unreliable. There are references to spending plans of a trillion dollars (or so) over periods of ten years or more in various reports of “commitments” made in various Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs). But vague references of this sort of thing are virtually meaningless in economic terms. Commitments are not the same thing as project approvals. Many “commitments in principle” never come to anything. In any case, MOUs are a dime-a-dozen after ministerial meetings around the world..."