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BurmaNet News: November 14, 2001

______________ THE BURMANET NEWS ______________
        An on-line newspaper covering Burma 
          November 13, 2001   Issue # 1918
______________ www.burmanet.org _______________

*AFP: Two sacked Myanmar generals under interrogation, de facto house 
*AP: Myanmar revamps military hierarchy after sacking senior officials 

MONEY _______
*AP: FAO: Don't blame logging alone for high rate of deforestation 

*Times of India: 200 Manipur insurgents held in Myanmar 
*DVB: Army directed to tighten security ahead of reshuffle Army directed 
to tighten security ahead of reshuffle

*Bangkok Post: Revitalising the anti-drug battle

*AFP: US, French officials meet Myanmar junta leader 
*AFP: World trade talks, forced labour in Myanmar, on ILO agenda 
*Reuters: UN envoy plans Myanmar visit
*AFP: UN envoy Razali Ismail to pursue Myanmar reforms in November visit 

*Xinhua: Myanmar Striving for Child Rights: Minister
*Dictatorwatch.org: Summary Prognosis for Burma

__________________ INSIDE BURMA ____________________

AFP: Two sacked Myanmar generals under interrogation, de facto house 

YANGON, Nov 13 (AFP) - Two top members of Myanmar's junta who were 
sacked on the weekend under suspicion of corruption have been confined 
to their homes and interrogated over their business dealings, sources 
said Tuesday. 

 The third secretary of the ruling State Peace and Development Council, 
Lieutenant-General Win Myint, and Military Affairs Minister 
Lieutenant-General Tin Hla are under de facto house arrest in the 
capital of Yangon, they said. 

 "Although officially it has not been admitted yet, everybody knows this 
is to do with corruption," said a source close to the junta. 

 "There is a corruption case going on and they are being investigated. 
It stands to reason that when they are being investigated their 
movements would be confined." 

 The two generals were among seven high-ranking officials fired in a 
sweeping reshuffle believed to be aimed at rooting out endemic 
corruption and injecting fresh blood into the ageing leadership.
 Both Win Myint and Tin Hla had been deeply involved in the economic 
workings of the military state and headed its state business enterprises 
-- Myanmar Economic Holdings and Myanmar Economic Corporation.
 Diplomats said the pair, who virtually held the nation's purse strings, 
had been punished for rampant corruption that eventually drew the ire of 
Malaysia -- one of the regime's few foreign allies. 

 The junta source said the investigation was likely to delve into recent 
business dealings and acquisitions, including Tin Hla's purchase of a 
plot of land near the capital's Inya Lake worth some 500,000 dollars. 

 Diplomats said the pair were under intense surveillance by military 
intelligence officers. 

 "The two men are not officially under house arrest but they are under 
investigation and surveillance which means they have no freedom to go 
outside their homes. There are guards outside their houses," one said. 

 Another Western diplomat said the latest action indicated that their 
wrongdoing could be more serious than a simple case of corruption. 

 "Maybe they had been discovered to have taken vast amounts of hard cash 
out of the country or something like that, although I would suspect it 
was related to the initial charge of dodgy dealings." 

 The sackings appears to be a repeat of a dramatic and unprecedented 
1997 sweep when four ministers -- for trade, tourism, agriculture and 
transportation -- were fired after foreign investors accused them of 

 In that case too, the offending officials were detained and their 
assets confiscated. To this day they remain under surveillance and their 
movements are curtailed. 

 Another development causing a stir in Yangon are signs that nine 
regional commanders have been brought to the capital to fill the 
ministerial and military posts vacated by the seven sacked officials. 

 There is speculation that the 10 extremely powerful regional posts 
might be consolidated to just four, controlling the country's north, 
south, east and west. 

 "There's some kind of major shake-up of the top army structure 
underway," one diplomat said. 

 The departure of Win Myint -- the regime's fourth-ranking general and 
the most senior ever to be sacked -- also leaves another vacancy at the 
top after the death of Second Secretary Tin Oo in a helicopter crash 
earlier this year. 

 There is a possibility the regime's top-five could now be permanently 
reduced to a ruling troika headed by Senior General Than Shwe. 

 Observers say this could strengthen the hand of Secretary One Khin 
Nyunt, the chief of military intelligence who is believed to be guiding 
the junta's historic year-long talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu 

 The international community is cautiously optimistic the talks could be 
paving the way for some sort of democratic reforms in Myanmar, which has 
been under military rule since 1962. 



AP: Myanmar revamps military hierarchy after sacking senior officials 

November 13, 2001

YANGON, Myanmar (AP) _ In the most significant revamp of Myanmar's 
military regime in four years, 10 powerful regional army commanders are 
to be reassigned to the capital, military sources said Tuesday. 

 All will be promoted to the rank of lieutenant general and take up 
positions in the Ministry of Defense, a senior military officer, who did 
not want to be named, told The Associated Press. 

 Analysts said the moves are likely to accord the commanders more 
privileges, but probably less power and autonomy. It indicates that the 
ministry in the capital was expanding and consolidating its strength, 
they said. 

 The reassignments, which have yet to be officially announced, follow 
the surprise dismissals last week of seven top officials including the 
junta's fourth ranking general Lt. Gen. Win Myint and deputy prime 
minister Lt. Gen. Tin Hla, who was also minister for military affairs. 

 Also sacked were two aging deputy prime ministers while three other 
ministers were ``permitted to retire.'' 

 The government has given no reasons for the changes. 

 It is the biggest shake-up of the regime since November 1997, when the 
original junta, the State Law and Order Restoration Council, or SLORC, 
was dissolved and renamed the State Peace and Development Council, with 
younger officials drafted in to replace corrupt and old military 

 Myanmar's 12 regional commanders are all members of the elite 16-member 
SPDC, but the council is dominated by its three top generals _ junta 
leader Senior Gen. Than Shwe, army chief Gen. Maung Aye and military 
intelligence chief, Lt. Gen. Khin Nyunt. However, in their areas of 
control in the provinces, the regional commanders are very powerful. 

 The Cabinet of ministers is appointed separately and is much less 

 Myanmar, also known as Burma, has been ruled by its military since 
1962. It has faced international condemnation for alleged human rights 
abuses and refusing to honor the 1990 landslide election victory of 
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who is currently under house 
detention in Yangon. 

 It was not yet clear if the 10 regional commander positions had been 
filled yet, or whether the incumbents would retain their positions in 
the SPDC. 

 Only two of the current regional military commanders will remain in 
their posts: Brig. Gen. Myint Swe, at the southeastern command, and 
Brig. Gen. Aye Kywe, at the coastal region command, military sources 

 Among those being moved to Yangon is Maj. Gen. Thiha Thura Tin Aung 
Myint Oo, the commander of the northeastern military region in the 
northern Shan State. He will replace Tin Hla as army quartermaster 
general, the senior officer said. 

 Also, Maj. Gen. Thein Sein, commander of the Triangle region _ where 
the borders of Laos, Myanmar and Thailand meet _ replaces Win Myint as 
adjutant general, the officer said. 

 Of the other eight regional commanders being promoted, four will become 
chiefs of special operations bureaus and four will take up the positions 
of chief of military training, chief of air defense, chief of military 
procurement and military inspector general. 

 At least some of these positions were new and it did not appear that 
other top officers were being forced to step down to make way for the 
outgoing regional commanders. 


AP: FAO: Don't blame logging alone for high rate of deforestation 

November 13, 2001

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) Forests in Southeast Asia are disappearing at an 
alarming rate, but logging alone is not to blame as is widely done, the 
U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said Tuesday. 

 The main causes of deforestation are forest fires and conversion of 
forest land for agriculture such as the slash-and-burn method used in 
Indonesia and the Philippines, Patrick Durst, the senior forestry 
officer of the FAO, told reporters. 

 He said that deforestation, seen mostly in developing countries, is the 
result of increasing population and poverty. 

 ``When people have opportunities to make money from something other 
than the forest .... they often take that opportunity,'' he said. 

 ``The best solution to the deforestation problem is economic 
development,'' he told a news conference to release a report of a study 
commissioned by the FAO on the impact of logging on natural forests in 

 The report says governments in the region have banned logging mostly as 
a knee-jerk reaction to activists calling for action, usually after 
flash floods caused by soil erosion. 

 The logging bans are ``an extreme measure with sometimes unpredictable 
or unintended impacts,'' says the report titled ``Forests out of 

 It says that often logging ban in one country results in increased 
logging in neighboring countries where enforcement is lax, such as in 
Cambodia and Myanmar, which supply illicit timber to Thailand. Logging 
ban also encourages corruption and deprives livelihoods to poor forest 
dwellers, it says. 

 ``A key conclusion to be drawn from the Asia-Pacific experience is that 
logging bans are neither inherently good nor bad,'' says the report on 
the study conducted over 2 1/2 years in China, New Zealand, Philippines, 
Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam. 

 According to the FAO, Southeast Asia is losing forests five times 
faster than the global net annual forest loss of 0.2 percent experienced 
worldwide between 1990 and 2000. 

 Even after the logging bans were imposed, the forest cover had reduced 
in four out of the six countries studied by the FAO. 

 The biggest loser was the Philippines where the forest cover reduced 
from 38.4 
percent of the country's total land in 1980 to 19.4 percent in 2000. 
Philippines banned logging in 1991. In Thailand, only 28.9 percent of 
the total land is covered by forest at present, compared to 36.4 percent 
in 1980 even though logging was banned in 1989. 

 Logging bans are ``simply one set of policy tools'' available to 
governments that should be adopted selectively and used with other 
policies, the report says. 
 ``Underlying all efforts there must be adequate support and resources _ 
including political will _ to follow through on clearly established 
goals and objectives,'' it says. 


Times of India: 200 Manipur insurgents held in Myanmar 

November 13, 2001
MPHAL: At least 200 United National Liberation Front (UNLF) insurgents, 
including some top ones, were arrested in Myanmar by its army during 
raids on underground camps close to the Manipur border recently, a 
defence release said here on Tuesday. 

About 1,400 weapons, Rs 1 crore cash and a huge quantity of gold and 
were seized from the camps during the raids conducted between November 2 
and November 8, it said. 

Among those arrested were 'vice chief', 'secretary general' and 'defence 
secretary', of the UNLF, secretary of the central bureau and general 
secretary of the eastern bureau of Revolutionary People's Front (RPF) 
and chairman of the Kangleipak Communist Party (KCP), the release said. 

The seized weapons included 72 mortars, 386 AK 47 rifles, and 10 
ammunition boxes.

The release said the special drive by the Myanmar army was still 
continuing along the Indo-Myanmar border. 

The army personnel were keeping a strict vigil on the border to detect 
movement of other underground members, the release said.

UNLF and RPF are active in Manipur under the banner of Manipur People's 
Liberation Front (MPLF) which also includes People's Revolutionary Party 
of Kangleipak (Prepak). The KCP operates separately. 

( PTI ) 


DVB: Army directed to tighten security ahead of reshuffle Army directed 
to tighten security ahead of reshuffle

According to latest reports received by DVB, the War Office in Rangoon 
has issued a directive yesterday, Saturday [10 November], to the 
regional military commands that the replacement for the seven top 
generals and ministers will be from among the regional military 
The positions vacated by the regional military commanders will be filled 
with divisional commanders and column commanders while their places, in 
turn, will be replaced by strategic commanders and tactical commanders. 
The Military Appointments General's Office has ordered the qualification 
sheets of present strategic commanders and tactical commanders to be 
sent to the office before 20 November.
At the same time, the battalions are also directed to have security 
awareness. The officers from the various military commands, divisions, 
battalions, and companies are warned to maintain close control over the 
soldiers and to inspect the weapons facilities and ordnance depots twice 
daily. Furthermore, the usage of ammunition and ordnance by the forces 
in the forward areas are to be reported daily and the officers are urged 
not to allow the soldiers to listen to any foreign radio stations.  

Source: Democratic Voice of Burma, Oslo, in Burmese 1430 gmt 11 Nov 01 


Bangkok Post: Revitalising the anti-drug battle

Tuesday 13 November 2001

The war on drugs hit the headlines against last week. The Thaksin 
government, which started off so well on this front, was shown to be 
lacking. The rash of violence by suspected drug-crazed men was troubling 
to all citizens. A young female student died in one incident, which saw 
enraged bystanders retaliate. An innocent pavement vendor was killed 
when a drug addict landed on her during his suicide. A helpless 
four-year-old was abducted from her own home and killed, apparently by a 
drug addict desperate for money. A TV crew in Nakhon Ratchasima taped a 
maniacal drug abuser as he cavorted on a high-tension power pole, before 
he fell and badly injured himself.

This cluster of dramatic incidents highlighted the serious, continuing 
problem in our society. Thaksin Shinawatra, a former policeman and 
trained criminologist, came to power with great promises of reducing and 
then eliminating drug trafficking and abuse. The past six months, 
however, appear to have accomplished little, if anything. In foreign 
affairs, after an initial confrontation, he has pandered to the Burmese 
authorities. At home, he has stopped speaking out on the country's most 
serious security threat. 

One can appreciate that Mr Thaksin has many responsibilities. But the 
battle against drugs is not just another problem. It is the chief threat 
to the security of the nation. Foreign drug traffickers routinely 
violate our borders. Big-time drug dealers bribe and control government 
officials and security agents with billions of ill-gotten baht. They 
threaten our very financial system through manipulation of the stock and 
property markets. 

The eruption of violence reminded everyone of the real, continuing cost 
to the country. Three entirely innocent people died by irrational acts 
committed by abusers.

The death of Kasetsart University student Jitra Ruamchareonchai at the 
hands of a clearly deranged man shocked everyone. Two days later, Luk-in 
Phut-eak died while sitting peacefully at her Klong Toey district 
lottery stall when an apparently crazed man leapt from the building 
above her. The abduction and killing of four-year-old Kanyarat 
Kanchanaot added to the nation's heartbreak.

The initial government response to last week's disturbing events has 
been as troubling as the needless, senseless violence. The prime 
minister, so outspoken and assertive earlier this year, made no initial 
statement. One of his deputy advisers announced Mr Thaksin was 
concerned. The response is to be yet another workshop, on Dec 7, so that 
officials can search for ideas on how to combat the menace.

How short are some memories? Mr Thaksin and his government led a series 
of such workshops earlier this year, shortly after Thai Rak Thai formed 
the government. A policy of sorts was set. Authorities were to conduct 
an inclusive campaign against drugs that combined legal crackdowns as 
well as community-oriented campaigns at schools and on the streets. 
Incidents like those of last week would be reduced because help would be 
provided to addicts.

The Thaksin cabinet appears to suffer from the same mistakes as previous 
governments. Ministers discuss the drug problem, agree that action is 
needed, and pass on to the next ``urgent'' difficulty. The drug 
traffickers love it. So does the Burmese regime. Rangoon has again taken 
the friendship of the Thai government as an excuse to continue its 
support for drug-producing friends in the north and northeast, 
particularly the Wa United State Army. It is not enough for the 
government to be concerned. A strong leader, taking strong action, will 
receive the full support of Thai people, who have suffered from drugs 
long enough.

___________________ REGIONAL/INTERNATIONAL___________________

AFP: US, French officials meet Myanmar junta leader 

BANGKOK, Nov 12 (AFP) - Senior delegations from the United States and 
France have held talks with the Myanmar junta's number three in Yangon, 
an official statement said Monday.
 The US delegation was headed by Deputy Assistant Secretary of State 
Matthew Daley and the French officials were led Dominique Girard, 
assistant secretary of the ministry of foreign affairs, according to the 

 Both missions called separately on the junta's number-three 
Lieutenant-General Khin Nyunt at the ministry of defence in capital 
Yangon last weekend, it said. 

 Khin Nyunt is the first secretary of the ruling State Peace and 
Development Council (SPDC), the official name of the military regime and 
he is also head of military intelligence. 

 The meetings were also attended by Myanmar deputy foreign minister Khin 
Maung Win as well as French ambassador Bernard du Chaffaut and US charge 
d'affaires Patricia Clapp, the report said without giving details of 
their discussions. 

 The United States and the European Union have imposed sanctions and 
investment restrictions on the Myanmar junta, which took power in 1988 
in a bloody military coup, until "definite and positive" progress is 
made towards restoring democracy. 

 It was the third trip to Myanmar by a US state department delegation 
this year. 

 Ralph Boyce, deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asian and 
Pacific affairs, visited Yangon in February and August. 

 During the first trip, Myanmar authorities allowed Boyce to meet 
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi at her compound, where she has been 
held under de facto house arrest since September last year. 


AFP: World trade talks, forced labour in Myanmar, on ILO agenda 

GENEVA, Nov 12 (AFP) - Globalisation of trade and forced labour in 
Myanmar are set to dominate the agenda of the bi-annual assembly of the 
International Labour Organisation (ILO) over the next four days. 

 Officials said that on Monday the 56-member ILO governing body would 
debate an ILO report on the social impact of globalisation, which 
coincides with attempts by 142 countries to launch a new round of trade 
liberalisation talks at the World Trade Organisation's ministerial 
conference in Doha, Qatar. 

 The report by an ILO working group on the social dimensions of 
globalisation counters assumptions about freer trade stimulating 
economic growth and says that they "rarely apply in the real world", 
according to an ILO statement. 

 It added that some developing countries have paid a heavy price to 
adjust to trade liberalisation, experiencing "a contraction in output, 
high unemployment and wide trade deficits". 

 The report follows calls at a Global Employment Forum organised by the 
ILO ten days ago for an international effort to minimise the social 
costs of trade liberalisation, "through measures such as prior analysis 
of their social impact", including the effects of price changes on the 
poor, the possible destruction of markets for poor producers and shifts 
in the demand for labour. 

 The governing body is also expected on Wednesday to examine a report by 
an ILO-appointed investigative team on forced labour in Myanmar, 
following a three-week mission there which ended at the beginning of 
October, a spokesman said. 

 The report by four independent experts, published last week, concluded 
that forced labour under military authorities continues in Myanmar even 
though the country officially outlawed the practice last year. 

 Myanmar has come under ILO scrutiny after a first investigation in 1998 
revealed the "widespread and systematic" use of forced labour in the 
country. The ILO had asked its members to "reconsider" their relations 
with Myanmar last year but decided to maintain permanent surveillance 
and contact with the authorities there. 

 The ILO is a tripartie organisation, bringing together 174 governments, 
as well as employers and labour representatives. 


Reuters: UN envoy plans Myanmar visit

YANGON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - United Nations special envoy to Myanmar 
Razali Ismail will return to the country at the end of this month in a 
fresh bid to unite the military government and opposition, a U.N. source 
said on Monday. 

 ``According to the tentative plan, Mr Razali will come here from 
November 27 to December 4,'' the source told Reuters. 

 She said the planned visit was still to be formally approved by 
Myanmar's military government. 

 Razali, a veteran Malaysian diplomat, has visited Myanmar four times 
since he took up a mandate to promote human rights and democracy in 
Myanmar in April 2000. 

 Razali last visited Myanmar in August and left saying he was hopeful of 
progress in the talks. 

 On each of his visits he has met senior military figures and opposition 
leaders, including Nobel laureate and leader of the National League for 
Democracy (NLD) Aung San Suu Kyi. 

 The NLD won Myanmar's last election in 1990 by a landslide but was 
never allowed to govern. 

 Suu Kyi has been under virtual house arrest for more than a year, 
despite having entered into secretive talks -- brokered by Razali -- 
with the governing State Peace and Development Council. 

 Since the talks began in late 2000, the SPDC has released 186 NLD 
members from detention and allowed the opposition party to reopen 25 
branch offices. 

 According to rights group Amnesty International, Myanmar's jails still 
hold more than 1,500 political prisoners. 

 The military has ruled Myanmar since 1962. 


AFP: UN envoy Razali Ismail to pursue Myanmar reforms in November visit 

YANGON, Nov 12 (AFP) - UN envoy Razali Ismail is to return to Myanmar 
later this month to pursue his mission of fostering historic talks 
between the junta and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, officials said 

 A UN official in Yangon said the Malaysian diplomat was tentatively 
scheduled to arrive on November 27 and leave on December 3 or 4. 

 "We haven't met with the government yet to discuss the program so it's 
never sure 100 percent sure until we have something clear from the 
government," she told AFP. 

 "He will be following on from the previous mission, and seeing 
basically the same people," she said, referring to Razali's August trip 
where he held talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and top 
junta officials. 

 Razali will "of course" again request a meeting with the Nobel peace 
laureate, who has been held under house arrest for the past year, she 

 The UN spokeswoman said it was not yet clear whether the sweeping 
cabinet reshuffle announced by the military regime over the weekend, 
where seven ministers were given their marching orders, would interfere 
in the planning. 

 Razali is credited with acting as a catalyst between the junta and the 
pro-democracy leader, and spurring efforts to bring the warring sides 
together during his six trips to Myanmar since June 2000. 

 He has apparently succeeded in winning the confidence of both sides of 
the political divide, and driven a process which the international 
community hopes will lead to democratic reforms after 40 years of 
military rule. 

 At his urging, some 186 pro-democracy dissidents have been released 
this year, although rights groups say some 1,500 more still languish in 
Myanmar's jails. 

 UN Secretary General Kofi Annan earlier this month called on the 
military regime to continue releasing political prisoners in order to 
consolidate the progress made this year. 

 "The national reconciliation process in Myanmar is at a crossroads," 
Annan said in a report to the United Nations General Assembly, and "more 
much needs to be done to make the process irreversible." 

 He commended the junta and Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the National 
League for Democracy (NLD) for entering a dialogue on democratisation, 
but said "the process is, however, still at the confidence-building 

 Annan noted "with regret" that Aung San Suu Kyi remained under house 
arrest and said he hoped that the year-long talks between the two sides 
"will soon lead to the restoration of her right to move freely around 
the country". 

 The report was based on the three visits which Razali, as Annan's 
special envoy, has made to Myanmar this year. 


Xinhua: Myanmar Striving for Child Rights: Minister

YANGON, November 12 (Xinhua) -- Myanmar has been striving for the rights 
of the children with whatever means and resources at its disposal, said 
President of the Myanmar Human Rights Committee Colonel Tin Hlaing 
Monday. Tin Hlaing, who is also home affairs minister, made the remarks 
at the opening of the first International Seminar on the Rights of Child 
in Myanmar, sponsored by the committee and the Center for Humanitarian 
Dialogue and organized by the International Institute for the Rights of 
the Child.

 He complained that before his country ratified the United Nations 
Convention on the Rights, it was facing the imposition of several 
sanctions by Western nations and hard pressed by internal matters. He 
told the seminar that Myanmar is cooperating now with other nations on 
international matters, having received the frequent visits of the 
special representative of the U.N. Secretary General, special rapporteur 
of the U.N. Human Rights Commission and the high level team of the 
International Labor Organization. He said, "all of these delegates have 
been allowed to go any where in the country and met any one they wish." 

He disclosed that 10 sessions of workshop on human rights have been held 
in Myanmar with the help of Australian, British and Swiss experts, 
adding that more workshops are being planned for next year. Myanmar 
ratified the U.N. Convention on the Rights of the Child on July 15, 
1991. The first report was submitted in 2000 and the second one is being 
reportedly prepared for submission in the near future. 


Dictatorwatch.org: Summary Prognosis for Burma

(extract of Burma and Chaos ? Updated, by Dictator Watch, 
As described below, it is unlikely that Burma will achieve democracy in 
the foreseeable future: at least five to ten years. The reasons for this 

- The structures that support the dictatorship are far stronger than 
those which oppose it. 
- There is a mistaken appraisal on the part of the opposition regarding 
the prerequisites for political change; for example, the current view 
that pressure should be eased to facilitate the talks between the 
dictators and Daw Aung San Suu Kyi (and also as a reward for the release 
of a few political prisoners). The correct view is that pressure should 
be increased, to force the dictators to sue for peace. Indeed, the last 
five or so years have seen the creation of a vicious cycle. When 
pressure increases, the dictators soften. Then, when it eases, they 
accelerate their repression. 

- More generally, there is a failure on the part of the opposition to 
accept that real instability must develop for change to occur, and that, 
among other things, chances must be taken. There is a belief, one could 
even call it a faith, that non-violent measures, i.e., activism and 
diplomacy, will be sufficient. 

It is not true to say that violence has never solved anything. Violence 
as a part of self-defense is fully justified and in many cases, from 
individual to national, it has succeeded. Even more, if you do not fight 
for your liberty, you will be a slave (and if we do not fight to 
preserve nature, it will be destroyed). We would note, though, that the 
violence must be ethical ? it must not involve non-combatants or the use 
of torture (and associated environmental damage must be minimized). 
Violence itself is a strange attractor, which is why many political 
systems established following violent revolutions have failed. 
(Regarding the terrorism in America, it was, of course, completely 
unethical, and it will not solve - or accomplish - anything. In 
addition, without great care the violence which is part of the reaction 
to it will itself solve nothing.) 

- There is little cooperation among the different elements of the 
opposition. Part of this is due to technical factors, such as the 
difficulty of finding a means to surmount the measures imposed by the 
dictators that restrict communications between forces inside and outside 
the country. However, another part is psychological: for a variety of 
reasons, different groups do not want to work together. We must ask, if 
there is little cooperation now, how can we expect a cooperative 
atmosphere to exist in a post-transition environment. (Cooperation, or 
the lack thereof, is another strange attractor.) 

- Lastly, a significant element in the opposition ? diplomacy by 
democratic states ? has betrayed the cause. Such diplomacy is designed 
to give the appearance of pushing for democracy, but its real objective 
is to ensure the perpetuation of the dictatorship. Democracies rarely 
confront dictatorships; they will not act on principle. In the new 
global arena, nations compete, and the democracies want to maintain 
their current economic advantages, and dominance. They recognize that 
economic institutions in a democratic political system are far stronger 
than those in a dictatorship. Hence, they prefer ? protestations to the 
contrary ? that such nations remain dictatorships. This is why their 
diplomacy is flaccid, and also why they refuse to rein in their domestic 
corporations, those which support the regimes. 


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