Hastening slowly

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                            Hastening slowly

The military in Myanmar is not about to hand over power. But, says AMIT
BARUAH, there is an apparent willingness to open up.

The Hindu (New Delhi)
February 25, 2001

Is there a way out for Myanmar? Will the dialogue between Ms. Aung San
Suu Kyi and the military Government lead to a settlement? Is the
military willing to share power? Is the country opening up to the rest
of the world?

Questions and more questions. There are few direct answers in Myanmar, a
country of 45 million people, which has been the subject of much
agitation and concern to the rest of the world during the last 13 years.
All have, however, welcomed the dialogue between the National League for
Democracy general secretary and the State Peace and Development Council
(SPDC). The dialogue itself is in an early and tentative stage, but does
bode well for the future. While welcoming the talks, the Italian Foreign
Minister, Mr. Lamberto Dini, said recently in Singapore: ?It is much too
early to express satisfaction on developments in Myanmar.?

But what of the country itself? Everything in the country since General
Ne Win?s coup of March 1962 has taken place under the orders of the
Army. There is no civilian component to the administration; everything
is controlled by the Tatmadaw as the security forces are known. Looking
at the larger issues, it is clear that, even if Myanmar returns to
democracy, governance of the country will hinge on the military for
several years to come. Unlike say a country like Pakistan, where too the
military holds power and has dominated politics, there is no civilian
bureaucracy to run the show in Myanmar.

In Myanmar, uniformed persons run the civil bureaucracy from the
district level right up to the top. There is no civilian face to
Government; nor is there a perceived need. Analysts also point to
another significant feature of the politics of Myanmar and that is the
agreement arrived at between the military Government and the ethnic
groups such as the Shan, the Wa and the Karens. From 1991-92, the
military Government entered into negotiations and reached agreement with
all 17 of the insurgent outfits.

?There is a three-way equation in Myanmar ? the military Government, the
civilian Opposition and the ethnic groups. Any settlement in this
country will necessarily involve all three entities,? one analyst said.

Many of these insurgent groups are now engaged in profitable
cross-border trade ? clearly enjoying political and commercial
concessions. They are unlikely to settle for anything less in any future
arrangement which involves the civilian Opposition. For its part, the
military Government attempted three years ago to build up a Golkar-type
party modeled on the ruling instrument created by General Suharto, but
gave up the idea after the upheaval in Indonesia. Observers believe that
in any future set-up the military will continue to have a dominant or
major say. They see a situation of ?impasse all around?.

Also, analysts are of the view that no matter how much international
pressure is applied, the dialogue with the civilian opposition cannot
take place in an ?accelerated manner?. They are also convinced that the
military is not about to hand over power.

During a recent visit to Myanmar, it was apparent that the Government
was engaged in a re-think on opening up to the rest of the world. While
Yangon and the West would like to engage on their own terms with each
other, it is evident that the two must arrive at some kind of
compromise. There is an apparent willingness in the military regime to
open up. It is evident that Myanmar seeks a new engagement with the West
as it talks to Ms. Suu Kyi.

The regime is also aware that it cannot explain its case to the rest of
the world. For instance, one official told this correspondent that no
one was willing to believe Myanmar?s side of the story in the recent
border clash with Thailand. In the case of the border clash, many
believe that Myanmar has a legitimate case, but the Thais have been able
to paint Yangon as the ?bad boy.?

For Myanmar?s case to carry greater credibility, it will have to allow
greater access to reporters. That has begun to happen as with the Indian
?media delegation? that accompanied the External Affairs Minister, Mr.
Jaswant Singh, to Myanmar.

There are lessons for the international community too. The policy of
sanctions and isolation has obviously hurt Myanmar, but it would be
foolish to believe that such pressures forced the military authorities
to talk to Ms. Suu Kyi. Amulti-pronged process of engagement with
Myanmar is in the interests of those who value democracy in the country.
While watching developments, it is important that the world at large can
make informed assessments of the direction in which Myanmar is headed.

It is also imperative that the dialogue with the civilian opposition
continues. The stake are high for both parties. Any snapping of the
dialogue process could mean renewed pressure on the military Government.







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<center><b><font color="#0000FF"><font size=+3>Hastening slowly</font></font></b></center>

<p><b><font color="#3333FF"><font size=+2>The military in Myanmar is not
about to hand over power. But, says AMIT BARUAH, there is an apparent willingness
to open up.</font></font></b>
<p><font color="#CC0000"><font size=+1>The Hindu (New Delhi)</font></font>
<br><font color="#CC0000"><font size=+1>February 25, 2001</font></font>
<p><font size=+1>Is there a way out for Myanmar? Will the dialogue between
Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and the military Government lead to a settlement?
Is the military willing to share power? Is the country opening up to the
rest of the world?</font>
<p><font size=+1>Questions and more questions. There are few direct answers
in Myanmar, a country of 45 million people, which has been the subject
of much agitation and concern to the rest of the world during the last
13 years. All have, however, welcomed the dialogue between the National
League for Democracy general secretary and the State Peace and Development
Council (SPDC). The dialogue itself is in an early and tentative stage,
but does bode well for the future. While welcoming the talks, the Italian
Foreign Minister, Mr. Lamberto Dini, said recently in Singapore: ?It is
much too early to express satisfaction on developments in Myanmar.?</font>
<p><font size=+1>But what of the country itself? Everything in the country
since General Ne Win?s coup of March 1962 has taken place under the orders
of the Army. There is no civilian component to the administration; everything
is controlled by the Tatmadaw as the security forces are known. Looking
at the larger issues, it is clear that, even if Myanmar returns to democracy,
governance of the country will hinge on the military for several years
to come. Unlike say a country like Pakistan, where too the military holds
power and has dominated politics, there is no civilian bureaucracy to run
the show in Myanmar.</font>
<p><font size=+1>In Myanmar, uniformed persons run the civil bureaucracy
from the district level right up to the top. There is no civilian face
to Government; nor is there a perceived need. Analysts also point to another
significant feature of the politics of Myanmar and that is the agreement
arrived at between the military Government and the ethnic groups such as
the Shan, the Wa and the Karens. From 1991-92, the military Government
entered into negotiations and reached agreement with all 17 of the insurgent
outfits.</font>
<p><font size=+1>?There is a three-way equation in Myanmar ? the military
Government, the civilian Opposition and the ethnic groups. Any settlement
in this country will necessarily involve all three entities,? one analyst
said.</font>
<p><font size=+1>Many of these insurgent groups are now engaged in profitable
cross-border trade ? clearly enjoying political and commercial concessions.
They are unlikely to settle for anything less in any future arrangement
which involves the civilian Opposition. For its part, the military Government
attempted three years ago to build up a Golkar-type party modeled on the
ruling instrument created by General Suharto, but gave up the idea after
the upheaval in Indonesia. Observers believe that in any future set-up
the military will continue to have a dominant or major say. They see a
situation of ?impasse all around?.</font>
<p><font size=+1>Also, analysts are of the view that no matter how much
international pressure is applied, the dialogue with the civilian opposition
cannot take place in an ?accelerated manner?. They are also convinced that
the military is not about to hand over power.</font>
<p><font size=+1>During a recent visit to Myanmar, it was apparent that
the Government was engaged in a re-think on opening up to the rest of the
world. While Yangon and the West would like to engage on their own terms
with each other, it is evident that the two must arrive at some kind of
compromise. There is an apparent willingness in the military regime to
open up. It is evident that Myanmar seeks a new engagement with the West
as it talks to Ms. Suu Kyi.</font>
<p><font size=+1>The regime is also aware that it cannot explain its case
to the rest of the world. For instance, one official told this correspondent
that no one was willing to believe Myanmar?s side of the story in the recent
border clash with Thailand. In the case of the border clash, many believe
that Myanmar has a legitimate case, but the Thais have been able to paint
Yangon as the ?bad boy.?</font>
<p><font size=+1>For Myanmar?s case to carry greater credibility, it will
have to allow greater access to reporters. That has begun to happen as
with the Indian ?media delegation? that accompanied the External Affairs
Minister, Mr. Jaswant Singh, to Myanmar.</font>
<p><font size=+1>There are lessons for the international community too.
The policy of sanctions and isolation has obviously hurt Myanmar, but it
would be foolish to believe that such pressures forced the military authorities
to talk to Ms. Suu Kyi. Amulti-pronged process of engagement with Myanmar
is in the interests of those who value democracy in the country. While
watching developments, it is important that the world at large can make
informed assessments of the direction in which Myanmar is headed.</font>
<p><font size=+1>It is also imperative that the dialogue with the civilian
opposition continues. The stake are high for both parties. Any snapping
of the dialogue process could mean renewed pressure on the military Government.</font>
<br>&nbsp;
<br>&nbsp;
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