Signs of a thaw? "The Economist"

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 The Economist 
 February 3, 2001 U.S. Edition 

Signs of a thaw? 

WHAT is going on in Myanmar? European diplomats ventured into the capital
Yangon, formerly
Rangoon, this week to discuss the junta's recent charm offensive, and came
away little the wiser, though
there are plenty of encouraging signs. On January 26th it was revealed that
the government had freed
over 80 political prisoners. One of them was Tin Oo, the vice-chairman of
the National League for
Democracy, which won an election in 1990 that the generals have never
honoured. The prisoner release
followed an announcement by the UN that Aung San Suu Kyi, who heads the NLD
and has been
consistently demonised by the government, had been meeting some of the
junta's top generals. 

Both of these gestures are extraordinary. The generals have been rounding
up NLD members
relentlessly over the past couple of years, in an effort to eradicate any
remnants of an opposition. They
have been even more dogged in their efforts to discredit Miss Suu Kyi, who
won the Nobel peace prize
for opposing them and who remains the rallying point for the regime's
detractors around the world. Last
August the government blockaded a road for days to prevent her from
visiting supporters outside the
city. Since then she has been under virtual house arrest. 

So why have the generals suddenly relaxed their grip? The most likely
answer is that they think they can
afford to, not that they have to. Though western countries maintain
sanctions against the regime, it is
hard to believe that it is now buckling. Most Asian countries are still
happy to do business with
Myanmar, and China especially is doing roaring cross-border trade. 

Nor should one read too much into reports of a split between reformers and
hardliners. Trade
restrictions and multi-tiered exchange rates do indeed distort some parts
of the economy grotesquely.
And Khin Nyunt, one of the junta's top generals, does appear to support
making some changes. But
there is not much chance of anything dramatic happening. "The thing that
they all agree about is that any
economic reform would cause chaos in the country," says one western
businessman who pops in and
out from Thailand. And although the government's growth figures are
overblown, the economy is
nevertheless slightly expanding, rather than contracting. 

Moreover, even the "reformers" within the junta have little interest in
loosening up politically. They do
not think they need to do so to improve the economy, and they certainly do
not feel vulnerable
politically. The military regime, says a recent report by the International
Crisis Group, a think-tank, is "as
strong as at any time in the country's history". The army has roughly
doubled in size since 1988, when it
bloodily suppressed a wave of protest and installed itself in power. 

Unfortunately for Myanmar's democrats, the generals appear to be so well
entrenched that they can
now afford to work on their public relations. There is no harm in releasing
opponents if the opposition is
no longer a threat. And if Miss Suu Kyi is becoming irrelevant, there is no
harm in meeting her to discuss
the terms of surrender.