JUNTA DISSIDENTS (Asiaweek)

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Asiaweek

September 8, 2000

JUNTA DISSIDENTS

BY ROGER MITTON

Suu Kyi got the headlines, but the regime fears an internal challenge


    Two portentous events in Myanmar elicited very different reactions 
recently. One grabbed
international headlines, but generated little attention at home. The other 
was the talk of Yangon, yet
barely drew a ripple of interest overseas. As is often the case, their true 
significance is in inverse
proportion to their media coverage. The first incident, a challenge by 
pro-democracy leader Aung
San Suu Kyi, the regime took in its stride. But the junta was much more 
concerned about the second
-- a slap in the face from a rising star in the army.

On Aug. 24, Suu Kyi and a dozen National League for Democracy colleagues 
tried to travel south of
Yangon to confer with other NLD members. They knew from experience that 
they would not be
allowed to do so. After driving a short distance, Suu Kyi's group was 
shunted onto a side lane near
Dala town. A week later, they were still there. Officials have provided 
facilities and allowed them to
buy supplies in Dala. Cooped up in her small white Toyota, Suu Kyi, 55, is 
unlikely to be feeling
comfortable. But it is not the first time she has endured this. Two years 
ago, she did it four times --
giving up her final attempt due to ill health only after a 13-day car 
sit-in. Says a diplomat in Yangon:
"People expect this stand-off to be lengthy, more than ten days. Her health 
will play a role."

Yet Suu Kyi's options are so limited that many wonder why she undertook the 
venture. "She has not
been in the news for some time," notes Sunait Chutinaranond of Bangkok's 
Chulalongkorn University.
"So she is sending out a message that she cannot be forgotten, that the 
democratic struggle continues
and that she needs the world's attention." Suu Kyi herself denies this. 
Asked by Asiaweek last year
about the motive for her 1998 car sit-ins, she said: "We don't do things to 
attract attention. We do
what we think would help us in our political aims."

But her political choices remain constrained. "She has done this driving 
before, and she has written
statements and made videos," says a Yangon professional. "I'm not sure what 
else she can do." In an
Aug. 21 video, she criticized the "sham" reopening of Myanmar's 
universities two months ago. Shut
down in late 1996 after student protests, the campuses have been rebuilt 
far outside city centers and
are being run with meager resources, substandard staff and a curtailed 
academic year. "After Suu Kyi
released the video, she announced she would organize her party's youth wing 
in suburban towns,"
says an Asian diplomat in Yangon. "She wants to encourage frustrated youths 
to show support. Three
days later she goes on the road. I don't think it's a coincidence."

That is another reason the regime could not let her proceed. Spokesman Col. 
Hla Min told
Asiaweek: "A lot of parents are concerned because she encouraged the 
students to be more active in
politics. No one wants that. Everyone wants the kids to be able to study 
peacefully." Yangon does
not seem unduly worried by Suu Kyi's action. Even so, says Hla Min, "we 
would be happier if she
would return to Yangon and continue her political activities there. But it 
is up to her."

While Western nations have been predictably critical, the reaction in Asia 
has been muted. In
Myanmar itself, while many ordinary citizens admire Suu Kyi's courage, 
there is less favorable
reaction from the business community. "Her stunt has already negatively 
impacted hotel bookings,"
says one irate expatriate. Even civilians are less swept up by the event 
than two years ago. Notes a
diplomat in Yangon: "After a week, many ordinary people still don't seem to 
know about it."

More significant is a growing divergence within the junta. A group of "new 
dissidents" has arisen in the
military and one of its key members recently spoke out -- and lost his job. 
This was the other event
that rocked Yangon recently, though almost no place else. Even now, the 
regime has not announced
it, in contrast to its flurry of statements on Suu Kyi. It concerns one of 
the military's brightest and most
articulate officers, Brig.-Gen. Zaw Tun, the deputy minister for national 
planning and development.

On July 7, he spoke at a seminar on the Myanmar economy. He did not clear 
his words with
superiors. A favorite of junta leader Senior General Than Shwe, Zaw Tun, 
52, felt he did not need to
do so. He knew that the Myanmar Investment Commission was a mess; its 
chairman, deputy
chairman and secretary were all dumped late last year for ineptitude, 
corruption and philandering.
And investment in the country was plummeting. Like other young officers, 
Zaw Tun saw the chronic
incompetence at the economic ministries. His own progress had also been 
stymied. Zaw Tun had a
reputation for candor. When asked by Asiaweek in March about the lack of 
economic progress, he
said: "Maybe it's because we are a little shut down to the world. We still 
have a lot of restrictions
compared with other countries. But gradually we are going to get it right."

His patience apparently exhausted, Zaw Tun threw caution to the wind in his 
speech. He lambasted
the investment climate in Myanmar. He pointed out that contrary to official 
figures, GDP growth last
year was about 6%, not 10.9%. "There is no consistency in the trade 
policy," he complained. Forcing
tourists to buy $ 300 in Foreign Exchange Certificates was also wrong, he 
said (a month later, the
amount was cut to $ 200). Zaw Tun even took his mentor, Than Shwe, to task. 
"Some who hold
responsibilities in the country lack proper awareness," he said.

It was too much for the leadership and Zaw Tun was dismissed. "He's had to 
vacate his house and he
lost his perks like his car and driver," says a Yangon diplomat. "He was 
also stripped of his rank, but
he is still in the army." Questions remain about why Zaw Tun said what he 
did and how much support
he had from fellow officers. Says the diplomat: "He accepts that he went 
too far and has apologized.
But many government officials and young officers, as well as most 
businessmen, agree with what he
said."

That is what worries the leadership. "Some say Zaw Tun has become a hero 
overnight," notes an
Asian diplomat. Few soldiers, if any, will say that in public. But 
observers point out that other officers
have been treading a similar line. Most are in the coterie of regime 
strategist Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt.
There is Col. Thein Swe, who championed this year's publication of The 
Myanmar Times, openly
admitting it could not be worse than the government-backed New Light of 
Myanmar. There is
Home Affairs Minister Col. Tin Hlaing, who took a risk by approving 
provisions for Red Cross
access to political detainees. There is Win Aung, arguably ASEAN's most 
accessible foreign minister.
There is Col. Kyaw Thein, who led the controversial policy of rapprochement 
with former drug
barons. And there are Agriculture Minister Maj.-Gen. Nyunt Tin and his 
successor as southwest area
commander, Brig.-Gen. Shwe Mann. Both are considered potential leaders.

One or more among this second-echelon group could pick up Zaw Tun's mantle, 
especially when the
senior leadership is shuffled -- as expected in November, when Than Shwe 
will likely retire. As Thein
Swe told Asiaweek earlier this year: "Things won't stay as they are. They 
will change in Myanmar.
More efficient people will come in and more efficient policies will be 
introduced. You have to wait for
the perfect timing." Zaw Tun got his timing wrong, but perhaps the next 
wave of rising officers will get
it right.