Smell of prosperity

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Smell of prosperity

>From The Statesman newspaper (India),
Dated September 3, 2000

The best two economic indicators of a potential upturn in Myanmar's
international trade are the nightly goings-on in bars and cement-bag
sales. When business is brisk, prostitutes are out in force and cement
sales rise. Despite official denials that Myanmar has a sex industry,
the word on the street is that bars of certain hotels are starting to
hum.

In a country where official statistics are hard to come by and even
harder to confirm, such evidence may be the best that Myanmar watchers
can hope for.

After three years of recession, declining trade figures and economic
sanctions imposed by the West, Myanmar now may be looking at a brighter
economic future.

But, such signs of increased international interest will not be welcomed
by Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League for
Democracy, who was in a roadside stand-off with the government just
outside Yangon last week.

She has consistently called for sanctions and for tourists to stay away,
a line backed by the USA, which has banned new investments in the
country.

But, trade figures released by Singapore Trade Development Board are
among the first to indicate a recovery, of sorts.

They show a seven percent growth in bilateral trade in January to July,
over the same period in 1999. Trade is now worth S $ 551 million.

But, getting to grips with Myanmar's investment and trade figures is
difficult, a fact acknowledged by the country's former deputy planning
and economy minister Zaw Tun, who was sacked after a July speech in
which he attacked the Junta for covering up the terrible state of the
nation's economy.

Singapore businessmen say that they have noticed what appears to be
growth in interest.

"There are more trading companies but not more investment" said one, who
asked not to be named.

Infrastructure projects were still not on Singaporean firms' radar
screens. Of the 100 or so trading firms, most were involved in the
seafood and agricultural export trade.

International business advisers based in Yangon say Myanmar is
potentially a good place to invest, but half the battle was in
overcoming "misinformation" about the country.

They blame previous pull-outs by companies on the Asian meltdown rather
than on domestic political reasons.

One advisor said; "The past 18 months have seen a significant slow-down
in new investments in Myanamr. While new investments again seem to be
starting now, it is too early to tell whether there is a shift in the
companies investing in Myanmar."

She said Chinese companies were using soft loans tied to construction
projects, property development and light manufacturing to establish a
growing presence.

Cement sales are also up. The government has just teamed up with a
Chinese company to build a plant near Mandalay, with a daily production
capacity of 400 tons. Exports from Thailand are also rising.

Next year, thanks to a new commercial navigation agreement, Chinese
ships will be able to ply the Mekong river, boosting Myanmar's trade
prospects.

And plans to hook Thaialnd with a north-south high way running from
China via Myanmar is almost certain to accelerate as Asian economies
recover.

Asean countries have not been deterred from trading with Myanmar, but
strict financial policy of the military government - including continued
control of foreign exchange dealing - led to Toyota Motor and seasoning
manufacturer Ajinomoto pulling out this year after the government banned
imports of vital raw materials and automobiles.

"The main complaint of foreign investors in Myanmar is the
non-convertible Kyat," said the business advisor.

Others blame a lack of financial management experience among the
Generals. Despite this, Myanmar remains desperate to attract foreign
businesses.

In an interview with the Yangon-based Myanmar Times, Foreign Minister
Win Aung said; "Our foreign policy is very clear, we want to create
friendship with every country including with those big powers in the
West who are now criticizing us".

But given the criticism in the West of Myanmar's human rights records,
those governments appear unlikely to change their stance any time soon -
a move which gives firms from China and neighbouring countries greater
trade and commercial opportunities.

The Strait Times/ Asia News Network.