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Subject: Reuters-Japan moving hesitantly towards Burma 

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Japan moving hesitantly towards Burma=20

By David Brunnstro

BANGKOK: High-level contacts between Japan and Burma reflect growing =
concerns both in Tokyo and Southeast Asia about China's influence in the =
military-ruled country, diplomats and analysts say.=20

Like Western powers, Japan wants democratic progress in Burma, but =
analysts say strategic and economic considerations remain paramount and =
Tokyo is looking for ways to help stabilise Rangoon's economy and =
improve conditions for Japanese investment.=20

Tokyo's worries prompted the first meeting of a Japanese prime minister =
and his Burma counterpart in 15 years when Keizo Obuchi met Senior =
General Than Shwe in Manila late last month. This was followed by a =
visit to Rangoon by Japan's former premier Ryutaro Hashimoto, Obuchi's =
senior foreign policy adviser.=20

Hashimoto met senior members of the ruling military council, including =
Senior General Than Shwe, to discuss Obuchi's offer to help should Burma =
embark on serious economic reform.=20

Toshiro Kudo, a researcher at the Institute of Developing Economies, a =
semi-governmental Japan think tank, said Burma had grown in Japan's =
strategic consciousness since it joined the Association of South East =
Asian Nations in 1997.=20

"Burma used not to be considered so strategically important, but it's =
getting more and more so when it comes to formulating diplomatic policy. =
It also has significant resources and Japan doesn't want to give up =
economic interests to China." A European diplomat in Rangoon said Japan, =
given its geography, felt obliged to take a more pragmatic approach =
through "constructive engagement" than Europe or the United States, =
which use sanctions to try to push Burma to democratise.=20

"They are worried that if this country gets weaker, China might take it =
as an opportunity to do something - ASEAN and Japan take this as a real =
danger," he said.=20

Already northern Burma is heavily dependent economically on China, which =
imports more and more of Burma's rice.=20

"Of course, at the moment China is not going to take any big steps that =
would provoke international reaction, but say this country is in a mess =
and cannot peacefully ship rice to China, I could imagine a scenario =
China had to get rice directly," the diplomat said.=20

Even so, analysts do not foresee a full-scale resumption of Japanese =
aid, suspended after Burma's military killedthousands to crush =
pro-democracy uprising in 1988, any time soon.=20

Obuchi told Than Shwe it would be easier for Japan to provide aid if =
there were "visible" signs of democratic change.=20

A Japanese diplomat said this could include resumption of dialogue =
between the generals and Aung San Suu Kyi, Nobel Peace prize winning =
leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD).=20

Burma appeared to seek credibility points when it told Hashimoto it =
planned to reopen college campuses closed for much of the past decade to =
prevent student activism.=20

But it has made clear no rapprochement with the opposition is in the =
offing, by reviving hardline rhetoric denouncing opponents as "traitors" =
and "axe handles of neo-colonialists".=20

An Asian diplomat was not filled with optimism.=20

"There seems no way out of the Burma problem. We've been trying very =
hard for the past 10 years to engage Burma but we haven't succeeded. We =
are trying to continue the process, but there seems to be no change in =
the NLD and military stances.=20

"They are totally confronting each other and it's very hard to imagine =
any substantial change could be made in the future."=20

The Japanese diplomat said the most likely result of Japan's initiative =
was a continuation of Japan's policy of providing relatively small-scale =
aid on a case-by-case basis. This could include Japanese expertise to =
assist economic reform.=20

Japan wants Burma to cut trade tariffs and reform its foreign investment =
environment to make it more attractive to Japanese firms, many of which =
have lost money in the country.=20

Kudo could not see significant Japanese money going in without firm =
commitments to reform obstacles to progress, including the parallel =
exchange rate and moribund state sector.=20

Apart from political considerations, there were practical difficulties, =
including the need for Burma to repay past loans. Kudo said over a third =
of Burma's $5 billion foreign debt was owed to Japan.-Reuters=20




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<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><FONT size=3D4><B>Japan moving =
hesitantly towards=20
Burma </FONT><BR><FONT size=3D3>
<DIV align=3Dleft>By David Brunnstro</FONT></B></DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV align=3Dleft>BANGKOK: High-level contacts between Japan and Burma =
reflect=20
growing concerns both in Tokyo and Southeast Asia about China's =
influence in the=20
military-ruled country, diplomats and analysts say. <BR><BR>Like Western =
powers,=20
Japan wants democratic progress in Burma, but analysts say strategic and =

economic considerations remain paramount and Tokyo is looking for ways =
to help=20
stabilise Rangoon's economy and improve conditions for Japanese =
investment.=20
<BR><BR>Tokyo's worries prompted the first meeting of a Japanese prime =
minister=20
and his Burma counterpart in 15 years when Keizo Obuchi met Senior =
General Than=20
Shwe in Manila late last month. This was followed by a visit to Rangoon =
by=20
Japan's former premier Ryutaro Hashimoto, Obuchi's senior foreign policy =

adviser. <BR><BR>Hashimoto met senior members of the ruling military =
council,=20
including Senior General Than Shwe, to discuss Obuchi's offer to help =
should=20
Burma embark on serious economic reform. <BR><BR>Toshiro Kudo, a =
researcher at=20
the Institute of Developing Economies, a semi-governmental Japan think =
tank,=20
said Burma had grown in Japan's strategic consciousness since it joined =
the=20
Association of South East Asian Nations in 1997. <BR><BR>"Burma used not =
to be=20
considered so strategically important, but it's getting more and more so =
when it=20
comes to formulating diplomatic policy. It also has significant =
resources and=20
Japan doesn't want to give up economic interests to China." A European =
diplomat=20
in Rangoon said Japan, given its geography, felt obliged to take a more=20
pragmatic approach through "constructive engagement" than Europe or the =
United=20
States, which use sanctions to try to push Burma to democratise. =
<BR><BR>"They=20
are worried that if this country gets weaker, China might take it as an=20
opportunity to do something - ASEAN and Japan take this as a real =
danger," he=20
said. <BR><BR>Already northern Burma is heavily dependent economically =
on China,=20
which imports more and more of Burma's rice. <BR><BR>"Of course, at the =
moment=20
China is not going to take any big steps that would provoke =
international=20
reaction, but say this country is in a mess and cannot peacefully ship =
rice to=20
China, I could imagine a scenario China had to get rice directly," the =
diplomat=20
said. <BR><BR>Even so, analysts do not foresee a full-scale resumption =
of=20
Japanese aid, suspended after Burma's military killedthousands to crush=20
pro-democracy uprising in 1988, any time soon. <BR><BR>Obuchi told Than =
Shwe it=20
would be easier for Japan to provide aid if there were "visible" signs =
of=20
democratic change. <BR><BR>A Japanese diplomat said this could include=20
resumption of dialogue between the generals and Aung San Suu Kyi, Nobel =
Peace=20
prize winning leader of the National League for Democracy (NLD). =
<BR><BR>Burma=20
appeared to seek credibility points when it told Hashimoto it planned to =
reopen=20
college campuses closed for much of the past decade to prevent student =
activism.=20
<BR><BR>But it has made clear no rapprochement with the opposition is in =
the=20
offing, by reviving hardline rhetoric denouncing opponents as "traitors" =
and=20
"axe handles of neo-colonialists". <BR><BR>An Asian diplomat was not =
filled with=20
optimism. <BR><BR>"There seems no way out of the Burma problem. We've =
been=20
trying very hard for the past 10 years to engage Burma but we haven't =
succeeded.=20
We are trying to continue the process, but there seems to be no change =
in the=20
NLD and military stances. <BR><BR>"They are totally confronting each =
other and=20
it's very hard to imagine any substantial change could be made in the =
future."=20
<BR><BR>The Japanese diplomat said the most likely result of Japan's =
initiative=20
was a continuation of Japan's policy of providing relatively small-scale =
aid on=20
a case-by-case basis. This could include Japanese expertise to assist =
economic=20
reform. <BR><BR>Japan wants Burma to cut trade tariffs and reform its =
foreign=20
investment environment to make it more attractive to Japanese firms, =
many of=20
which have lost money in the country. <BR><BR>Kudo could not see =
significant=20
Japanese money going in without firm commitments to reform obstacles to=20
progress, including the parallel exchange rate and moribund state =
sector.=20
<BR><BR>Apart from political considerations, there were practical =
difficulties,=20
including the need for Burma to repay past loans. Kudo said over a third =
of=20
Burma's $5 billion foreign debt was owed to Japan.-Reuters =
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