NEWS- Activists fearful of Japanese

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Subject: NEWS- Activists fearful of Japanese investment

South China Morning Post - Wednesday, December 1, 1999

BURMA

Activists fearful of Japanese investment

by WILLIAM BARNES in Bangkok

Critics of the Burmese regime fear that recent top-level Japanese
contacts
will only persuade the junta to make superficial political concessions
sufficient to permit Tokyo to lift the floodgates of easy lending.
Former Japanese prime minister Ryutaro Hashimoto arrived in Rangoon last
night on a mission to assess Burma's "economic needs".

Last weekend, Japanese premier Keizo Obuchi met the military regime's
senior
general, Than Shwe, at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit
in
Manila.

Japanese enterprises are poised to drive deep and hard into Burma - a
country that has long figured on their corporate radar screens - when
the
political restraints are cut.

"This could be a disaster for the pro-democracy movement," warned one
Western democracy activist. "Any leverage the international community
has
with the military would vanish overnight."

The bilateral relationship is complex. Many Japanese who have tried to
do
business in Burma claim they have a special feeling for the country.
Partly
perhaps because of relatively warm memories brought back by soldiers who
served there in World War II.

More importantly, Burma is seen as a juicy target that is uniquely ripe
for
exploitation.

This time around Japanese businessmen say they will not make the same
"mistake" they made when, in deference to US sensitivities, they held
off
and lost early opportunities to Taiwanese and Hong Kong rivals.

Nevertheless, the risk-averse Japanese business establishment will not
move
too far into Burma without its back being covered by political
"concessions"
wrung from the regime by their Government.

This will help protect it from Western criticism and, just as important,
allow Japan to throw development money at Burma to smooth the way for
business projects.

The opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, has historic and personal links
with Japan that could partly counterbalance the business lobby's warm
ties
with certain sections of the ruling military.

She has worked in Japan, speaks some Japanese and has written delicate
columns on political and cultural life in Burma for a Japanese
newspaper.

Her father, the independence hero Aung San, also sought Japanese help in
ejecting the British colonial rulers.

But the undoubted sympathy and admiration many Japanese feel for Ms Aung
San
Suu Kyi may be swamped by the pressing demands of the business lobby.

Mr Obuchi is reported by one of his officials to have told General Than
Shwe: "If your country is to tackle economic reform seriously, we are
ready
to support your country's economic reform with our experience."

The regime's critics and many more analysts seriously doubt that real,
effective reform is possible without first seeing a quite dramatic
change in
the make-up of government.

The Burmese opposition has also argued that although the military
government
might offer occasional sops to international opinion, in reality its
rule is
getting harder.

"I would hope that Tokyo will resist the temptation to pull its punches
on
political reform and privately tell the regime some home truths. I hope
that, but I do fear they will pass on at best muffled messages," said a
veteran activist.