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Soured Thai-Myanmar ties indirectly aid Karen rebels

 .c Kyodo News Service  

  
MAE SOT, Thailand, Nov. 18 (Kyodo) - By: Supalak Ganjanakhundee Recently
strained relations between Thailand and Myanmar are providing a welcome
respite from attacks by Myanmar's military on Karen rebels dug in near the
Thai border, a Karen leader said Thursday. 

''If the two countries have good ties, Thailand will do Myanmar a favor by
blocking our movements, trying to force us to defect to the junta,'' Bo Mya,
leader of Karen National Union (KNU), said in an interview with Kyodo News. 

But because relations between Thailand and Myanmar have plummeted since five
gunmen, believed to be Myanmar students exiled in Thailand, stormed the
Myanmar Embassy in Bangkok and held hostages for 25 hours on Oct. 1 and 2,
Bangkok has applied no pressure on the KNU to surrender to Myanmar's
military government, Bo Mya said. 

Myanmar has sealed all border checkpoints with Thailand and terminated Thai
fishery concessions in Myanmar sea areas to force Thailand to arrest the
hostage-takers, but even though Thai police arrested two students recently,
they were not key players in the embassy incident and bilateral relations
are still poor. 

Surin Pitsuwan, Thai foreign minister, is expected to visit Yangon soon in a
bid to restore ties, but it is unclear if he can be successful. 

Bo Mya, interviewed at a hideout in Myanmar's Karen State, said, ''The junta
actually wants to resume the border connection with Thailand because
ordinary people are suffering from a shortage of food and consumer goods.
But the big problem now is how the junta generals can save face.'' 

Additionally, he said, the border closure has had no direct adverse impact
on the KNU because the KNU does not rely on border trade. He suggested, in
fact, junta attention is now so focused on keeping the border sealed that it
has no time to combat the rebels. 

But Thai military source said Bo Mya and the KNU could be in trouble during
the dry season between now and April because the junta and its minority
allies in the region are planning a major offensive against the KNU. 

Bo Mya said he too has learned of the plan for an offensive, but brushed it
off as simply ''the annual task'' of the Myanmar military. 

''We have fought with (Yangon) since 1949 and we are still alive. No matter
how big the attack is, we have to fight,'' the 73-year-old KNU leader said. 

He also noted the KNU has changed its strategy from direct confrontation to
guerrilla warfare since losing its stronghold at Manerplaw near the Thai
border in a battle with the Myanmar armed forces and the Yangon-backed
Democratic Karen Buddhist Army in 1994. 

''We have divided into various small mobile units now to make it difficult
for Myanmar troops to attack,'' Bo Mya said. 

The Karen leader claimed that with the tactical change, the KNU killed about
100 Myanmar soldiers during the past three months. 

The KNU was set up in 1947 by Saw Ba U Gyi to protect Karen interests in the
border region and went underground in 1949, a year after Myanmar gained
independence from Britain. 

Bo Mya said the KNU now has about 20,000 troops deployed in seven brigades
in Karen State, but the Thai military source estimated its strength barely
reaches 4,500. 

The KNU, determined to win an independent Karen state, has failed in several
attempts to establish a cease-fire with the junta and previous military rulers. 

The last breakdown was in 1995, but Bo Mya said he still hopes for an
accommodation with the junta. 

''I am old, they are tired. Both sides cannot prolong armed fighting
forever. There are many means to reach the goal (of peace),'' he said,
without saying how he expects to reach the goal. 

AP-NY-11-17-99 2351EST