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SCMP-Doubts surround junta's World



Subject: SCMP-Doubts surround junta's World Bank invitation motives 

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South China Morning Post-Wednesday, November 17, 1999
 BURMA=20
Doubts surround junta's World Bank invitation motives=20
AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Bangkok=20

Burma's motives in inviting a World Bank team to discuss its limping =
economy were shrouded in doubt as analysts debated if the move was =
merely a ploy to ease foreign pressure on the junta.=20
While genuine dialogue with the World Bank would indicate a new spirit =
of openness its validity would hinge on the generals' willingness to act =
on World Bank recommendations, observers said.=20

The invitation was made public after a highly critical World Bank report =
warned that Burma's economy was on the verge of collapse, submerged in =
debt, choked by inflation and starved of foreign investment.=20

The report said the military must promote political reform to stave off =
a systemic banking crisis.=20

Mohan Malik of Australia's School of International Defence Studies gave =
a measured reaction to the junta's invitation, warning it had a history =
of adopting apparently conciliatory stances while retreating behind =
entrenched positions.=20

"From time to time, the regime gives out encouraging signs, but it is =
often a device to ease Western pressure and then they carry on doing =
what they have been doing."=20

Only genuine action could demonstrate the junta's sincerity, he said.=20

Potential points of contention between Burma and the World Bank appear =
to centre on the causes of the economic malaise.=20

Burmese ministers say their problems lie in an investment drought and =
Western trade restrictions imposed to punish alleged human rights =
abuses.=20

The World Bank report puts the blame squarely on the military-dominated =
state apparatus and tightly controlled economy.=20

Burma analyst Sunai Pasak, from Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University sees =
little hope the junta will admit mistakes.=20

"There will be no genuine response from the Burmese junta - there will =
be just a ploy to engage with the World Bank," he said.=20

They might introduce some kind of 'structure of reform' but it is very =
problematic how far they would go."=20

Mr Sunai said Burma had failed in an attempt to emulate the mainland, =
one of the few states with close links to Rangoon, by giving economic =
development priority over political reform.=20

"It does not have the fundamentals to use as a stimulus for economic =
growth as China did," he said.=20

World Bank sources said that any new initiative in Burma would first aim =
to build confidence similar to the bank's efforts in North Korea. There =
is little prospect of substantial aid being granted early in the =
process.=20

Observers in Rangoon detect no sign that the junta is ready to embrace a =
purported aid-for-reform payoff mooted by diplomats as a "carrot and =
stick" drive for reform last year.=20

"I think there is a sense in which none of the leaders [in Burma] think =
they have done a bad job with the economy," said one political observer.


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<DIV><FONT size=3D2><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2>South China Morning=20
Post</FONT></FONT><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><FONT =
face=3DHelvetica,Arial=20
size=3D2>-Wednesday, November 17, =
1999</FONT><BR>&nbsp;<!--ArticleEnd--><FONT=20
color=3D#003300 face=3DHelvetica,Arial size=3D2><B>BURMA</B></FONT> =
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=3DArial size=3D2><FONT size=3D4><B>Doubts surround =
junta's World Bank=20
invitation motives</B> </FONT></DIV>
<P><!--ArticleEnd--><!--ArticleStart--><!--byline--><FONT =
face=3DHelvetica,Arial=20
size=3D2><B>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE in Bangkok</B></FONT> <!--article-->
<DIV>Burma's motives in inviting a World Bank team to discuss its =
limping=20
economy were shrouded in doubt as analysts debated if the move was =
merely a ploy=20
to ease foreign pressure on the junta. </DIV>
<P>While genuine dialogue with the World Bank would indicate a new =
spirit of=20
openness its validity would hinge on the generals' willingness to act on =
World=20
Bank recommendations, observers said.=20
<P>The invitation was made public after a highly critical World Bank =
report=20
warned that Burma's economy was on the verge of collapse, submerged in =
debt,=20
choked by inflation and starved of foreign investment.=20
<P>The report said the military must promote political reform to stave =
off a=20
systemic banking crisis.=20
<P>Mohan Malik of Australia's School of International Defence Studies =
gave a=20
measured reaction to the junta's invitation, warning it had a history of =

adopting apparently conciliatory stances while retreating behind =
entrenched=20
positions.=20
<P>"From time to time, the regime gives out encouraging signs, but it is =
often a=20
device to ease Western pressure and then they carry on doing what they =
have been=20
doing."=20
<P>Only genuine action could demonstrate the junta's sincerity, he said. =

<P>Potential points of contention between Burma and the World Bank =
appear to=20
centre on the causes of the economic malaise.=20
<P>Burmese ministers say their problems lie in an investment drought and =
Western=20
trade restrictions imposed to punish alleged human rights abuses.=20
<P>The World Bank report puts the blame squarely on the =
military-dominated state=20
apparatus and tightly controlled economy.=20
<P>Burma analyst Sunai Pasak, from Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University =
sees=20
little hope the junta will admit mistakes.=20
<P>"There will be no genuine response from the Burmese junta - there =
will be=20
just a ploy to engage with the World Bank," he said.=20
<P>They might introduce some kind of 'structure of reform' but it is =
very=20
problematic how far they would go."=20
<P>Mr Sunai said Burma had failed in an attempt to emulate the mainland, =
one of=20
the few states with close links to Rangoon, by giving economic =
development=20
priority over political reform.=20
<P>"It does not have the fundamentals to use as a stimulus for economic =
growth=20
as China did," he said.=20
<P>World Bank sources said that any new initiative in Burma would first =
aim to=20
build confidence similar to the bank's efforts in North Korea. There is =
little=20
prospect of substantial aid being granted early in the process.=20
<P>Observers in Rangoon detect no sign that the junta is ready to =
embrace a=20
purported aid-for-reform payoff mooted by diplomats as a "carrot and =
stick"=20
drive for reform last year.=20
<P>"I think there is a sense in which none of the leaders [in Burma] =
think they=20
have done a bad job with the economy," said one political=20
observer.</P></FONT></BODY></HTML>

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