The Nation -Republican frontrunner

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Subject: The Nation -Republican frontrunner George W Bush opt for constructive engagement with Burma

The Nation - Nov 13, 1999.
Editorial & Opinion
Bush takes a keen interest in Asia

Republican frontrunner George W Bush will woo Asia and opt for constructive
engagement with Burma, writes Arun Senkuttuvan for The Nation.

AUSTIN, Texas -- An outline of what is likely to be US foreign policy from
about this time next year is slowly emerging -- largely against the will of
the man who will in all probability make the decisions.

The man, George W Bush, is campaigning for the presidential election to be
held by next November on the basis that he is the son of his father, former
president George Bush, that he knows how to work the system and, therefore,
he need not get involved in any debate on any issue, domestic or foreign. He
has studiously avoided spelling out his stand on any controversial issue and
has declined to join debates with other candidates.

That he can work the system is not in doubt. He has sewn up almost all the
campaign funds that could be available to a Republican presidential
candidate. Big money and conservatives are backing him in the belief that he
will inherit the network of his father (a successful president and earlier a
successful director of the Central Intelligence Agency) and, in both the
domestic and international arenas, hold the ring and let big business do the
job.

All the polls indicate that he is well ahead of all the other aspirants from
both major parties. So the media has been eager to drag him out to talk
about something significant. But it had no success until last week when a
Boston TV reporter asked him whether he knew the names of the heads of
government of Taiwan, Chechnya, India and Pakistan.

George W knew who was in charge in Taiwan but not in the other three
countries. Bush campaign managers pounced on the reporter shouting ''foul''.
No US president can be expected to know the names of men running every
damned country in the world, they said. Fair enough.

Interestingly, they did not fault the reporter on his choice of countries.
The reporter must have guessed that US policy would be more China-centric
than ever under the young Bush.

George W ought to know the name of the one man who could be the troublemaker
in that relationship, he must have thought. But the reporter was obviously
mischievous in asking him anything about India. If George W had known the
answer he would have been betraying a 50-year Republican tradition of
viewing that country with contempt or suspicion. That it is the world's
largest democracy with enormous economic problems and tensions on its
borders could only be of concern to birds and some liberal media nuts.

To question him on Chechnya was not fair either. When George W went to
school Chechnya did not exist as a country. Now the problems in that
god-forsaken place are too complicated for any president to solve without
the benefit of advisers.

What surprised TV viewers was not that George W did not have in his head the
name of Chechnya's chief but he let that question pass without saying
something about the situation there which has been well covered in American
media. What the American voter would have wanted to know was what his gut
feelings about the place were. What happens if he gets conflicting advice
from two equally brilliant advisers, as Harry Truman got in 1948? Clark
Clifford was telling Truman to recognise Israel while Gen George Marshall
was telling him not to.

George W, however, did not disappoint viewers when the question moved to
Pakistan. He revealed his gut. He did not know the name of the man who was
in charge there. But he knew there was a new man and he was pleased he was a
military man. He said: ''The new Pakistani general . . . appears he's going
to bring stability to the country, and I think that's good news for the
subcontinent.''

There you are. George W knows Pakistan, the longstanding ally. The fellows
have a bomb now but they can be trusted. They hosted Cento, didn't they? The
army is very stable and can be relied upon.

''Stability'' will be the lodestar of George W's foreign policy. Which will
be good for Asean. His thoughts on Asean were revealed on Monday when Austin
American-Statesman, the conservative daily, published a long story to show
that he does have experience in foreign affairs. It featured excerpts from
his correspondence with various ambassadors.

One letter was from Tin Winn, Burma's ambassador to the United Nations. He
referred to a briefing George W had given Asean officials. ''Your briefing
on how the US should engage the world as the sole superpower was much
appreciated,'' Tin Winn said.

''Clearly, the US holds in its hands the power to influence transformations
around the globe. I am greatly encouraged by your perception that the US
should seek change through engagement and persuasion rather than through
sanctions and other measures which invariably provoke harsh reactions.''

The peoples of Burma and other Asean countries, especially Thailand, can
rest assured that they will soon have a friend in the White House. Why
particularly Thais? If the Boston reporter had asked George W about Thailand
he would have been told not only the name of the present prime minister but
also that of the next. The Bush family knows Thaksin Shinawatra rather well.

Thai and Burmese generals can soon resume their mutually constructive
engagement and bring stability to the border areas. Pax Americaseana!

Note: For the benefit of readers not aspiring to be president, the answers
to the presidents: Lee Teng-hui, Aslan Maskhadov, Atal Behari Vajpayee and
Gen Pervez Musharraf.