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OPIUM OUTPUT DROPS DUE TO POOR WEAT



Subject: OPIUM OUTPUT DROPS DUE TO POOR WEATHER CONDITIONS

Myanmar opium output drops, US blames the weather

By David Brunnstrom

  
BANGKOK, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Myanmar's ruling generals say opium output has 
fallen sharply because of their fight against drugs, but U.S. officials argue 
poor weather can take the credit. 

The U.N. Drug Control Programme (UNDCP) said on Thursday it believed drought 
was a significant factor in the output fall in the last poppy growing season 
from September 1998 to February. 

But, overall, drug lords in the ``Golden Triangle'' compensated for the poor 
opium harvests with a flood of synthetic narcotics, the UNDCP said. The 
notorious drug-producing region includes Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, and parts of 
China and Thailand. 

Yangon is annoyed its efforts have not been given credit. 

Home Minister Colonel Tin Hlaing last week quoted representatives of the U.S. 
Counter Narcotics Center as estimating that poppy cultivation fell 31 percent 
year-on-year last season and opium output dropped 38 percent. 

``However, the CNC ignored the efforts of (the) Myanmar government and the 
local people in eradicating narcotic drugs, and attributed the drop to the 
bad weather only,'' he said. 

A U.S. embassy official in Yangon confirmed the U.S. officials had given the 
estimates in a November 4 meeting with Myanmar's Central Committee for Drug 
Abuse Control and had attributed the fall to bad weather, but declined 
further comment. 

MYANMAR SAYS PROGRESS BEING MADE 

Most of Myanmar's opium is grown in its northeastern Shan State. A government 
statement on Thursday said the weather was not good for growing in the 
southern part of the state last season but was good in northern and 
northeastern parts. 

Tin Hlaing said the data showed Myanmar, the world's number two opium 
producer after Afghanistan, was making progress towards its target of total 
eradication of opium by 2014. 

Yangon has said it could speed this process if countries like the United 
States resumed counter-narcotics assistance suspended after Myanmar's 
military put down a pro-democracy uprising in 1988. Thousands were killed in 
the crackdown. 

The U.S. data would mean a drop in potential opium gum production to 1,085 
tonnes against the U.S. estimate for the previous growing season of 1,750 
tonnes. This would still be enough to produce more than 100 tonnes of heroin. 

In September, the UNDCP gave an estimate for the latest growing season of 
1,200 tonnes. 

Myanmar's official figures have been much lower than U.S. estimates. It 
estimated total opium production for the 1997-1998 season at 680 tonnes and 
said this year it expected this amount to be halved for the season to last 
February. 

``It doesn't make an awful lot of difference,'' said Bengt Juhlin, head of 
UNDCP's Asia-Pacific regional centre in Bangkok. 

``There are still a lot of drugs going out of Burma (Myanmar) and the 
decrease in production of opium and heroin has more than been made up for by 
the increase in production of methamphetamines.'' Methamphetamines are a 
synthetic narcotic. 

Given difficulties in obtaining accurate data, it is hard to judge how 
effective the eradication has been, he said. 

``I'm not saying it is performing better or worse than in previous years, but 
I would probably say that a quite significant part of it is due to the 
weather,'' Juhlin said. 

Most of Myanmar's opium is grown in areas of Shan state run by ethnic groups 
that struck ceasefires with Yangon in 1989. 

The government insists it is working hard on eradication and rejects charges 
it tolerates or benefits from drugs, despite an increase in overall 
production during the ceasefire period. 

Thursday's government statement said land under opium cultivation had been 
cut to 102,000 acres (40,800 ha) from 160,000 acres (64,000 ha) since 
February 1998. A third of the area cleared had been sown with substitute 
crops, it added. 

03:54 11-11-99