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Reuters-Myanmar opium output drops,



Reply-To: "TIN KYI" <tinkyi@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Reuters-Myanmar opium output drops, US blames the weather 

Myanmar opium output drops, US blames the weather
03:54 a.m. Nov 11, 1999 Eastern
By David Brunnstrom

BANGKOK, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Myanmar's ruling generals say opium output has
fallen sharply because of their fight against drugs, but U.S. officials
argue poor weather can take the credit.

The U.N. Drug Control Programme (UNDCP) said on Thursday it believed drought
was a significant factor in the output fall in the last poppy growing season
from September 1998 to February.

But, overall, drug lords in the ``Golden Triangle'' compensated for the poor
opium harvests with a flood of synthetic narcotics, the UNDCP said. The
notorious drug-producing region includes Myanmar, Vietnam, Laos, and parts
of China and Thailand.

Yangon is annoyed its efforts have not been given credit.

Home Minister Colonel Tin Hlaing last week quoted representatives of the
U.S. Counter Narcotics Center as estimating that poppy cultivation fell 31
percent year-on-year last season and opium output dropped 38 percent.

``However, the CNC ignored the efforts of (the) Myanmar government and the
local people in eradicating narcotic drugs, and attributed the drop to the
bad weather only,'' he said.

A U.S. embassy official in Yangon confirmed the U.S. officials had given the
estimates in a November 4 meeting with Myanmar's Central Committee for Drug
Abuse Control and had attributed the fall to bad weather, but declined
further comment.

MYANMAR SAYS PROGRESS BEING MADE

Most of Myanmar's opium is grown in its northeastern Shan State. A
government statement on Thursday said the weather was not good for growing
in the southern part of the state last season but was good in northern and
northeastern parts.

Tin Hlaing said the data showed Myanmar, the world's number two opium
producer after Afghanistan, was making progress towards its target of total
eradication of opium by 2014.

Yangon has said it could speed this process if countries like the United
States resumed counter-narcotics assistance suspended after Myanmar's
military put down a pro-democracy uprising in 1988. Thousands were killed in
the crackdown.

The U.S. data would mean a drop in potential opium gum production to 1,085
tonnes against the U.S. estimate for the previous growing season of 1,750
tonnes. This would still be enough to produce more than 100 tonnes of
heroin.

In September, the UNDCP gave an estimate for the latest growing season of
1,200 tonnes.

Myanmar's official figures have been much lower than U.S. estimates. It
estimated total opium production for the 1997-1998 season at 680 tonnes and
said this year it expected this amount to be halved for the season to last
February.

``It doesn't make an awful lot of difference,'' said Bengt Juhlin, head of
UNDCP's Asia-Pacific regional centre in Bangkok.

``There are still a lot of drugs going out of Burma (Myanmar) and the
decrease in production of opium and heroin has more than been made up for by
the increase in production of methamphetamines.'' Methamphetamines are a
synthetic narcotic.

Given difficulties in obtaining accurate data, it is hard to judge how
effective the eradication has been, he said.

``I'm not saying it is performing better or worse than in previous years,
but I would probably say that a quite significant part of it is due to the
weather,'' Juhlin said.

Most of Myanmar's opium is grown in areas of Shan state run by ethnic groups
that struck ceasefires with Yangon in 1989.

The government insists it is working hard on eradication and rejects charges
it tolerates or benefits from drugs, despite an increase in overall
production during the ceasefire period.

Thursday's government statement said land under opium cultivation had been
cut to 102,000 acres (40,800 ha) from 160,000 acres (64,000 ha) since
February 1998. A third of the area cleared had been sown with substitute
crops, it added.