The BurmaNet News: November 3, 1999

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The BurmaNet News: November 3, 1999
Issue #1393

Noted in Passing: "The Third General Assembly of the FDL-AP calls on other
members of Asean ... if no progress is made towards the establishment of
 ... ] effective dialogue, to seriously consider suspending Burma's
membership of ASEAN" - FDL-AP Resolution on Burma (see PROGRESS TOWARD
DEMOCRACY IN BURMA)

HEADLINES:
==========
BKK POST: BURMA SAYS IT CAN REFORM DRUG BARRONS
XINHUA: MYANMAR HOLDS MICROFINANCE SEMINAR
BAI: FREEDOM OF DUBLIN CITY AWARD TO ASSK AND U2
FDL-AP: PROGRESS TOWARD DEMOCRACY IN BURMA
ASIA PULSE: HITACHI, NICHIMEN WIN MACHINERY ORDER
NATION: STUDENT GROUP SAYS MEMBERS WON'T REGISTER
BKK POST: 80,000 ILLEGALS TO BE SENT HOME
AFP: WATCHDOG CALLS FOR PROTECTION OF MYANMAR EXILES
AP: ABDUCTED SHAN EXECUTED BY REBELS, FOUR STILL HELD
XINHUA: MYANMAR-HKSAR BILATERAL TRADE UP
ASIAWEEK: AN INDOCHINESE CAUCUS
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THE BANGKOK POST: BURMA SAYS IT CAN REFORM DRUG BARONS
2 November, 1999

AFP -- Burma's junta yesterday defended its policy of refusing to extradite
drug barons wanted by other countries.

Responding to a report of meetings between Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, Secretary 1 of
the junta, and Wei Hsueh-Kang, leader of United Wa State Army, who is wanted
by Thailand and the United States, Rangoon said it was making drug barons
mend their ways.

"Myanmar's (Burma) method of trying to create legitimate businesses to make
a decent living and stop their dependency on poppy cultivation is the only
workable solution and should be given support," it added.

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XINHUA: MYANMAR HOLDS MICROFINANCE SEMINAR
2 November, 1999

Xinhua, Yangon, 2 November 1999. A seminar on microfinance is being  held
here to review an on-going micro-credit pilot project. The two-day seminar,
which began Monday, is sponsored by the Cottage Industries Department of the
Myanmar Ministry of Cooperatives and the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP). Five papers are presented by attendants from Bangladesh, India,
Malaysia, Myanmar and the Philippines.

The pilot project aimed at making credit facilities accessible to the poor,
stimulating employment opportunities through micro-small enterprises
promotion, strengthening local capacity to independently manage micro-credit
schemes with primary focus on landless laborers, subsistence farmers and
fishermen. The micro-credit project was piloted with inputs of 3.9 million
U.S. dollars from the UNDP plus the Myanmar government's contribution of
27.965 million kyats (93,216 dollars) in kind and cash with the goal of
assisting 30,000 households in Myanmar.

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BURMA ACTION IRELAND: FREEDOM OF DUBLIN CITY AWARD TO AUNG SAN SUU KYI AND
U2
1 November, 1999

Press Statement

FREEDOM OF DUBLIN CITY TO BE CONFERRED ON AUNG SAN SUU KYI OF BURMA AND U2

Burma Action Ireland, the voluntary body established in May 1996, to raise
awareness in Ireland of the current situation in Burma and the nature of the
ruling regime are very pleased at the decision tonight, 1 November, by Cllr
Mary Freehill, Lord Mayor of Dublin and Dublin City Council, to award the
honour of the Freedom of the City of Dublin to 1991 Nobel Peace Prize
Laureate and Leader of Burma's National League for Democracy, Aung San Suu
Kyi.

The Freedom of the City of Dublin will also be conferred on Dublin band U2,
(members: Bono, the Edge, Larry Mullen and Adam Clayton) and their manager
Paul McGuinness for their contribution to the life of the city and for the
band's support of the city's charities and cultural initiatives.

The elected members of Dublin City Council unanimously passed the motion of
Freedom of the City for both Aung San Suu Kyi and U2 by the Lord Mayor, and
speaking tonight about the honour Lord Mayor Mary Freehill said: "Both Aung
San Suu Kyi and U2 are extremely deserving of this honour in different ways,
and I am delighted as Lord Mayor to have this opportunity to honour these
people whom I most admire", she said.

Pat Raleigh, Chairperson of Burma Action Ireland said: "The Freedom of
Dublin City is a wonderful honour, and the fact that it has been bestowed on
Aung San Suu Kyi will be a tremendous morale booster for her and for the
people she represents, in their long struggle for democracy in Burma. We
hope that democracy will soon come to Burma, and one day Aung San Suu Kyi
will come to Dublin to receive the award in person, as the representative of
a free Burma. Burma Action Ireland is very grateful to the Lord Mayor and
Dublin City Council for recognising her extraordinary efforts. They honoured
Nelson Mandela in the 1980's, and played a significant role in the
international campaign for the downfall of apartheid. So too with this award
to Burma's National League for Democracy leader are they helping the Burmese
in their quest for democracy."

No date has yet been announced for the official presentation of the award.

For further information tel. Burma Action Ireland on + 353 1 2962238 or
mobile +353 87 8563070

Burma Action Ireland: ba-i@xxxxxxxxxxxxx

*****************************************************

FORUM OF DEMOCRATIC LEADERS - ASIA PACIFIC: PROGRESS TOWARD DEMOCRACY IN
BURMA
26 October, 1999 from altsean@xxxxxxxxxx

RESOLUTION OF THE THIRD GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE FDL-AP

WHEREAS the Forum of Democratic Leaders in the Asia-Pacific Region (FDL-AP)
is committed to the aim of upholding, promoting and protecting
universally-recognised human rights and fundamental freedoms of every person
of every nation, and in particular in the Asia-Pacific region;

WHEREAS FDL-AP upon its inauguration in 1994 recorded its deep concern at
the worsening political and economic situation in Burma, resulting from the
continued failure by the military regime (SLORC, now re-named the State
Peace and Development Council , SPDC) to respect and implement the results
of the election held in Burma in May 1990, and formed an ad hoc Commission
on Burma with a view to promoting democratic change and a peaceful
resolution of the crisis;

WHEREAS the UN General Assembly by UNGA Resolution 53/162 (the 1998 UNGA
Resolution) has urged SPDC to release unconditionally all detained political
leaders and political prisoners, to expand and intensify contacts with the
democratic forces in Burma, in particular, those represented by the National
League for Democracy (NLD), and to engage in dialogue with Daw Aung San Suu
Kyi and other political leaders including representatives of ethnic and
other groups, as the best means for promoting national and reconciliation
and the full and early restoration of democracy;

WHEREAS the 1998 UNGA Resolution further urged SPDC to take all necessary
steps towards the restoration of democracy in accordance with the will of
the people as expressed in the democratic election held in 1990; to ensure
that political parties and non-governmental organisations function freely
and that all citizens can participate freely in the political process in
accordance with the principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights;
to ensure full respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms; and, to
put an end to violations of the right to life and integrity of the human
being and to the practice of torture, abuse of women , forced labour and
forced re-location and involuntary disappearances and summary execution;

WHEREAS the FDL-AP, recognising the mounting concern throughout the
Asia-Pacific region with regard to Burma and having regard of the deep
solidarity felt by the democratic forces in the Asia -Pacific region for the
Burmese peoples, is of the view that immediate and purposeful steps should
be taken to resolve the deepening crisis and the political deadlock in
Burma;

THIS THIRD GENERAL ASSEMBLY OF THE FDL-AP

(1) Calls on the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC)

-to fully respect the terms of relevant UN resolutions, in particular UNGA
Resolution 53/162 of 25 February 1999

-to enter into a serious and comprehensive dialogue with the NLD, CRPP and
ethnic and other leaders of the Burmese people without setting preconditions

-to allow free and open entry into Burma, and contact with all parties
within the country, for representatives of UN organisations, other
governments and Parliaments, major non-governmental organisations and for
eminent persons currently denied entry

-to seriously consider seeking appropriate external assistance, by way of
mediation or other facilitation, as a means of resolving the political
crisis in Burma:

(2) Calls on the National League for Democracy (NLD), the Committee
Representing the Peoples Parliament (CRPP), and ethnic and other leaders
representing the Burmese people

-to continue to make clear their willingness to enter immediately into
all-embracing dialogue with the SPDC about the political future of the
country

-to make clear their willingness to engage in a reconciliation process such
as will enable the country to move forward with the cooperation and
commitment of all parties

-to make clear their willingness to seek appropriate external assistance, by
way of mediation or other facilitation, as means of resolving the political
crisis in Burma:

(3) Calls on the Secretary-General of the United Nations

-to take all possible steps to advance dialogue and facilitate confidence
building measures between the parties engaged in conflict in Burma;

(4) Calls on other member countries of ASEAN

-to fully support the terms of relevant UN resolutions, in particular UNGA
Resolution 53/162 of 25 February 1999, and to not only support but sponsor
successor resolutions to similar effect

-to take a pro-active approach to advancing the dialogue process within
Burma by forming a group of Eminent Persons from among ASEAN leaders to
engage with the leaders of the SPDC and CRPP on accelerating democratic
transition, national reconciliation and national reconstruction.

-to take all possible steps to facilitate confidence building measures
between the parties engaged in conflict in Burma

-to follow the constructive initiatives taken by Thailand and the
Philippines by considering the development of an ASEAN strategy of "flexible
engagement" going beyond the present policy of "constructive engagement"

-if no progress is made towards the establishment of effective dialogue
between the SPDC and the Burmese democracy movement, to seriously consider
applying economic sanctions

-if no progress is made towards the establishment of such effective
dialogue, to seriously consider suspending Burma's membership of ASEAN;

(5) Calls on other countries having close dealings with Burma

-to fully support the terms of relevant UN resolutions, in particular UNGA
Resolution 53/162 of 25 February 1999, and to not only support but sponsor
successor resolutions to similar effect

-to take, in consultation and coordination with other relevant actors,
appropriate steps to facilitate confidence building measures between the
SPDC and the Burmese opposition

-if no progress is made towards the establishment of such effective
dialogue, and unless the Burmese opposition requests otherwise, to seriously
consider suspending all forms of development assistance

-if no progress is made towards the establishment of such effective
dialogue, to seriously consider applying economic sanctions;

(6) Calls on Non-Governmental Organisations with operations in Burma
-to fully consult with the NLD on their activities; and

(7) Authorises the FDL-AP Ad Hoc Commission on Burma

-to take appropriate steps to advance all the above-mentioned measures, and
in particular

-to seek a coordinated approach among interested parties in seeking the
successful resolution of the political crisis in Burma, the restoration of
democracy, the long-term reconciliation of all parties and national
reconstruction.

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ASIA PULSE: HITACHI CONSTRUCTION, NICHIMEN WIN MYANMAR MACHINERY ORDER
26 October, 1999

Hitachi Construction Machinery Co. (TSE:6305) and Nichimen Corp. (TSE:8004)
have received an order from the agricultural ministry of Myanmar for 70
pieces of construction machinery.

The equipment will be supplied as early as December, for use in the
construction of a dam for irrigation and hydroelectric power.

Worth roughly 2 billion yen, the order includes a request for about 30
midsize hydraulic shovels. Nichimen will accept payment over a four-year
period.

The dam is being built about 390km north of Yangon. Construction began in
1998 and is to be completed around 2003.

*****************************************************

THE NATION: STUDENT GROUP SAYS MEMBERS WON'T REGISTER
2 November, 1999

LEADERS of the main group of Burmese dissident student exiles in Thailand
said yesterday their members would not register for resettlement in third
countries, despite the risk of arrest if they fail to do so.

Thailand's National Security Council has set a Nov 21 deadline for the
Burmese activists to register with the UN High Commissioner for Refugees
(UNHCR) after armed dissidents took over the Burmese Embassy in Bangkok for
25 hours last month.

Those who fail to register will be treated as illegal immigrants, the
council has said.

The All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF) rejected the deadline.

''The ABSDF will not register because we do not want resettlement in third
countries. We are fighting for democracy in our homeland,'' ABSDF chairman
Naing Aung told Reuters on the Thai-Burmese border.

ABSDF general secretary Aung Thu Nyein said Thailand was the best place for
dissidents to conduct their struggle against military rule in Burma. ''It's
close to Burma and there are many Burmese immigrants here,'' he said.

He said about 600 ABSDF members living on the border, and another 100 in
Bangkok, had not and would not register for resettlement. Aung Thu Nyein
said the ABSDF was worried those in Bangkok could face arrest and
surveillance if they did not register.

National Security Council secretary-general Kachadpai Burusapatana yesterday
said that so far between 800 and 900 Burmese students in Bangkok had
registered with the UNHCR for resettlement, while some 900 to 1,000 others
have yet to do so. He said those who registered would receive a monthly
stipend worth US$100. Kachadpai reiterated that those who did not register
by Nov 21 would face legal action.

''The point is we want to have these people resettled in third countries as
soon as possible,'' he said, adding that he expected the first batch of
students to leave by the end of the year.

Thousands of Burmese dissidents fled to Thailand after Burma's military
crushed a student-led pro-democracy uprising in 1988. About 2,700 have
registered as refugees with the UNHCR, of which 1,000 live in Maneeloy
holding centre west of Bangkok.

The UNHCR has said a process will begin this week to encourage the remaining
1,700 registered students to enter the centre.

Some eight or nine countries -- including the United States, Australia,
Canada, New Zealand and some European nations -- have expressed willingness
to take some of the students, according to the UNHCR.

Thailand is anxious to patch up its relationship with Rangoon, which was
soured when Bangkok granted the embassy attackers free passage to a safe
border area after all 89 hostages in the siege on Oct 1 and 2 were released
unharmed.

Rangoon in protest closed its frontier with Thailand, hitting cross-border
trade and leaving some 100,000 Burmese workers employed in Thai factories
with uncertain futures.

Meanwhile, the UNHCR in Geneva has informed Thailand that it will be able to
find a third country for only some of the Burmese students in Thailand,
Foreign Ministry deputy spokesman Oum Maolanond said yesterday.

The UNHCR did not think that it could find a third country for all the
students currently in the country, Oum said. The message was conveyed during
a meeting between UNHCR deputy secretary-general Soren Jessen Petersen and
Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan in Geneva. Surin is attending an
International Red Cross meeting in Switzerland.

Petersen said the UNHCR had tried its best to locate a third country for the
Burmese students.

Surin also requested the UNHCR to convince the Burmese students in Thailand
that they could have their own future in a third country, instead of
residing here without a future. The students should give themselves an
opportunity to continue with their studies for their future, he added.

Oum quoted Petersen as saying that the UNHCR understands Thai policy towards
the Burmese students, acknowledging that it grants them opportunity and
humanitarian assistance. He continued that it was understandable that
Thailand did not want the Burmese students to use its territory to launch
any ill-intentioned activities towards the Burmese government.

*****************************************************

THE BANGKOK POST: 80,000 ILLEGALS TO BE SENT HOME
2 November, 1999 by Supamart Kasem

LOCAL ENTREPRENEURS SAID INCITING PROTESTS

Tak - Preparations are under way for the repatriation of more than 80,000
illegal Burmese workers amid rumours some local
entrepreneurs were inciting them to stage protests.

Niraj Vajjanaphum, the provincial governor, yesterday said a combined force
of 2,000 policemen, soldiers, immigration and labour officials and
volunteers would begin rounding up illegal foreign workers for repatriation
as soon as the cabinet gave the greenlight.

The cabinet will today hear from the National Security Council and the army
measures to deal with alien workers after a three-month reprieve for their
employment, originally to be terminated on Aug 4, ends on Nov 3.

Mr Niraj said tents had been put up at Ban Rim Moei in Mae Sot district to
house illegal Burmese immigrants while awaiting deportation.

The province will have to spend 3.6 million baht daily to feed them, as well
as to pay for allowances and petrol expenses of officials involved.

Mr Niraj yesterday dismissed reports that local industrialists and traders
were backing illegal foreign workers to protest against their deportation in
a bid to pressure the government to allow them to stay on.

Businesses in Tak and many other provinces rely heavily on foreign
labourers, mostly Burmese, Laotians and Cambodians.

Mr Niraj said yesterday local entrepreneurs were actually very cooperative
and had already started turning in their alien workers to authorities.

Suchart Visuwan, chairman of the Tak industrial council, said local
entrepreneurs had agreed that 25,000 illegal workers each from the
industrial, trade and farm sectors would be handed over to authorities,
while Tak residents would give up another 20,000 now working as their maids.

Mr Suchart denied local businesses had spent 200 million baht to lobby
politicians to help push for permission for them to continue hiring foreign
workers.

A source said a few months ago the wife of a key government figure had
demanded Tak entrepreneurs pay 200 million baht to a certain political party
in exchange for its help.

*****************************************************

AFP: HUMAN RIGHTS WATCHDOG CALLS FOR PROTECTION OF MYANMAR EXILES
2 November, 1999

BANGKOK, Nov 2 (AFP) - A human rights watchdog urged the United Nations
refugee agency Tuesday to protect hundreds of thousands of people it fears
could be deported from Thailand to military-ruled Myanmar. The call by the
Shan Human Rights Foundation came after authorities in western Thailand were
quoted in the press as saying they were preparing to round up and deport
more than 80,000 illegal Myanmar workers.

The group, which represents ethnic Shan people from northern Myanmar, fears
people who fled persecution by the junta and its troops may also be
repatriated to Myanmar.

"Peoples from Burma have been forcibly relocated and have suffered human
rights abuses committed by the military, they have been forced to flee to
Thailand," the foundation said in an open letter to the UN High Commissioner
for Refugees (UNHCR).

"There remain a large number of refugees ... who have not been recognised as
such and are being forced to survive as illegal workers," it said.

The plight of refugees from Myanmar was highlighted when Thailand decided to
speed up resettlement of exiled students as relations with the junta plunged
following a siege at Yangon's embassy here.

The foundation said during the past four years about 100,000 people from the
Shan ethnic minority group had fled to Thailand to escape persecution.

It said most were living and working in rural areas along the Thai-Myanmar
border.

"We thus urgently appeal to the UNHCR to protect and assist these refugees,"
it said.

"We are greatly concerned that no-one will take responsibility for these
people and ensure their human rights are protected," the statement added.

The UN last week released a report accusing the junta of "summary
executions, rape, torture, forced labour" and other abuses of ethnic
minorities, in particular in Shan and Karen states on Myanmar's eastern
border with Thailand.

The violations had been "thoroughly documented by human rights organisations
and newly arrived refugees in Thailand", the report said.

But the junta said the UN had been duped by terrorist propaganda and the
majority of ethnic minority groups in Myanmar were "living peacefully and
enjoying their human rights."

The Shan Human Rights Foundation said it was unsure whether Thai authorities
would be able to carry out the deportation plan as Yangon had closed its
borders with Thailand a month ago.

Yangon shut its border checkpoints with Thailand after Bangkok supplied an
escape helicopter to five anti-junta gunmen holding 38 people hostage at the
Myanmar embassy here.

In the wake of the hostage crisis, Thailand announced it would speed up the
repatriation of exiled Myanmar students to third countries and take legal
action against those who did not register with the UNHCR.

Authorities in Thailand's western Tak province could not be reached for
comment on the reports on Tuesday.

*****************************************************

AP: ABDUCTED SHAN EXECUTED BY MYANMAR REBELS, FOUR STILL HELD
2 November, 1999

Shan fighters for independence from Myanmar have executed at least one
ethnic Shan accused of drug trafficking, rebels said Tuesday.

The Shan State Army said it was still holding four of his associates, who
were among nine ethnic Shans abducted by the rebels in a cross-border raid
on a village in northern Thailand last week. The other four have already
been released.

The SSA, which is fighting against Myanmar's military regime, has publicly
declared a war on drugs along the Thai-Myanmar border.

But Thai military reported that the SSA, which it believes is still involved
in the drugs trade, had shot not one but five men, who were all former SSA
members.

''The SSA wanted to get rid of the five defectors, fearing they would leak
secrets on the group's interest in narcotic drugs along the border,'' said
Lt. Col. Terdsak Namsanong of the Thai Army Region 3 that covers the
northern Thai border area with Myanmar, known also as Burma.

The SSA named the man it had shot dead over the weekend as Maung Thu. The
rebels accused him of setting up his own independent drugs ring on Thai soil
after he defected from the SSA.

''His four associates may escape the execution penalty since they have
nothing to do with the SSA,'' said an SSA spokesman contacted in northern
Thailand, who declined to be named.

The mountainous Thai-Myanmar border is at the heart of the Golden Triangle,
one of the world's major sources of opium, heroin and methamphetamines.

The SSA's anti-drugs claims are difficult to verify. Its members include
ex-fighters of Shan kingpin Khun Sa, who surrendered to Yangon in 1996 and
is wanted by the United States on drug-trafficking charges.

Although the captives had all lived in a Thai-Shan village in the northern
Thai province of Mae Hong Son, where they were abducted, Thailand was not
concerned with their plight.  ''We are not going to bring back their corpses
as they were not Thai nationals and the execution was done out of Thai
territory,'' Terdsak said.

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XINHUA: MYANMAR-HKSAR BILATERAL TRADE UP
2 November, 1999

Xinhua, Yangon, 2 November 1999. Trade between Myanmar and China's Hong Kong
Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) amounted to 67.87 million U.S. dollars
in the first half of this year, up 13.89 percent over the same period of
last year which was 59.59 million dollars. Of the total, Myanmar's imports
from the HKSAR was valued at 40.88 million dollars, a 0.3 percent drop from
the corresponding period of last year which was 41million dollars, the
official economic indicators said in its latest issue.

Meanwhile, Myanmar's export to the HKSAR stood at 26.99 million dollars,
increasing by 45.18 percent over the same period of last year which was
18.59 million dollars.

The indicators also show that in 1998, Myanmar-HKSAR bilateral trade went to
136.9 million dollars, of which Myanmar's imports from the HKSAR represented
89.69 million dollars, while its exports to the HKSAR were 47.21 million
dollars.

In the past five years, Myanmar drew investments totaling 69.32 million
dollars from the HKSAR, accounting for 1.2 percent of the total foreign
investment of 5.6415 billion dollars in the period.

*****************************************************

ASIAWEEK: AN INDOCHINESE CAUCUS
5 November, 1999 by Roger Mitton

AFTER A CONCLAVE IN VIENTIANE, FEARS OF A SPLIT

A historical footnote may record that the last year of this century saw the
union of all 10 nations of Southeast Asia - and their splintering. In the
distant past, ASEAN members were often embroiled in hostilities, a tendency
tempered since they came together under one house. And to keep old
antagonisms at bay, the region's leaders have preferred to meet bilaterally
or in full group summits. Conclaves of three or four nations would spook the
others, who fear power plays. So when the leaders of Vietnam, Cambodia and
Laos met on Oct. 20 in Vientiane for their first "unofficial" Indochinese
summit, they sparked concern across Southeast Asia. Would ASEAN start
splitting into subgroups?

The Indochinese trio, along with Myanmar, had been inducted into the
association over the past five years. There was talk of a possible schism
between the older, more economically advanced states and the newer, less
developed ones. The Indochinese nations were also more politically
repressive than the founding members. "There are diversities - old and new
ASEAN, rich and poor, democratic and undemocratic, Buddhist, Muslim and
Catholic," says Suchit Bunbongkarn of Thailand's Chulalongkorn University.
Such differences are a potential source of instability within the grouping

Does the Vientiane conclave threaten ASEAN? Probably not - just yet.
"Crucial is whether the discussions were inimical to ASEAN's interests,"
says Bunn Nagara, coordinating chairman of Geopolicy Research, a Malaysian
think-tank. "If they were not, there is not much of a problem." According to
official accounts, the three prime ministers - Vietnam's Phan Van Khai,
Cambodia's Hun Sen and Laos's Sisavath Keobounphanh - focused on "the
importance of further increasing various areas of cooperation and
strengthening the friendship" among their nations. Also discussed were a
"development triangle" and better transportation links.

Unmentioned publicly, however, were talks among the three PMs about their
opposition to outside intervention in East Timor. That puts them at odds
with some ASEAN members, notably Thailand, which has committed 1,500 troops
to the former Indonesian province. With East Timor on the agenda for the
full ASEAN summit in Manila later this month, there is concern that the trio

might have thrashed out a common front in Vientiane.

"The 'Indochina conclave' is evidence that a caucus of politically closed
states is emerging in ASEAN," says Southeast Asia expert Carl Thayer of the
Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Hawaii. "They share an interest
in suppressing any initiatives that would degrade the grouping's
longstanding principle of non-interference in one another's affairs." Since
Thailand, under Foreign Minister Surin Pitsuwan, has been advocating such
initiatives, an acrimonious showdown may lie ahead. Already, the notion of
forming a rival subgroup has been mooted in politically more liberal states.
Says Bangkok-based Somchai Homlaor, secretary-general of the Asian Forum for
Human Rights and Development: "The change in Indonesia may enable it to join
hands with Thailand and the Philippines to lead ASEAN toward more open and
democratic societies."

If so, another subgroup comprising Singapore, Malaysia and Brunei may find
itself caught in the middle. That could severely test ASEAN's unity - and
affect its clout on the world stage. "The group's prestige will be tarnished
and its ability to influence policy-making in the U.S. and Europe will be
degraded," says Thayer. The academic adds that signs of ASEAN disarray and
political instability would dent confidence among foreign investors. Others
disagree with that gloomy prognosis. "I don't think [the Indochinese] would
want to do anything to make their subgroup official," says Suchit. "They
just want to discuss their common concerns. It's too early to conclude that
a subgroup is developing in ASEAN."

Those who fear such a scenario are additionally disturbed by the fact that
the fledgling caucus is led by Vietnam, ASEAN's new, autocratic powerhouse.
Laos is closely aligned with Hanoi, as is Hun Sen. Explains Lao Mong Hay,
director of the Khmer Institute of Democracy in Phnom Penh: "Cambodian
rulers, who used to be communists and allies of Vietnam, do not feel
comfortable with the old ASEAN members. Theirs is very much a Cold-War
foreign policy of close friendship with the socialist camp."

The Vietnamese also have hardlining Myanmar on their side. So they wield a
big stick - as was evident last December when they tried to steamroller
Cambodia's fast-track admission against the wishes of founder members. Yet,
Bunn Nagara cautions, "Laos and Cambodia would not want to be dominated by
any country, whether it's Vietnam or Thailand. The main reason they joined
ASEAN was because membership gave them equal rights - without being
dependent on any big neighbor." That's the optimistic view, which prevails
for now. But as Lao Mong Hay notes: "The memorial to the militant solidarity
of the Indochinese countries still stands tall in a Phnom Penh park." In
time, the latest Vientiane conclave may also be seen as a memorial. The
question is whether it would commemorate ASEAN's progress or its partition.

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