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29/10/99:BURMA INVEST.BAN--GOOD FOR



Subject: 29/10/99:BURMA INVEST.BAN--GOOD FOR ASEAN

WRITTEN FRIDAY 29 OCT 99, 6:00AM

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT BAN ON BURMA 
WILL BE GOOD FOR ASEAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY
---------------------------------------------------------------
Of recent, there have been rather peculiar reports of 'economic bad
news' on Burma disseminated by Xinhua news agency. It, of course, is
nothing unusual about bad economic news on Burma: anyone can readily
checkout these economic data in publications such as Economic
Intelligence Unit Quarterly/Country reports. The peculiar aspect is  the
way Xinhua news agency has come into featuring these economic data on
Burma  that needs our careful examination.

XINHUA, ANOTHER OUTLET FOR NLM

We know that there have been numbers of reporters from Xinhua residing
in Rangoon and they appears to work collaboratively with NLM(or OSS).
Questions need to be asked as to why these 'economic bad news on Burma'
being featured by Xinhua quite recently. For example, on 18 October, the
Xinhua is reporting foreign investment in Burma to be 11.8 million USD
for the first half of 1999, a 94% drop from last year (see report
enclosed). The revenue from custom duties dropped to mere 400 million
USD down about 50% to that of last year's. The income taxes drop was
reported  on 27 October . A number of reports on downward trend in
bilateral trade figures have also been presented (see following
reports). The statistics put out by Xinhua may be as much accurate as it
can be . The motive for Xinhua featuring these data, however, need some
interpretation.

Firstly, by featuring  incredibly minuscule number of  foreign
investment figure ($12 million in Six months) , Burmese junta is trying
to soften our resolve to impose 'ban on new international investment'. 
This is also important for countries like China too: if we can get a UN
imposed a ban on new investment on human rights ground, it may be
setting a precedence. This way, Xinhua is serving for two bosses at the
same time.

NO UNREALISTIC EXPECTATIONS 

As  stated before, I personally do not like economic sanctions. However,
the ban on new investment is something I can certainly support to for
several reasons. 

Firstly, in comparison to full economic sanctions, the ban on investment
is much more easier to enforce for United Nations and international
community. In contrast, to enforce total economic sanction -- which
include import/export ban -- will require much more resources for UN and
international community. Some people have rejected full economic
sanctions even on ground of  impossibility to be able to enforce by the
UN.  To monitor the ban on new investment will be a lot easier, and is
entirely possible,  for the UN and international community. On the
otherhand, the investment sanctions are not as savage in humanitarian
view points: it theoretically does not taken away any privileges the
population currently enjoying (n.b. population in Burma virtually enjoy
nothing from military government, however).

Secondly, the ban on new investment on Burma will send a clear signal to
junta that they will have no chance of resurrecting themselves
economically. Currently, the EU and USA have bilaterally imposed
investment ban and various other sanctions on Burma, which are renewed
each year. The international ban will help stop the possible investment
coming from ASEAN countries and China.

On suggesting the investment ban, I am in no illusion that economic
sanctions of any form will necessarily bring down the military
dictatorship. However, the sanction will weaken the junta, both
economically and politically. 

HOW SANCTION CAN HELP US POLITICALLY

Regarding economic sanction politically helping  the democracy movement,
we can draw an example in early 1997.  It is noticeable that we, as a
movement, encounter less attack from various sources in USA after
President Clinton imposed investment ban on Burma. It can even notice
that on Internet we have less disruption since that ban. The thing is
that there will be some 'poke around' by the bussinesses to make money
in Burma in long and short terms. It means there will be attacks on
existing sanctions imposed by EU and US.  Such action by business will
interrupt our campaign against the military junta. If we get the UN
imposed investment ban, we can fight SLORC without much disruptions.

FREE-MARKET FORCES: FRIENDS AND FOES

We can roughly classify three distinct financial institutions that we
encounter in our struggle. First, there are international financial
institutions such as IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank etc. These
institutions appears to operate in a more friendly fashion to the
democracy movement.

Second, there are independent businesses, such as TOTAL/UNOCAL etc.
These bussinesses have a law of their own. Unless the democracy movement
can exercise our own power, these business will not become helpers of
democracy movement.

Third, there are independent investors (fund managers etc). They are
difficult to control and, mostly, unreliable to draw upon as useful
political force for democracy movement. The effect of these independent
investors have already been seen in recent years. In around 1994, these
investors had poured their monies into Thai economy, in which Burmese
military indirectly benefitted from it. By the end of 1996, and
noticeably after Burma gain ASEAN membership in 97, these investors
withdrawn their investments. The democratic changes in Thailand, South
Korea and, recently, Indonesia (plus East Timor) can be undoubtely
attributed to the panic suffered by these independent investors.

Without a doubt, that panic in the ASEAN financial market had been
brought about by bigger players in the US markets. By looking back on
those the events,  we can estimate financial power of these players. For
example, Pregerine Investment Bank of Hong Kong, once mighty financial
power house for Asia and staunch supporter to authoritarian regimes,
went down in ASEAN financial crisis. All in all, we can be certain that
the democracy movements are not without friends in these financial
markets.

BURMA INVESTMENT BAN WILL BE GOOD FOR ASEAN

It will be in the interest of ASEAN countries and China to support the
investment ban on Burma. This will isolate troublesome issue of Burma
and ASEAN can rebuild its economy without disruption. The ASEAN
countries can co-sponsor Burma resolution at this United Naitons General
Assembly as first practical step towards their economic  recovery.

With best regards, U Ne Oo.


***********************************************
Foreign investment in Myanmar sharply drops

 Xinhua, Yangon 18 October 1999.  foreign investment in .Myanmar
amounted to only 11.823 million U.S. dollars in the first half of this
year, plummeting by 94.73 percent from the same period of last year when
224.482 million dollars came in. During the half-year period, Myanmar
absorbed investment from India, Thailand, Japan and Indonesia with 4.5
million dollars, 4.5 million dollars, 1.446 million dollars and 1.377
million dollars respectively, according to the latest figures published
by the country's Central Statistical Organization.

Of the total, 7.323 million dollars were injected into manufacturing
sector in three projects, 3.5 million dollars into hotels and tourism
sector in one project and 1 million dollars into mining sector in one
project. The sharp drop of foreign investment was mainly attributed to
the impact of the Asian financial crisis. The Myanmar government openly
admitted recently that due to the effect of the crisis, direct
investment from member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian
Nations reduced by 70 percent. According to the statistics, since
Myanmar opened to foreign investment in late 1988, the country has drawn
a total of 7.1 billion dollars from 24 countries and regions. The 10
major foreign investors lined up as Britain, Singapore, Thailand,
Malaysia, France, the United States, Indonesia, the Netherlands, the
Philippines and Japan. China ranked the 14th with 30.826 million
dollars.


Myanmar gets less customs duties income 

Xinhua, Yangon, 18 October 1999. Myanmar gained a total of only 389
million U.S.  dollars in customs duties in the first half of this year,
46.34 percent less than the 725 million dollars it obtained in the same
period of last year, according to the latest figures released by the
country's Central Statistical Organization. 

Of the total customs duties income, that obtained from import through
normal trade  amounted to as high as 339 million dollars, accounting for
87.14 percent of the total,  while that gained from import through
border trade was only 46.33 million dollars,  accounting for 11.9
percent. The figures also show that in 1998, Myanmar received a total of
1.135 billion dollars of custom duties income, a reduction of  10.9
percent compared with 1997 when the figure was 1.274 billion dollars.

In recent years,  Myanmar has made some adjustments in the rate of
customs duties in an effort to  boost the development of agriculture. It
exempted import duties on agricultural implements  including machinery,
pesticide and fertilizer while raising import duties on luxury goods. 

Myanmar-Singapore bilateral trade falls

Xinhua, Yangon 20 October 1999.  The value of the bilateral trade
between Myanmar and Singapore fell by 7.4 percent to 419.96 million U.S.
dollars in the first half of this year from 453.72 million dollars in
the same period of last year. During the first half, Myanmar's imports
from Singapore amounted to 367.42 million dollars, dropping by 8.9
percent from 403.55 million dollars in the corresponding period of last
year, the official economic indicators said in its latest issue.
Meanwhile, Myanmar's exports to Singapore stood at 52.54 million
dollars, increasing by 4.7 percent over the same period of last year
which recorded 50.17 million dollars. The indicators also show that in
1998, Myanmar-Singapore bilateral trade was as high as 992.33 million
dollars, with Myanmar's imports from Singapore amounting to 879.81
million dollars while exports to Singapore standing at only 112.52
million dollars.

Singapore has become Myanmar's largest trading partner with its
bilateral trade with Myanmar accounting for 25 percent of the country's
total foreign trade annually. Singapore is also Myanmar's leading
investor with 1.087 billion dollars injected into the country in 46
projects in the past five years, which accounted for 19.27 percent of
the 5.6415 billion dollars of total foreign investment flowing into the
country in the period.

Myanmar-Japan bilateral trade drops slightly

Xinhua, Yangon 20 October 1999.  The bilateral trade between Myanmar and
Japan was 149.9 million U.S. dollars in the first half of this year,
down 0.3 percent from the same period of last year which registered
150.49 million dollars. The official economic indicators said in its
latest issue that Myanmar's import from Japan was valued at 122  million
dollars, 10.29 percent less than the 136 million dollars in the
corresponding period of last year.

Meanwhile, Myanmar's export to Japan in the period stood at 27.9 million
dollars, increasing by 92.54 percent over the same period of last year
which recorded 14.49 million dollars. In recent years, Myanmar has
strengthened its economic cooperation with Japan. In the past five
years, Myanmar absorbed investment amounting to 123 million dollars from
Japan in 16 projects, which accounted for 2.18 percent of the total
foreign investment of 5.6415 billion dollars flowing into Myanmar during
the period. Japan ranks the 10th among the countries and regions
investing in Myanmar. The five leading investors are Britain, Singapore,
Thailand, Malaysia and France, with a total investment of 4.3248 billion
dollars or 76.66 percent of Myanmar's total foreign investment.


Myanmar-Thai bilateral trade falls this year 

Xinhua, Yangon 21 Ocrober 1999. Bilateral trade between Myanmar and
Thailand amounted to 174.54 million U.S. dollars in the first half of
this year, falling by 30.16 percent from the 249.93 million dollars
registered in the same period of last year. In the half-year period,
Myanmar's imports from Thailand stood at 148.89 million dollars, a drop
of 18.5 percent from the same period of last year which saw 182.69
million dollars, according to the latest economic indicators issued by
the Central Statistical Organization. Meanwhile, Myanmar's exports to
Thailand were 25.65 million dollars, down by 61.85 percent from 67.24
million dollars in the corresponding period of last year. The indicators
also show that the bilateral trade between Myanmar and Thailand reached
441.38 million dollars in 1998. Myanmar's imports from Thailand were
valued at 348.15 million dollars in the year, while its exports to
Thailand were worth 93.23 million dollars. Thailand is Myanmar's second
major trading partner after Singapore. The two countries' bilateral
trade accounts for 11.14 percent of Myanmar's annual foreign trade.
Thailand ranks the third among foreign countries and regions investing
in Myanmar after Britain and Singapore. In the past five years, Myanmar
has absorbed 961.2 million dollars of investment from Thailand in 27
projects, which accounted for 17.03 percent of the country's 5.6415
billion dollars of total foreign investment during the period. 

Myanmar's fish, prawn export falls 

Xinhua, Yangon, 21 October 1999.   Myanmar exported 24,600 tons of fish
and prawn in the first half of this year, a 14.58 percent drop from the
same period of last year which was 28,800 tons. Of the total, fish
accounted for 19,400 tons and prawn 5,200 tons, according to the latest
figures released by the country's Central Statistical Organization.
Meanwhile, export earnings of fish and prawn in the half-year period
totaled 56.79 million U.S. dollars, 21.4 percent less than that obtained
in the corresponding period of last year which was 72.26 million
dollars. Myanmar annually produces over 910,000 tons of fish and prawn,
of which over 240,000 tons are fresh water fish and prawn, and 670,000
tons are deep sea fish and prawn. According to the statistics, in 1998
Myanmar's export of fish and prawn totaled 62,400 tons with an earning
of 159.38 million dollars. since Myanmar adopted an open economic policy
in late 1988, foreign investment injected into the fishery sector has
reached 197 million dollars in 11 projects. 

Myanmar's cement production drops 

Xinhua, Yangon, 22 October 1999. Myanmar produced a total of 159,588
tons of cement in the first half of this year, a drop of 22.65 percent
compared with the same period of last year, according to the latest
figures of the Central Statistical Organization. The figures also show
that in the whole of 1998, Myanmar produced a total of 364,959 tons of
cement. 

In recent years, Myanmar has speeded up the pace of infrastructural
construction of roads, bridges and dams, resulting in a shortage of
cement. To meet the rising demand for cement, Myanmar plans to build
more cement plants. It is learnt that Myanmar is trying to get a foreign
loan of 150 million U.S. dollars to build a 4,000-ton-capacity cement
plant. On the other hand, Myanmar is spending a large sum of foreign
exchange to buy in cement. In fiscal 1998-99 which ended in March,
Myanmar imported a total of 65.55 million dollars' worth of cement. The
country mainly imports cement from China and Indonesia. 

Myanmar's crude oil production drops slightly 

 Xinhua, Yangon, 25 October 1999.   Myanmar produced a total of 1.66
million barrels of crude oil in the first half of this year, a 4.2
percent drop compared with the same period of last year which was 1.733
million barrels. According to the latest data published by the country's
central statistical organization, the output of natural gas was 852
million cubic-meters during the period, a 3.97 percent reduction over
the corresponding period of last year which was 887.3 million
cubic-meters. In 1998, Myanmar produced a total of 3.424 million barrels
of crude oil and 1.749 billion cubic-meters of natural gas, respectively
reducing by 6.5 percent and 2 percent over 1997. Since Myanmar opened to
foreign investment in late 1988, foreign investment in the oil and gas
sector coming from Australia, Britain, France, Indonesia, Japan,
Thailand and the United States had reached 2.3 billion U.S. dollars in
46 projects, accounting for 32.39 percent of the total foreign
investment of 7.108 billion dollars. Until now, Myanmar's crude oil and
petroleum products are still self-insufficient and the country has to
import 280,000 to 300,000 tons of crude oil and 100,000 to 150,000 tons
of diesel oil annually, according to the official statistics. 

Electric power production drops in Myanmar 

Xinhua, Yangon, 25 October 1999.   Electric power generated by the
state-run Myanma Electric Power Enterprise (MEPE), the main electricity
supplier of the country, totaled 1.979 billion kilowatt-hours (kwh) in
the first half of this year, a 12.82 percent drop compared with the same
period of last year which was 2.27 billion kwh.

Acording to the latest figures of the official economic indicators, the
installed capacity of the MEPE was 1,058 megawatts (mw) by the end of
June this year. The figures also show that in 1998, the MEPE produced a
total of 4.3 billion kwh of electricity. Other official statistics
indicate that the MEPE added a total installed capacity of 509 mw in the
past 11 years, of which natural gas power plants represented 255 mw,
while steam power plants took up 143 mw and hydro-electric power plants
111 mw.

Meanwhile, Myanmar is implementing five more hydro-electric power plants
--Paunglaung, Zaungtu, Mone, Thaphanseik and Maipan. Of them,
Paunglaung, Mone and Thaphanseik are being built by China. The five
power plants, upon completion, will add 407 mw more to Myanmar's
electric power installed capacity and will ease the serious shortage
problem of electricity in Myanmar.

Tourist arrivals drop in Myanmar 

Xinhua, Yangon, 26 October 1999.   A total of 138,561 foreign  tourists
visited Myanmar in the first half of this year and 80,572  of them came
by land routes through border points.  The latest figures of the
official economic indicators show that  the number of tourist arrivals
during the half-year period dropped  by 1.57  percent compared with the
same period of last year. 

The figures also show that in 1998, a total of 279,335 foreign  tourists
came to Myanmar which earned just over 33 million  U.S. dollars from
tourism in the year. 

Up to the end of March this year, there was a total of 492 hotels  in
operation in Myanmar with 13,984 rooms.  There were also 521  licensed
tour companies including 508 local companies, 12 joint  ventures and one
foreign company. 

The country hopes to boost the number of tourist arrivals to 500,000 
annually. Since Myanmar adopted the open-door economic policy  in late
1988, foreign investment in the sector of hotels and tourism  has
reached 1.1 billion dollars in 30 projects. 

Myanmar needs to import more edible oil 

Xinhua, Yangon, 27 October 1999. Myanmar's domestic production of
edible  oil is not meeting its demand and it still has to import a large
amount of such oil. 

According to the latest figures released by the country's Central
Statistical Organization, Myanmar imported a total of 53.4 million U.S.
dollars' worth of edible  oil in the first half of this year, 12.6
percent less than the same period of last year. 

The statistics also show that in 1998, Myanmar imported a total of 121.7
million  dollars' worth of edible oil. The figure for 1997 was 124.7
million dollars. Myanmar's  population is growing at an annual rate of 2
percent. 

As there is no corresponding adjustment of the cultivated area of oil
crops with  less per-hectare output, Myanmar is still insufficient with
edible oil. To strive for  self-sufficiency in the oil, Myanmar has
leased out large plots of vacant and virgin  land to be run by private
entrepreneurs, providing the oil crop growers with agricultural loans
and granting advance payment for the crops. 

Myanmar's income from taxes drops 

Xinhua, Yangon, 27 October 1999. Myanmar's State Internal Revenue 
Department collected a total of 27.521 billion kyats (91.7 million U.S.
dollars)  of taxes in the first half of this year, a 2.5 percent drop
from the same period  of last year. According to the latest official
economic indicators, in the  half-year period, Myanmar also gained a
total of 389 million dollars from customs  duties, a fall of 46.34
percent.  

To cope with the impact of the Asian financial crisis, the Myanmar
government  has adopted some new policies to collect taxes in the
country in recent years. Exemption of customs duties on the import of
agricultural implements, including  related machinery, pesticide and
fertilizer, was among the measures taken to  ensure that agriculture,
the mainstay of the country's economy, is not effected. 

Other measures include raising the customs duties of luxury goods
imported  and levying an 8 percent commercial tax on commodities sold in
foreign currencies beginning  January 1, 1999. 
-- 
HTTP://www.physics.adelaide.edu.au/~uneoo
EMAILS: drunoo@xxxxxxxxxxxx, uneoo@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
POSTMAIL: Dr U Ne Oo, 18 Shannon Place, Adelaide SA 5000, AUSTRALIA
[http://freeburma.org/[http://www.angelfire.com/al/homepageas/index.htm]
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