economic mystery

[susuhuang@xxxxxxxxxxx]

>From: David Arnott <darnott@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>
>DAVID ARNOTT'S REQUEST:
>
>Could someone with more economic analytical skills than I have, explain to
>us how it is possible for a country to regularly export about twice what it
>imports.

dear david! susu to rescue!

if you look at figures again i think you see that imports are twice exports, 
not other way! ok, so how can that happen? easy! called trade deficit! big 
question is, need hard currency earnings (from exports) to pay for imports. 
so where does money come from? easy in normal country: loan and reserves.

ok, now gets interesting. burma does not get loan from world bank, adb, etc, 
right? and hard currency reserves mostly gone, right? so - BIG MYSTERY! 
maybe from UNOFFICIAL sources? susu says YES! or MAYBE YES! nobody know. BUT 
- big illegal gem exports, teak exports, drug exports, etc etc because spdc 
does not have trade apparatus, so black market. HUGE i tell you. also 
commerce ministry still very corrupt, even though tun kyi (big crook) 
removed from job in 1997. BUT - people with export income now in very strong 
position! watch carefully!

also possible: imports from china! biggest trading partner! china says, "ok 
do not pay now, pay later or do us favor!" so, import numbers INFLATED! get 
value of goods but no need to pay cash! uh oh, even i am part chinese and i 
worry!!

ok. welcome to burma economy, big mystery.

love from, susu who has no money herself!

>
>Year		Total exports 		Total imports		Exports as % of total trade
>                         (million Kyat)		(million Kyat
>1993/94    	4,227.8  		7,923.3 			34.794
>1994/95  	5,405.2 		8,332.3				39.339
>1995/96  	5,032.7 		10,301.6			32.819
>1996/97  	5,487.7 		11,778.8 			31.786
>1997/98  	6,290.0 		13,860.2			31.220
>

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