MYANMAR EXPORTS 40,000 TONS OF RICE (r)

[absdf88@xxxxxxxxx]

Subject: Re: MYANMAR EXPORTS 40,000 TONS OF RICE

There is a double-sided problem with this statistic. Burma has been
importing rice from China more than two years since flood hit some
rice-cultivation areas. The sign of food shortage is obvious according to
the UN's statistic. Recently the junta distributed rice to people in
potentially uprising areas in Rangoon because of the concern on 9999
movements. Not only rice but also teak is currently increasing export
material. Fishing permits have been sold to Thai and other countries. These
all situations resemble to the Slorc's managements just after 1988 uprising.
The junta had to sell every thing to fullfill its need of foregin currency.
This is just one side of the problem.

The other side comes with the consequences that resulted from accomplishing
the different side of the problem. World Resources Institute, environmental
scientist group, briefed about forest depleation and imminent  environmental
crisis in the regime at the Burma Round Table in August 1998. Suprisingly
representatives (including deputy) from the junta's embassy attended the
round table because the report that the group compiled had possible impact
on UN's subsidised program in Burma.

However the junta realizes the consequence of forest depleation. Lawpita
hydro-power dam was hit by a serious drought that caused electricity
shortage. But the junta has to try hard to survive its financial crisis. The
Spdc's financial crisis becomes apparant when it has to cut supply for its
own troops. Tin Oo even spoke to military units to stand by their own ways.
Result goes further than we expected. Every unit establishs its own area for
extortion on whatever kind of commerce including drug traffiking. Sometime
even companies in a same battalion ended up their dispute on economic
survival  with gun fights.  The units do not fight hard any more. Even they
imploy 2-4 divisions to attack the KNU's camp which is confined in no more
than three square mile, they can not crash the KNU troops except occupying
little empty huts and stepping land mines. Discouraged Spdc troops,
including commanders in units, lie the command post-- they reported wrong
location if they are ordered to clear a particular area even though they did
not reach. Mae Sot receives SPDC deserters ever day from Burma side. But
these deserters dare not speak out because of deportation threat by Thai
authority. The most supprising information is that those armed opposition
groups along the border reported they purchased ammunitions with a much
cheaper price from the Spdc units  comparing that of Thai smugglers. Many
Spdc units wrote letters or sent message to the groups maneuvering in their
areas not to attack their troops.
All these signs project the Spdc's weakening economic infrastructure and
pillars. Unless international institutions or particular countries bail the
Spdc out of the financial crisis, it won't survive in this situation.

MZO