Stratfor on the Embassy

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            Embassy Attack to Hold Myanmar Opposition Hostage? (10/01/99)

            Twelve men armed with assault rifles and grenades stormed the Myanmar 
Embassy in Bangkok Oct. 1, taking around 30-40 hostages. Unconfirmed reports 
indicate that several foreigners, including an American, are among the hostages. 
Myanmar¹s ambassador is reportedly safe outside the embassy. The attack will 
also result in serious strategic damage to Myanmar¹s dissident movement. 
            The hostage takers, who call themselves the "Vigorous Burmese Students 
Warriors," demanded that Myanmar free all political prisoners, enter into negoti-
ations with opposition parties and convene a democratic parliament. Mainline 
dissident groups quickly denied involvement with the attack. "We are not involv-
ed in this, we don¹t want to support terrorist actions," said a spokesman for the 
All Burma Students¹ Democratic Front. 
            Though Thailand often turns a blind eye to low-level anti-Myanmar activity  
(and corresponding anti-dissident activity) within its borders, it has definite lim-
its on foreign activity. For example, in March, the Thai government expelled six 
North Korean diplomats for their role in an attempted kidnapping of three North 
Korean defectors living in Thailand. An embassy takeover would most likely be 
outside these limits. 
             Strategically, this attack is a blow to Myanmar dissident groups, many of 
whom use Thailand as a base of operations. They will be linked with the terrorists 
regardless of any actual connections. An expulsion from Thailand would either 
send dissidents back to Myanmar, where they will be cut off from outside assist-
ance, or to their supporters in Australia and Britain, which would keep them from 
having any practical impact on Myanmar. The government of Myanmar may have 
lost an embassy, but it has won a significant battle. 

            Thailand Rescues Embassy Situation (10/09/99)

            Dissatisfied with Thailand¹s resolution of the Myanmar embassy takeover, 
Myanmar revoked Thai fishing concessions worth $300 million this week. This 
comes after a week of diatribes against Bangkok for its perceived softness toward 
the terrorists. Though Thailand¹s ties with Myanmar are currently suffering, Bang-
kok has been able to use the incident to its advantage.
            Thai officials found their options severely constrained after a group called 
the Vigorous Burmese Students Warriors took over Myanmar¹s embassy in Bang-
kok on Oct. 1. An assault on the compound could have resulted in deaths to host-
ages, which included Westerners, as well as to terrorists. Western nations would 
not have accepted the deaths of their own citizens and the Western media would 
have crucified Thailand for killing such heroic "student activists."
            The other options weren¹t much better. Capturing the terrorists and hand-
ing them over to Myanmar would also be condemned by the West. And a settle-
ment resulting in a trial would end up spotlighting their dissidents, something My-
anmar did not want. As a result, Thailand took the best available option, rescuing 
the hostages and washing its hands of the terrorists.
            Their ensuing diplomatic confrontation with Myanmar looks worse than it 
really is. The two countries have a stormy history, in which provocative disputes 
have been quickly quelled. For example, in January, a Thai patrol boat opened 
fire on an armed Myanmar fishing boat. But within a week a joint-naval patrol 
and "hotline" were established.
            Meanwhile, Thailand has used the embassy takeover as a pretext for some 
long-awaited housecleaning. The government decided to expel Myanmar student 
activists who enter Thailand illegally. This action removes a frequent source of 
contention with between the two countries. Thailand is as well gathering internat-
ional support for its repatriation of southeast Asian refugees living near the Thai-
land-Myanmar border, thus decreasing illegal cross-border incidents that have 
strained relations with the two neighbors.
            Thailand has thus capitalized on an awkward situation. Removing the dissi-
dents and relocating the refugees may end up improving relations with Myanmar 
in the long run.

STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update: www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary

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